Research & Stock Picks

Daily Report

16 May 2023

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Waspadai koreksi pasar obligasi emerging market

Pasar obligasi global tertekan aksi jual yang terpusat di instrumen obligasi negara-negara berkembang kemarin malam (16/5). Indeks EMBI obligasi negara-negara berkembang turun cukup signifikan sebesar -0.7%. Akibatnya indeks S&P obligasi negara-negara maju ikut turun sebesar -0.2%. Di pasar obligasi Indonesia, koreksi ini berdampak lebih besar terhadap instrumen INDON dibandingkan INDOGB yang mengalami kenaikan imbal hasil (yield) untuk semua tenor masing-masing sebesar 7 bps menjadi 4.46% (2-tahun), 4 bps menjadi 4.38% (5-tahun) dan 5 bps menjadi 4.57% (10-tahun). Kami memperkirakan yield INDOGB 10-tahun akan tertekan di rentang 6.4-6.5% hari ini. Sementara itu, Rupiah berpotensi terkonsolidasi dalam rentang IDR 14,750-14,850 per USD.

Fixed Income News: Kementerian Keuangan akan melakukan lelang SUN hari ini dengan target indikatif IDR 17tn. Target ini setara dengan lelang SUN terakhir yang dilakukan pada tanggal 11 April. Berkaca pada jumlah penawaran masuk dalam lelang SUN tersebut serta lelang SBSN pada tanggal 9 Mei lalu yang mencapai nilai masing-masing sebesar IDR 45tn dan IDR 40.7tn, kami memperkirakan permintaan SUN di pasar utama masih akan tinggi. Kami juga memprediksi Kementerian Keuangan akan melanjutkan kebijakan pembatasan suplai SUN dengan menerbitkan SUN lebih rendah dari target indikatif seperti pada lelang tanggal 11 April lalu. (DJPPR)

Global Economic News: Pertumbuhan PDB Thailand naik melebihi konsensus pada 1Q23 menjadi 2.7% yoy atau 1.9% qoq (4Q22: 1.4% yoy atau -1.1% qoq, Cons 1Q23: 2.3% yoy atau 1.7% qoq). Pertumbuhan PDB Thailand dan Malaysia (1Q23: 5.6% yoy vs. 4Q22: 7.1% yoy, Cons 1Q23: 4.8% yoy) yang lebih baik dari ekspektasi pasar berpotensi menjadi katalis positif bagi arus masuk modal asing ke Asia Tenggara, termasuk Indonesia. Akan tetapi, kami memperkirakan arus masuk modal asing ke kawasan masih akan tertahan pada bulan ini karena kondisi inflasi dan kebijakan moneter di Eropa yang masih belum kondusif. Bank Sentral Inggris (BOE) berpotensi menaikkan puncak suku bunga terminal menjadi 5% (prev: 4.5%) akibat inflasi dua digit di 10.1% yoy. (Nikkei)

Domestic Economic News: Jumlah utang luar negeri turun pada Maret sebesar -1.9% yoy tapi naik 0.35% mom menjadi USD 402.8bn (Feb: USD401.4bn). Dari estimasi rasio, level utang luar negeri Indonesia terhadap PDB saat ini masih stabil di 30.1% untuk 1Q23 (2022: 30.1%). Menurut kami, utang luar negeri Indonesia tidak akan berdampak negatif terhadap kondisi ekonomi dan stabilitas Rupiah ke depan. (Kontan)

Recommendation: FR0096, FR0097, FR0050, FR0075, FR0079, PBS007, PBS034, PBS035.

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Samuel's Daily Macro and Fixed Income Report 16 Mei 2023 (Ind)
Samuel's Daily Macro and Fixed Income Report 16 Mei 2023 (Eng)

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Samuel's Daily Macro and Fixed Income Report 16 Mei 2023 (Ind)
Samuel's Daily Macro and Fixed Income Report 16 Mei 2023 (Eng)

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