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Daily Report

11 September 2023

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Waspadai volatilitas pasar jelang rilis data inflasi CPI AS hari Rabu (13/9) dan akibat depresiasi CNY

Pasar saham dan obligasi global mengalami rebound pada Jumat lalu (8/9) sesuai dengan perkiraan kami akibat revisi turun pertumbuhan GDP zona Euro dan Jepang 2Q23, yang meredam kemungkinan naiknya harga minyak mentah global hingga USD 100 per bbl. Akan tetapi, kami memperkirakan volatilitas pasar masih akan tetap tinggi menjelang rilis data inflasi CPI Amerika Serikat hari Rabu (13/9) yang diperkirakan melonjak naik menjadi 3.6% yoy (Jul: 3.2% yoy). Walaupun demikian, inflasi inti CPI AS diperkirakan masih akan turun ke 4.3% yoy (Jul: 4.7% yoy) kalau laju inflasi inti bulanan bertahan di 0.2% mom. Selain inflasi AS, volatilitas pasar juga akan dipengaruhi oleh depresiasi CNY yang telah menembus batas intervensi nilai tukar Bank Sentral Tiongkok (PBOC) di 7.34. Kami memperkirakan yield 10Y INDOGB akan terkonsolidasi di rentang 6.5-6.6%. Sedangkan, Rupiah masih akan melanjutkan depresiasi menuju rentang IDR 15,300-15,400 per USD hari ini. Kami mempertahankan rekomenasi overweight 2Y INDOGB dengan target yield 6% dan target yield spread INDOGB 10Y Vs. 2Y di 40 bps (8/9: 26 bps).

Fixed Income News: RUPO WSKT tolak penundaan pembayaran kupon bunga tanggal 28 September. Ketidaksetujuan ini dinyatakan oleh para pemegang Obligasi Berkelanjutan III Tahap III Tahun 2018. Sehingga pembayaran kupon bunga ke-18, -19, dan -20 akan tetap dilaksanakan pada tanggal 28 September senilai IDR 91.82bn. Besaran nilai pokok obligasi ini adalah IDR 941.75bn. (Bisnis Indonesia)

Global Economic News: Inflasi CPI Tiongkok melonjak keluar dari zona deflasi pada bulan Agustus menjadi 0.1% yoy (Jul: -0.3% yoy; Cons: 0.1% yoy). Walaupun inflasi PPI Tiongkok masih berada di dalam zona deflasi, terjadi kenaikan menjadi -3% yoy (Jul: -4.4% yoy; Cons: -3% yoy). Meskipun ada peningkatan, kami memperkirakan investor masih akan bersikap waspada mengantisipasi rilis data aktivitas ekonomi Tiongkok Jumat ini (15/9). (Caixin)

Domestic Economic News: Indeks kepercayaan konsumen naik menjadi 125.2 pada bulan Agustus (Jul: 123.5). Kenaikan tersebut dipicu oleh membaiknya persepsi konsumen atas kondisi penghasilan mereka saat ini, yang selanjutnya mendorong mereka untuk membeli produk-produk tahan lama, seperti barang elektronik, otomotif, dsb. Selain itu, konsumen juga merasa optimis terhadap prospek pasar tenaga kerja maupun dunia usaha selama 6 bulan mendatang. Kami akan mengkonfirmasi peningkatan persepsi konsumen dengan rilis indeks penjualan rill yang akan dirilis siang ini. (Bank Indonesia)

Recommendation: FR0040, FR0056, FR0081, FR0084, FR0086, FR0096, FR0097, FR0098.

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Samuel's Daily Macro and Fixed Income Report 11 September 2023 (Eng)
Samuel's Daily Macro and Fixed Income Report 11 September 2023 (Ind)

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Samuel's Daily Macro and Fixed Income Report 11 September 2023 (Eng)
Samuel's Daily Macro and Fixed Income Report 11 September 2023 (Ind)

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