Research & Stock Picks

Daily Report

07 June 2023

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Take profit INDOGB 2Y, waspadai obligasi korporasi

Sesuai dugaan kami, koreksi di pasar obligasi domestik hanya bersifat sementara. Imbal hasil (yield) INDOGB, INDON maupun obligasi korporasi kembali turun pasca-koreksi libur panjang. Akan tetapi, yield  INDOGB 2-tahun berlanjut naik sebesar 7 bps menjadi 5.76%. Kami melihat pergerakan ini sebagai aksi take profit oleh para investor. Aksi take profit ini juga didorong oleh turunnya selisih yield antara UST 10- vs. 2-tahun yang sudah mencapai -82 bps tadi malam (6/6) dibandikan posisi puncak -41 bps pada awal Mei lalu (4/5). Kami juga melihat tekanan bearish yang lebih kuat terhadap yield obligasi korporasi, yang disebabkan oleh peristiwa gagal bayar BUMN Karya serta masih belum jelasnya rencana aksi penyelamatan oleh pemerintah. Kami memprediksi yield INDOGB 10-tahun akan berlanjut menguat ke rentang 6.25-6.35% hari ini. Sementara itu, Rupiah akan melanjutkan konsolidasi dalam rentang IDR 14,850-14,950 per USD.

Fixed Income News: Kementerian Keuangan memperoleh dana IDR 7tn dari lelang SBSN kemarin (6/6). Permintaan atas obligasi di pasar lelang primer melebihi ekspektasi kami. Hal ini tercermin dari naiknya nilai penawaran masuk menjadi IDR 60tn (23/5: IDR 54.8tn). Alokasi terbesar diberikan bagi tenor 25-tahun (PBS033) dan 6-tahun (PBSG001) masing-masing sebesar IDR 2,400tn, yang selanjutnya diikuti oleh tenor 2-tahun (PBS036) sebesar IDR 1,800tn. Dibandingkan dengan lelang sebelumnya, terjadi pergeseran preferensi tenor dari sebelumnya hanya di tenor pendek (PBS036 & PBS003) ke tenor menengah dan sangat panjang. (DJPPR)

Global Economic News: RBA kejutkan pasar dengan kenaikan suku bunga acuan sebesar 25 bps menjadi 4.1% (May: & Cons Jun: 3.85%). Keputusan ini diambil oleh para pejabat Bank Sentral Australia (RBA) dengan mempertimbangkan tekanan inflasi yang masih tinggi sebesar 7% yoy pada 1Q23. Gubernur RBA Philip Lowe menyatakan kenaikan suku bunga acuan masih mungkin berlanjut di bulan-bulan mendatang sebagai upaya meredam inflasi. Berlanjutnya kenaikan suku bunga acuan di kawasan Asia-Pasifik berpotensi mendorong Bank Indonesia untuk lebih berhati-hati dalam memulai siklus pemangkasan suku bunga pada 2H23. (Reuters)

Domestic Economic News: Bank Dunia naikkan proyeksi pertumbuhan GDP FY23 menjadi 4.9% (Prev: 4.8%). Kenaikan proyeksi ini disebabkan oleh proyeksi pertumbuhan ekonomi global serta Asia dan Pasifik FY23 yang lebih optimis masing-masing menjadi 2.1% dan 5.5% (Prev: 1.7% dan 4.3%). Revisi naik ini menunjukkan dampak kebijakan suku bunga tinggi di negara-negara maju tidak seburuk yang diperkirakan sebelumnya. Kami mempertahankan proyeksi pertumbuhan PDB FY23 kami di 4.7% setelah melihat tanda-tanda perlambatan ekonomi pada awal bulan ini. (World Bank Global Economic Prospects)

Recommendation: FR0098, FR0050, FR0079, FR0081, FR0040, FR0084, FR0086, PBS017.

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Samuel's Daily Macro and Fixed Income Report 7 Juni 2023 (Ind)
Samuel's Daily Macro and Fixed Income Report 7 Juni 2023 (Eng)

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Samuel's Daily Macro and Fixed Income Report 7 Juni 2023 (Ind)
Samuel's Daily Macro and Fixed Income Report 7 Juni 2023 (Eng)

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