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Daily Report

21 December 2023

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Waspadai batas resisten teknikal yield 10Y UST di 3.8%

Euforia dovish pivot global kembali mendapat dorongan dari rilis indeks keyakinan konsumen AS bulan Desember yang naik melebihi ekspektasi menjadi 110.7 Nov: 101; Cons: 103.8). Menurut hasil survei IKK AS, konsumen merasa optimis dengan bullish rally di pasar finansial, terutama saham, yang mendorong mereka untuk menambah belanja barang-barang tahan lama. Tampaknya para pelaku pasar melihat kondisi ini sebagai feedback effect yang memperkuat optimisme terhadap dovish pivot, yang tercermin dari kenaikan probabilita dimulainya pemangkasan suku bunga The Fed pada bulan Maret sebesar 25 bps menjadi 5.25% menjadi 74% (prev: 64%). Akibatnya, yield 10Y UST, Bund, dan JGB turun masing-masing -8, -5, dan -8 bps menjadi 3.85%, 1.97%, dan 0.56%. Indeks obligasi EMBI untuk emerging market juga naik 0.2%. Kami melihat potensi para pelaku pasar untuk mendorong turun yield 10Y INDOGB ke rentang 6.45-6.55% dan merekomendasikan jual karena selisih yang cukup lebar dengan batas bawah di JIBOR 1M (6.66%). Sementara itu, Rupiah masih akan bergerak stabil pada rentang IDR 15,450-15,550 per USD. Kami merekomendasikan investor untuk berhati-hati karena posisi yield 10Y UST sudah berada dekat dengan batas resisten teknikal di 3.8%.

Fixed Income News: Kementerian Keuangan lakukan debt switch senilai IDR 2.3tn. Jumlah penawaran yang masuk dari peserta lelang tercatat IDR 2.9tn. Debt switch terbesar dicatat oleh seri FR0081 dengan nilai IDR 733bn, yang selanjutnya diikuti oleh seri FR0070 dengan nilai IDR 578bn dan FR0059 IDR 481bn. Seri yang paling diminati adalah seri FR0100 dengan nilai IDR 868tn, yang selanjutnya diikuti oleh seri FR0101 dengan nilai IDR 864tn. (DJPPR)

Global Economic News: Inflasi CPI Britania Raya (UK) turun lebih rendah dari konsensus di bulan November menjadi 3.9% yoy (Oct: 4.6% yoy; Cons: 4.3% yoy). Inflasi inti CPI UK juga turun lebih rendah dari konsensus menjadi 5.1% yoy (Oct: 5.7% yoy; Cons: 5.5% yoy). Menurut kami, pencapaian ini akan memperkuat sentiment dovish pivot di Eropa. Namun, kami memperkirakan timing pemangkasan suku bunga oleh Bank Sentral Inggris (BOE) baru akan dilakukan pada 3Q23 karena tingkat inflasi inti UK yang masih terlalu tinggi (5.1% yoy), dibandingkan dengan zona Euro (3.6% yoy) dan PCE Amerika Serikat (3.5% yoy). (Reuters)

Domestic Economic News: Tingkat pertumbuhan pembiayaan korporasi melambat pada bulan November menjadi saldo bersih tertimbang 14.9% (Oct: 15.7%). Berdasarkan hasil survei Bank Indonesia, penurunan pembiayaan tersebut disebabkan oleh lemahnya tingkat permintaan November yang membuat perusahaan mengurangi kegiatan operasional. Hal ini mendorong korporasi untuk mengurangi pembiayaan dari pinjaman perbankan menjadi 4.6% (Oct: 9.4%). Kebutuhan pembiayaan korporasi untuk 3 bulan ke depan juga diprediksi menurun menjadi saldo bersih tertimbang 27.3% (Oct: 29.1%). (Bank Indonesia)

Recommendation: FR0096, FR0097, FR0098, FR0100, FR0101.

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Samuel's Daily Macro and Fixed Income Report 21 Desember 2023 (Ind)
Samuel's Daily Macro and Fixed Income Report 21 Desember 2023 (Eng)

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Samuel's Daily Macro and Fixed Income Report 21 Desember 2023 (Ind)
Samuel's Daily Macro and Fixed Income Report 21 Desember 2023 (Eng)

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