Research & Stock Picks

Daily Report

24 November 2023

By

Samuel Macro and Fixed Income Report

Tekanan depresiasi Rupiah mengendur

Tekanan depresiasi Rupiah turun tajam setelah pengumuman Bank Indonesia yang mempertahankan suku bunga 7DRRR di 6%. Hal ini terlihat dari turunnya USD/IDR 1M-NDF sebesar -0.7% menjadi IDR 15,520 per USD. Apresiasi Rupiah di pasar 1M-NDF disebabkan oleh arus masuk modal asing di IHSG sebesar USD 60.7mn yang memicu kenaikan IHSG 1.4% menjadi 7,004. Walaupun data arus modal asing di pasar SBN masih belum dirilis, pergerakan yield cenderung mendatar, kecuali bagi yield 2Y INDOGB yang melanjutkan penurunan -3 bps menjadi 6.74%. Tampaknya optimisme investor di pasar SBN jangka pendek masih tinggi, dan ada keyakinan bahwa suku bunga diskonto SRBI 12M akan kembali turun di lelang hari ini pasca-pengumuman suku bunga BI. Menurut kami, situasi ini perlu dikonfirmasi minggu depan setelah liburan Thanksgiving di Amerika Serikat. Kami memprediksi yield 10Y INDOGB masih akan bertahan di rentang 6.6-6.7% hari ini, yang diikuti konsolidasi Rupiah di rentang IDR 15,400-15,500 per USD.

Fixed Income News: Fitch Ratings turunkan peringkat nasional jangka panjang LKPR dari ‘BBB-(idn)’ menjadi ‘B+(idn)’ dengan outlook negatif. Fitch juga menurunkan peringkat utang jangka panjang PT Lippo Karawaci (LKPR) dan obligasi berdenominasi dolar AS dari ‘B-’ menjadi ‘CCC+’ dengan recovery rating ‘RR4’. Penurunan peringkat ini mencerminkan risiko pembiayaan kembali (refinancing) obligasi tanpa jaminan LKPR senilai USD 237mn yang jatuh tempo pada tanggal 22 Januari 2025 karena LKPR dalam pernyataannya akan lebih memprioritaskan obligasi senilai USD 250mn yang dirilis oleh Singapura Lippo Malls Indonesia Retail Trust (LMIRT) dengan masa jatuh tempo Juni 2024. (Fitch)

Global Economic News: PMI manufaktur dan jasa di Eropa membaik di bulan November. PMI manufaktur di zona Euro naik menjadi 43.8 (Oct: 43.1; Cons: 43.4), yang juga diikuti meningkatnya PMI jasa menjadi 48.2 (Oct: 47.8; Cons: 48.1). Sementara itu, PMI jasa di Britania Raya (UK) berbalik masuk ke zona ekspansi 50.5 (Oct: & Cons: 49.5). Walaupun ikut membaik, PMI manufaktur UK masih berada di zona kontraksi 46.7 (Oct: 44.8; Cons: 45). Berdasarkan rilis data ini, kami memperkirakan Eropa, terutama zona Euro akan mengalami resesi ekonomi di 4Q23. (Reuters)

Domestic Economic News: Pemerintah berencana menerapkan diskon tarif jalan tol pada libur Natal dan Tahun Baru. Usulan ini masih harus dibahas oleh Kementerian Pekerjaan Umum dan Perumahan Rakyat (PUPR) dengan Asosiasi Jalan Tol Indonesia (ATI). Besaran diskon jalan tol diperkirakan 15-20%, dan berpotensi diterapkan di luar waktu puncak arus. (Kontan)

Recommendation: FR0096, FR0097, FR0098, FR0100, FR0101.

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Samuel's Daily Macro and Fixed Income Report 24 November 2023 (Ind)
Samuel's Daily Macro and Fixed Income Report 24 November 2023 (Eng)

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Samuel's Daily Macro and Fixed Income Report 24 November 2023 (Ind)
Samuel's Daily Macro and Fixed Income Report 24 November 2023 (Eng)

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