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Daily Report

09 August 2023

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‘Stimulus pemilu’ pemerintah tidak membuat Indonesia kebal dari pelemahan ekonomi Tiongkok

Pasar modal Indonesia, terutama IHSG, tertekan oleh pelemahan nilai tukar Rupiah kemarin (8/8) akibat memburuknya performa perdagangan Tiongkok (lihat global economic news). Investor memprediksi Bank Sentral Tiongkok (PBOC) akan kembali memangkas suku bunga acuan untuk mencegah pelemahan lebih lanjut ekonomi Tiongkok yang tengah dibayang-bayangi ancaman spiral deflasi. Situasi ini memicu depresiasi CNY yang menjalar ke mata uang lain di Asia, termasuk Rupiah yang ikut melemah 0.2% menjadi IDR 15,218 per USD. Akan tetapi, kondisi di pasar obligasi lebih positif karena keputusan Kementerian Keuangan untuk menurunkan jumlah penerbitan SUN baru sebagai respon atas turunnya permintaan dalam lelang dua bulan terakhir (lihat fixed income news). Kami memprediksi pasar obligasi dalam negeri, terutama instrumen INDON, akan terdampak positif dari aksi beli di pasar obligasi global yang tercermin dari kenaikan indeks obligasi S&P untuk developed market dan indeks EMBI untuk emerging market masing-masing 0.5% dan 0.3%. Kami memperkirakan yield 10Y INDOGB dan Rupiah masih akan tertekan hari ini menuju rentang masing-masing di 6.35-6.45% dan IDR 15,150-250 per USD.

Fixed Income News: Kementerian Keuangan turunkan nilai penerbitan SUN pada lelang kemarin (8./8) menjadi IDR 9.85tn (Prev: 14tn) akibat rendahnya permintaan. Tindakan ini diambil untuk mengimbangi jumlah penawaran masuk yang rendah, tercatat IDR 32.5tn (25/7: IDR 31tn) dan masih dalam rentang prediksi kami (IDR 28-33tn). Menurut kami, hal ini akan memperlambat koreksi yield 10Y INDOGB ke floor limit JIBOR 1M (6.4%). (DJPPR)

Global Economic News: Kontraksi ekspor dan impor Tiongkok semakin dalam pada bulan Juli menjadi masing-masing -14.5% & -12.4% yoy (Jun: -12.4% & -6.8% yoy; Cons: -12.5% & -5% yoy). Pelemahan ini membuat para investor yang berharap pada stimulus fiskal dari pemerintah Tiongkok kecewa. Akibatnya, nilai tukar Yuan terdepresiasi 0.4% menjadi CNY 7.22 per USD kemarin (8/8). Kami melihat depresiasi CNY juga berdampak buruk terhadap mata uang lain di Asia. (Channel News Asia)

Domestic Economic News: Indeks keyakinan konsumen turun di bulan Juli menjadi 123.5 (Jun: 127.1). Penurunan indeks ini disebabkan oleh memburuknya persepsi konsumen atas kondisi perekonomian saat ini (terutama dari sisi penghasilan dan ketersediaan lapangan kerja) maupun selama 6 bulan mendatang (ketersediaan lapangan kerja dan kondisi dunia usaha). Menurut kami, pemburukan persepsi ini disebabkan oleh turunnya permintaan dari luar negeri terhadap produk ekspor Indonesia, terutama komoditas. Kondisi perekonomian dalam negeri cenderung stabil karena mendapatkan stimulus dari kenaikan belanja fiskal menjelang Pemilihan Presiden 2024. (Bank Indonesia)

Recommendation: FR0037, FR0040, FR0056, FR0084, FR0086, FR0090, PBS032, PBS036.

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Samuel's Daily Macro and Fixed Income Report 9 Agustus 2023 (Ind)
Samuel's Daily Macro and Fixed Income Report 9 Agustus 2023 (Eng)

Download PDF

Samuel's Daily Macro and Fixed Income Report 9 Agustus 2023 (Ind)
Samuel's Daily Macro and Fixed Income Report 9 Agustus 2023 (Eng)

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