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22 August 2023

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Support teknikal 10Y INDOGB di 6.6% diuji hari ini (22/08)

Support teknikal 10Y INDOGB di 6.6% diuji hari ini
Koreksi di pasar obligasi domestik berjalan sesuai dengan prediksi kami kemarin (21/8), yang ditandai dengan kenaikan imbal hasil (yield) 10Y INDOGB sebesar 11 bps menuju titik support teknikal 6.62%. Kenaikan yield juga terjadi untuk INDOGB tenor menengah dan pendek (5Y: 9 bps menjadi 6.31%; 2Y: 5 bps menjadi 6.16%) serta INDON seluruh tenor (10Y: 10 bps menjadi 5.37%; 5Y: 10 bps menjadi 5.34%; dan 2Y: 9 bps menjadi 5.5%). Secara keseluruhan indeks ICBI dan IDMA terkoreksi -0.3% dan -0.4%. Menurut kami, titik support yield 10Y INDOGB di 6.6% akan diuji oleh tekanan jual di pasar global semalam, yang muncul akibat pemangkasan suku bunga loan prime rate PBOC yang lebih rendah dari ekspektasi pasar (lihat global economic news). Akibat hal ini, indeks obligasi EMBI untuk emerging market turun -0.5%, dan yield 10Y UST dan Bund naik 8 bps masing-masing menjadi 4.34% dan 2.7%. Apabila yield 10Y INDOGB ditutup menembus support (>6.65%), maka yield 10Y INDOGB berpeluang terkoreksi hingga titik support berikutnya di 6.8%. Kami melihat tekanan depresiasi Rupiah berpeluang kembali terjadi menuju rentang IDR 15,300-15,400 per USD hari ini.

Fixed Income News: Kementerian Keuangan akan laksanakan lelang SUN dengan target indikatif IDR 14tn hari ini. Kementerian Keuangan juga akan menerbitkan obligasi seri baru (FR0100) dengan tanggal jatuh tempo Februari 2034 (10Y). Tingkat kupon dan yield akan ditentukan kemudian pada lelang hari ini. Lelang SUN hari ini dibayang-bayangi penurunan permintaan pada lelang SBSN pekan lalu (15/8) menjadi IDR 20.2tn (2/8: IDR 22.1tn) dan koreksi yield 10Y INDOGB yang sudah mencapai 6.62% kemarin (21/8). Kami memprediksi jumlah penawaran masuk hari ini berada di kisaran IDR 20-25tn. (DJPPR)

Global Economic News: PBOC turunkan suku bunga loan prime rate 1Y sebesar 10 bps menjadi 3.45% (Jul: 3.55%; Cons: 3.4%) lebih rendah dari konsensus. Sementara itu, suku bunga loan prime rate 5Y dipertahankan di 4.2% (Jul: 4.2%; Cons: 4.05%). Keputusan Bank Sentral Tiongkok (PBOC) untuk menahan pemangkasan suku bunga mengejutkan pasar. Hal ini, menurut kami, akan mendorong para pelaku pasar untuk tetap mempertahankan posisi jual terhadap pasar saham dan obligasi emerging markets Asia pekan ini. (Nikkei)

Domestic Economic News: Pemerintah tambahkan komponen harga batubara acuan ke dalam formula harga listrik non-subsidi. Sebelumnya, pemerintah memperhitungkan tarif listrik non-subsidi dengan menggunakan tiga komponen, yaitu kurs USD/IDR tingkat inflasi, dan harga Indonesia Crude Price (ICP). Penambahan HBA ke dalam komponen berpeluang mendorong naik tarif listrik non-subsidi, yang selanjutnya meningkatkan inflasi. (Kontan)

Recommendation: FR0037, FR0040, FR0056, FR0084, FR0086, FR0090, PBS032, PBS036.

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