Research & Stock Picks

Daily Report

21 September 2023

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Sinyal hawkish The Fed tekan pasar global

Keputusan Federal Reserve untuk memperkuat nada hawkish pada proyeksi FOMC September dengan menurunkan proyeksi pemangkasan suku bunga 2024 menjadi 50 bps (Cons: 75 bps) dan  mempertahankan rencana kenaikan suku bunga 1X25 bps yang terakhir bila pertumbuhan ekonomi Amerika Serikat naik melebihi 2.1% mengejutkan para pelaku pasar (lihat global economic news). Sehingga, indeks-indeks saham AS turun tajam dengan Nasdaq mencatat penurunan terbesar -1.5%. Yield 10Y UST naik 5 bps menjadi 4.41% dan indeks komoditas Goldman Sachs-S&P turun -0.6%. Hal ini dapat memicu aksi jual di pasar SBN yang sempat mencatatkan penurunan tipis terhadap yield INDOGB 10Y (-1 bps menjadi 6.75%) dan 5Y (-2 bps menjadi 6.39%). Kami memprediksi yield 10Y INDOGB akan kembali tertekan naik ke rentang 6.8-6.9% hari ini dengan potensi titik tertinggi di 7%. Tekanan depresiasi terhadap Rupiah bisa terjadi dengan target rentang IDR 15,350-15,450 per USD.

Fixed Income News: BI terbitkan SRBI senilai IDR 13.3tn pada lelang kemarin (15/9: IDR 24.5tn). Sementara itu, jumlah penawaran masuk mencapai IDR 15.6tn (15/9: IDR 29.9tn). Setelah lelang kemarin, jumlah SRBI beredar mencapai IDR 37.7tn, sedikit lebih tinggi dari jumlah SPN dan SPNS beredar senilai IDR 43.3tn. Kami memperkirakan pasar masih akan melakukan shifting ke SRBI setelah pengemuman proyeksi FOMC yang lebih hawkish dari consensus. (Bank Indonesia)

Global Economic News: The Fed pertahankan suku bunga acuan di 5.5% serta turunkan proyeksi pemangkasan suku bunga FY24 menjadi 50 bps [5%] (Cons: 75 bps [4.75%]). Hal ini diakibatkan oleh dua hal, kuatnya ekspansi pasar tenaga kerja AS, yang tercermin dari penurunan proyeksi tingkat pengangguran menjadi 3.8% untuk 2023 (Prev: 4.1%) dan 4.1% untuk 2024 dan 2025 (Prev: 4.5%), serta sulitnya menurunkan inflasi tinggi akibat kenaikan harga minyak global beberapa waktu ini, yang tercermin dari kenaikan proyeksi inflasi PCE 2023 menjadi 3.3% (Prev: 3.2%). Oleh karena itu, proyeksi pasar terhadap pemangkasan suku bunga The Fed mundur menjadi 3Q23 (Prev: 2Q23). (Federal Reserve)

Domestic Economic News: Surplus anggaran 8M23 turun menjadi IDR 147.2tn atau 0.7% terhadap PDB (7M23: IDR 153.5tn atau 0.72% terhadap PDB). Sementara itu, penerimaan negara tumbuh 3.2% yoy menjadi IDR 1,821.9tn (7M23: 4.1% yoy). Belanja negara tumbuh 1.1% yoy menjadi IDR 1,674.7tn (7M23: 1.1% yoy). Kami memperkirakan pemerintah akan meningkatkan realisasi anggaran belanja selama 3 bulan ke depan untuk mengejar target defisit anggaran -2.3% terhadap PDB berdasarkan outlook 2023. (Kontan)

Recommendation: FR0040, FR0056, FR0084, FR0095, FR0097, FR0098, FR0100.

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Samuel's Daily Macro and Fixed Income Report 21 September 2023 (Ind)
Samuel's Daily Macro and Fixed Income Report 21 September 2023 (Eng)

Download PDF

Samuel's Daily Macro and Fixed Income Report 21 September 2023 (Ind)
Samuel's Daily Macro and Fixed Income Report 21 September 2023 (Eng)

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