Research & Stock Picks

Daily Report

23 May 2023

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Sentimen bullish terjaga di tengah gejolak pasar global

Sentimen bullish di pasar obligasi Indonesia masih kokoh kemarin (22/5). Hal ini ditandai dengan imbal hasil (yield) INDOGB 10-tahun yang cenderung flat dengan penurunan tipis sebesar -1 bps menjadi 6.43% dan turunnya yield INDOGB 2-tahun sebesar -4 bps menjadi 5.9%. Akan tetapi, kondisi di pasar obligasi global masih tidak menentu, yang tercermin dari turunnya indeks S&P untuk obligasi negara-negara maju dan EMBI untuk obligasi negara-negara berkembang sebesar -0.1% serta kenaikan yield UST dan Bund 10-tahun sebesar masing-masing 4 dan 3 bps menjadi 3.71% dan 2.46%. Kami melihat hal ini sebagai tindakan hati-hati investor global menjelang rilis data PMI manufaktur dan jasa negara-negara maju malam nanti (23/5) dan data inflasi PCE Amerika Serikat untuk bulan April pada hari Jumat (26/5). Kami memperkirakan yield INDOGB 10-tahun akan bergerak flat di rentang 6.4-6.5% hari ini. Sementara itu, Rupiah diperkirakan akan melanjutkan konsolidasi di rentang IDR 14,850-14,950 per USD menjelang rilis data neraca pembayaran 1Q23 siang nanti oleh Bank Indonesia.

Fixed Income News: Kementerian Keuangan akan lakukan lelang SBSN hari ini dengan target indikatif IDR 9tn. Kami memperkirakan animo investor terhadap obligasi Indonesia di pasar lelang akan tetap tinggi, bahkan lebih tinggi dibandingkan di pasar sekunder karena kondisi di pasar global yang masih belum kondusif. Kami juga memprediksi nilai penawaran masuk lelang hari ini mencapai IDR 40tn atau lebih seperti pada lelang SBSN sebelumnya pada tanggal (9/5). (DJPPR)

Global Economic News: Para pejabat the Fed indikasikan puncak suku bunga FFR 5.25% kondisional. Hal ini dinyatakan oleh Presiden Fed Minneapolis Neel Kaskhari, Presiden Fed Atlanta Raphael Bostic, dan Presiden Fed Richmond Thomas Barkin. Menurut kami, the Fed tidak akan menaikkan suku bunga di bulan Juni sesuai pernyataan Ketua the Fed Jerome Powell pada Jumat lalu. Akan tetapi, diskusi mengenai potensi kenaikan suku bunga acuan the Fed akan berlanjut di bulan-bulan berikutnya. Hal ini berpotensi menggerus ekspektasi investor terhadap kemungkinan terjadinya Fed Pivot pada 4Q23. (Reuters)

Domestic Economic News: APBN 4M23 catat surplus 1.12% terhadap PDB (3M23: 0.61%; 4M22: 0.52%). Surplus tersebut setara dengan IDR 234.7tn (3M23: IDR 128.5tn; 4M22: IDR 102.7tn). Kenaikan surplus ini disebabkan oleh pertumbuhan penerimaan negara sebesar 17.3% yoy menjadi IDR 1,000.5tn (3M23: IDR 647.2tn; 4M22: IDR 853.2tn) dengan tingkat pertumbuhan penerimaan pajak dan bea sebesar 15.8% yoy menjadi IDR 782.7tn (3M23: IDR 504.5tn; 4M22: IDR 675.7tn). Sedangkan pertumbuhan belanja negara hanya sebesar 2% yoy menjadi IDR 765.8tn (3M23: IDR518.7tn; 4M22: IDR 750.5tn). Kami melihat hal ini sebagai katalis positif atas prospek pasar obligasi Indonesia tahun ini. (Kontan)

Recommendation: FR0098, FR0050, FR0079, FR0081, FR0040, FR0084, FR0086, PBS017.

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Samuel's Daily Macro and Fixed Income Report 23 Mei 2023 (Ind)
Samuel's Daily Macro and Fixed Income Report 23 Mei 2023 (Eng)

Download PDF

Samuel's Daily Macro and Fixed Income Report 23 Mei 2023 (Ind)
Samuel's Daily Macro and Fixed Income Report 23 Mei 2023 (Eng)

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