Strength
ASII’s Jul-24 MoM sales decline of -0.3% was slightly better than industry’s (-0.6% MoM) and non-ASII’s performance (-1.0% MoM), with Toyota and Lexus posting positive sales growth of +6.5% MoM; ASII’s 7M24 LCGC market share rose to 81% (7M23: 72%), which we attribute primarily to downtrading
Weakness
Weak overall 4W sales in Jul-24 (-0.6% MoM; -7.9% YoY), even with GIIAS; for comparison, GIIAS 2023 led to double-digit MoM growth in 4W sales of +10.5%
Opportunity
Potential rate cuts and slight improvement in economic growth from 4.9% in 2024 to 5% in 2025 may boost 4W demand; market underperformance provides buying opportunities
Threat
The mandatory TPL insurance regulation in 2025F and higher VAT for hybrid cars may dampen overall 4W demand; stock under-performance may persist on foreign selling as the stock is widely held, coupled with potential downward revisions of total 4W sales
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