Research & Stock Picks

Economic & Fixed Income

22 July 2024

By

Samuel Weekly Economic 22 July 2024

Highlight

  • Trump Assassination Attempt: The recent assassination attempt on former US President Donald Trump may increase his chances of becoming the next US president, potentially impacting Indonesia's economy due to his bilateral trade preferences and delaying Federal Reserve rate cuts.
  • Shrinking Trade Surplus: Indonesia's trade surplus shrank to USD 2.39 billion in June 2024, signaling weaker export growth and higher imports, with a forecasted GDP drop to 4.9% from 5.05% in 2023.
  • Bank Indonesia's Rate Decision: Bank Indonesia maintained its key interest rate at 6.25%, with a potential rate hike anticipated next month due to the narrow gap between Indonesia's rates and the Fed's, alongside an expected Q2 current account deficit of USD 2.8 billion.
  • Finance Minister's Departure: Finance Minister Sri Mulyani is expected to step down by October, and President Jokowi's new regulation granting 190-year land rights aims to attract investors for the IKN megaproject, which has already received 421 investment letters of intent.
  • Renewable Energy and Digital Economy Expansion: Indonesia's renewable energy sector shows vast potential, with significant foreign interest in EV and geothermal industries, while the digital economy is expanding through initiatives like TikTok's local services, GoTo's AI-based fintech voice assistant, and enhancements in digital payments and broadband infrastructure.

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