Research & Stock Picks

Daily Report

03 March 2023

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Samuel’s Economic & Fixed Income Report

MARKET PREVIEW

  • Pasar global merespon positif pernyataan dari Atlanta Fed President, R. Bostic, yang menginginkan The Fed untuk terus mempertahankan pace kenaikan Fed Fund Rate sebesar 25bps pada FOMC meeting berikutnya. Kendati Bostic bukan pemilih aktif dalam FOMC meeting tahun ini, namun outlook suku bunga yang dia berikan akan menjadi bahan pertimbangan pelaku pasar dalam menentukan langkah taktis selanjutnya dalam menghadapi ketidakpastian kebijakan moneter The Fed.
  • Namun laporan data klaim pengangguran terbaru yang masih bertahan di level rendah, serta data pertumbuhan biaya upah yang lebih tinggi dari perkiraan, akan membuat pasar tetap berekspektasi secara umum The Fed akan mempertahankan stance kebijakan yang hawkish tahun ini.
  • Imbal hasil UST 10Y sempat menyentuh level tertinggi di 4.091% pada intraday kemarin selepas pengumuman data-data pasar tenaga kerja AS yang masih solid, namun kemudian menurun tipis ke 4.06% di penutupan terdorong oleh statement positif dari R. Bostic.
  • Di pasar utang domestik, kami melihat tekanan inflasi yang masih sangat terkendali akan menjadi pertimbangan utama bagi Bank Indonesia untuk secara hati-hati merespon agresivitas The Fed. Dengan kondisi saat ini, kami masih yakin BI perlu menaikan bunga acuannya paling tidak 25bps untuk menahan gejolak Rupiah. Untuk hari ini, kami melihat tekanan jual SBN kemungkinan akan mengendur sedikit dengan imbal hasil SUN 10Y tertahan di level 6.98% dengan Rupiah berpotensi untuk menguji level tahanan baru di 15,300/USD.

 

GLOBAL ECON

Inflasi di zona Euro turun tipis pada Februari menjadi 8.5% yoy (prev: 8.6% yoy). Akan tetapi, penurunan ini tidak sesuai dengan ekspektasi pasar (cons: 8.2% yoy). Sementara itu, inflasi inti zona Euro berbalik naik menjadi 5.6% yoy (prev: 5.3% yoy). (Investing) Comment: Melambatnya penurunan inflasi zona Euro mengejutkan pasar dan berpotensi mendorong Bank Sentral Eropa (ECB) untuk menaikkan suku bunga dengan lebih agresif. Menurut kami, hal ini berpotensi membuat perekonomian Eropa berkubang lebih lama di zona resesi dan memperlambat pemulihan ekonomi global.

Initial jobless claims AS untuk minggu lalu turun menjadi 190,000 (prev: 192,000). Angka continuing jobless claims Amerika Serikat untuk dua minggu yang lalu turun tipis menjadi 1.655 juta (prev: 1.66 juta). (Wall Street Journal). Comment: Menurunnya angka continuing maupun initial jobless claims AS menunjukkan masih kuatnya ekspansi pasar tenaga kerja AS di bulan Februari. Menurut pandangan kami, kondisi ini akan memperkuat komitment para pejabat the Fed untuk mempertahankan posisi kebijakan moneter hawkish melalui berlanjutnya kenaikan suku bunga yang diperkirakan oleh pasar bisa berlanjut hingga Juli 2023 dengan puncak kenaikan suku bunga di 5.75%. Kondisi ini berpotensi memaksa Bank Indonesia untuk terus menaikkan suku bunga acuan 7DRRR dengan laju yang sama hingga 6.75%.

BUY Recommendation: FR0081, FR0047, FR0073, FR0037, FR0040, FR0054.

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Samuel's Daily Macro and Fixed Income Report 3 Maret 2023 (Ind)
Samuel's Daily Macro and Fixed Income Report 3 Maret 2023 (Eng)

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Samuel's Daily Macro and Fixed Income Report 3 Maret 2023 (Ind)
Samuel's Daily Macro and Fixed Income Report 3 Maret 2023 (Eng)

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