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Daily Report

07 December 2023

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Yield 10Y UST sentuh 4.1% akibat ekspektasi dovish pivot The Fed

Aksi beli obligasi di pasar global terus berlanjut tadi malam, yang ditandai dengan penurunan yield 10Y UST dan Bund masing-masing sebesar -6 dan -5 bps menjadi 4.1% dan 2.2%. Aksi beli ini juga berdampak positif terhadap obligasi di emerging market, yang tercermin dari kenaikan indeks EMBI 0.6%. Berlanjutnya sentimen bullish di pasar global tadi malam disebabkan oleh ekspektasi dovish pivot The Fed yang semakin menguat dengan kemungkinan pemangkasan suku bunga pertama dimulai pada 1Q24 atau tepatnya di bulan Maret. Pasar memperkirakan The Fed akan memangkas suku bunga sebesar 125 bps menjadi 4.25% tahun ini. Namun, ekspektasi ini masih perlu diuji dengan rilis data pasar tenaga kerja AS hari Jumat (8/12) dan inflasi CPI hari Selasa pekan depan (12/12). Pasar memperkirakan non-farm payrolls akan naik menjadi 180,000 (Oct: 150,000) dan tingkat pengangguran bertahan 3.9%. Kami memprediksi yield 10Y INDOGB bergerak sideways hari ini di rentang 6.55-6.65% yang diikuti fluktuasi yield 2Y dan 5Y INDOGB di rentang 6.5-6.6%. Sementara itu, Rupiah diperkirakan bergerak stabil di rentang IDR 15,500-15,600 per USD.

Fixed Income News: DOID tawarkan obligasi senilai IDR 1.5tn melalui anak usaha BUMA. PT Bukit Makmur Mandiri Utama (BUMA) yang adalah anak usaha PT Delta Dunia Makmur  melakukan penawaran Obligasi I BUMA Tahun 2023 dengan total IDR 1.5tn untuk periode penawaran tanggal 4-8 Desember. Obligasi ini terbagi menjadi 3 seri, yaitu Seri A dengan tenor 370 hari, Seri B dengan tenor 3 tahun, dan Seri C dengan tenor 5 tahun. (Kontan)

Global Economic News: Fed Atlanta menurunkan nowcasting pertumbuhan PDB AS 4Q23 menjadi 1.3% (Oct: 2.3%, Nov: 1.8%). Proyeksi pertumbuhan PDB Federal Reserve wilayah Atlanta menunjukkan pelemahan ekonomi yang berlangsung secara bertahap di Amerika Serikat dan sesuai dengan proyeksi consensus di 0.8% qoq SAAR. Menurut kami, ekonomi AS yang semakin melemah akan mendorong The Fed untuk mempertahankan suku bunga acuan FFR di 5.5% pada bulan Desember. (Federal Reserve Atlanta)

Domestic Economic News: Kementerian ESDM menolak usulan Pertamina untuk naikkan kuota solar bersubsidi. Kementerian Energi dan Sumber Daya Mineral (ESDM) memastikan menolak usulan menaikkan kuota solar bersubsidi dari 16.8 juta menjadi 18.1 juta kiloliter. Keputusan ini berisiko menimbulkan kelangkaan solar bersubsidi di akhir tahun, yang akan memiliki dampak negatif terhadap inflasi. Saat ini, sejumlah di Jawa dan Luar Jawa mulai mengalami kelangkaan solar bersubsidi, seperti di Sragen, Bontang, Bitung, dst. (Kompas)

Recommendation: FR0096, FR0097, FR0098, FR0100, FR0101.

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Samuel's Daily Macro and Fixed Income Report 7 Desember 2023 (Ind)
Samuel's Daily Macro and Fixed Income Report 7 Desember 2023 (Eng)

Download PDF

Samuel's Daily Macro and Fixed Income Report 7 Desember 2023 (Ind)
Samuel's Daily Macro and Fixed Income Report 7 Desember 2023 (Eng)

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