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Daily Report

19 December 2023

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Waspadai overbought instrumen INDOGB dan INDON

Pasar SBN mencatat aksi beli terbatas kemarin (18/12) seiring meluasnya sentimen dovish pivot dari The Fed ke Bank Sentral Eropa (ECB). Yield 10Y INDOGB turun -5 bps menjadi 6.52%, jauh lebih rendah dari batas bawah JIBOR 1M (6.66%). Yield 10Y dan 5Y INDON juga mencatat penurunan masing-masing sebesar -3 dan -2 bps menjadi 4.89% dan 4.63%. Kami melihat kemungkinan overbought terhadap kedua instrumen tersebut. Overbought instrumen INDOGB terjadi pada tenor 10Y dengan posisi yield saat ini 14 bps lebih rendah dari batas bawah JIBOR 1M. Sementara itu, overbought instrumen INDON terpantau dari selisih yield 10Y INDON Vs. UST saat ini sebesar 97 bps yang lebih rendah dari rerata setahun maupun 6 bulan terakhir (118 bps). Apabila aksi beli di pasar UST tertahan di resisten teknikal yield 10Y UST 3.8%, maka instrumen INDON berpeluang mengalami koreksi yang cukup tajam. Kami memprediksi yield 10Y INDOGB akan tertahan di level 6.5-6.6% hari ini, diikuti fluktuasi Rupiah di rentang IDR 15,450-15,550 per USD.

Fixed Income News: Kementerian Keuangan akan laksanakan lelang SBSN terakhir untuk 2023 hari ini dengan target indikatif IDR 9tn. Berkaca pada kenaikan permintaan di lelang SBSN sebelumnya (5/12: IDR 19.8tn; 21/11: IDR 18.6tn), kami memperkirakan permintaan pada lelang SBSN hari ini akan relatif stabil dalam kisaran IDR 17-21tn. Jumlah penerbitan SBSN baru diperkirakan melebihi target indikatif seperti di lelang-lelang sebelumnya (5/12: IDR 9.1tn; 21/11: IDR 9.7tn). Kemenkeu juga akan melakukan reopening bid bagi seri baru PBS038 (tenor 26 tahun). (DJPPR)

Global Economic News: Indeks iklim bisnis IFO Jerman turun di bulan Desember menjadi 86.4 (Nov: 87.2; Cons: 87.8). Penurunan ini disebabkan oleh memburuknya persepsi para pelaku bisnis terhadap kondisi ekonomi dalam 6 bulan terakhir maupun 6 bulan ke depan. Hal ini tercermin dari turunnya IFO current assessment menjadi 88.5 (Nov: 89.4; Cons: 89.5) dan IFO business expectations menjadi 84.3 (Nov: 85.1; Cons: 85.8). Penurunan indeks IFO Jerman mengkonfirmasi kemungkinan resesi ekonomi yang dihadapi oleh zona Euro pada kuartal ini (4Q23). (Investing)

Domestic Economic News: Kementerian ESDM memperbarui formula harga dasar BBM jenis tertentu. BBM yang dimaksud adalah minyak tanah dan minyak solar yang mendapat subsidi dari pemerintah. Formula harga dasar untuk minyak tanah adalah 102.49% dikali dengan harga indeks pasar (HIP) minyak tanah ditambah IDR 263 per liter. Formula harga dasar minyak solar adalah 100% dikali HIP minyak solar ditambah IDR 868 per ltr. Subsidi untuk minyak solar tidak berubah sebesar IDR 1,000 per ltr. Formula ini dituangkan dalam Keputusan Menteri ESDM No. 439 K/MG.01/MEM.M/2023. (Emitennews)

Recommendation: FR0096, FR0097, FR0098, FR0100, FR0101.

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Samuel's Daily Macro and Fixed Income Report 19 Desember 2023 (Ind)
Samuel's Daily Macro and Fixed Income Report 19 Desember 2023 (Eng)

Download PDF

Samuel's Daily Macro and Fixed Income Report 19 Desember 2023 (Ind)
Samuel's Daily Macro and Fixed Income Report 19 Desember 2023 (Eng)

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