Research & Stock Picks

Daily Report

06 September 2023

By

Reakselerasi inflasi akibat naiknya harga minyak?

Kenaikan harga minyak global hingga mencapai level USD 90 per bbl (Brent) tadi malam (5/9) memicu kekhawatiran diantara para pelaku pasar terhadap potensi terjadinya reakselerasi inflasi. Akibatnya, jumlah analis yang memprediksi The Fed akan menaikkan suku bunga FFR sebesar 25 bps menjadi 5.75% di bulan November atau Desember meningkat menjadi masing-masing 43% dan 39% (Prev: 33% dan 32%). Hal ini memicu aksi jual di pasar saham dan obligasi global yang terlihat dari koreksi di bursa Amerika Serikat di kisaran -0.5% dan bursa Eropa di kisaran -0.3%. Sementara itu, indeks obligasi S&P untuk developed market maupun EMBI untuk emerging market turut terkoreksi masing-masing -0.3% dan -0.5%. Pasar obligasi domestik juga terdampak, yang tercermin dari penurunan indeks ICBI -0.2% dan kenaikan yield 10Y INDOGB sebesar 6 bps menjadi 6.44%. Permintaan atas lelang SUN juga turun tajam menjadi IDR 20tn (22/8: IDR 34.6tn; lihat fixed income news). Kami memprediksi yield 10Y INDOGB dan Rupiah akan melemah menuju rentang  masing-masing 6.4-6.5% dan IDR 15,300-15,400 per USD hari ini.

Fixed Income News: Jumlah penawaran masuk lelang SUN turun menjadi IDR 20tn (22/8: IDR 34.6tn). Turunnya jumlah penawaran masuk dalam lelang SUN kemarin diluar prediksi kami yang memproyeksikan peningkatan permintaan menjadi IDR 35-40tn. Sementara itu, jumlah SUN seri FR0100 yang dimenangkan mencapai IDR 5.8tn atau 43.9% dari total SUN yang diterbitkan (IDR 13.2tn). Alokasi penerbitan SUN terbesar kedua dicatat oleh FR0089 (IDR 3.05tn) yang memiliki tenor 28 tahun (tanggal jatuh tempo 15 Agustus 2051). (DJPPR)

Global Economic News: Inflasi di Asia melonjak naik pada bulan Agustus. Lonjakan naik inflasi yang kuat, bahkan melebihi konsensus, terjadi di Korea Selatan dan Filipina masing-masing menjadi 3.4% yoy (Jul: 2.3% yoy; Cons: 2.7% yoy) dan 5.3% yoy (Jul & Cons: 4.7% yoy). Akan tetapi, inflasi inti di Filipina turun sejalan dengan konsensus menjadi 6.1% yoy (Jul: 6.7% yoy; Cons: 6.1% yoy). Inflasi Thailand juga naik walaupun tidak sekuat di kedua negara tersebut menjadi 0.88% yoy (Jul: 0.38% yoy; Cons: 0.61% yoy). Kami memperkirakan lonjakan inflasi ini dapat mendorong para bank sentral di Asia untuk mengambil langkah kejutan dengan menaikkan suku bunga acuan. (Nikkei)

Domestic Economic News: Kementerian Keuangan usulkan kenaikan asumsi harga ICP dan lifting minyak menjadi USD 82 per bbl dan 635,000 bpd (Prev: USD 80 per bbl dan 625,000). Usulan ini dibuat dengan mempertimbangkan kenaikan harga minyak mentah terkini yang mencapai USD 90 (Brent) dan 86.7 (WTI) per bbl tadi malam (5/9). Kenaikan ini disebabkan oleh upaya negara-negara anggota OPEC+ memangkas produksi sebesar 1 juta bpd agar harga minyak mencapai level yang mereka inginkan. Menurut kami, kenaikan harga minyak global sudah tidak jauh dari puncak di USD 95 per bbl. (Kontan)

Recommendation: FR0040, FR0056, FR0081, FR0084, FR0086, FR0096, FR0097, FR0098.

Share This:

Highlights

Download PDF

Download PDF

Samuel's Daily Macro and Fixed Income Report 6 September 2023 (Eng)
Samuel's Daily Macro and Fixed Income Report 6 September 2023 (Ind)

Download PDF

Samuel's Daily Macro and Fixed Income Report 6 September 2023 (Eng)
Samuel's Daily Macro and Fixed Income Report 6 September 2023 (Ind)

More Related

Daily Stock Technical Recommendations

Jul 23, 2024

Daily Stock Technical – Jul 23, 2024

Daily Report

Jul 22, 2024

Samuel Weekly Economic 22 July 2024

Daily Report

Jul 22, 2024

IHSG Berpotensi Melemah Hari Ini

Daily Stock Technical Recommendations

Jul 22, 2024

Daily Stock Technical – Jul 22, 2024

Daily Report

Jul 19, 2024

IHSG Berpotensi Melemah

Daily Stock Technical Recommendations

Jul 18, 2024

Daily Stock Technical – Jul 18, 2024

Daily Report

Jul 18, 2024

IHSG Berpotensi Melemah Hari Ini

Daily Stock Technical Recommendations

Jul 17, 2024

Daily Stock Technical – Jul 17, 2024

Daily Report

Jul 17, 2024

IHSG Berpotensi Melemah Hari Ini

Daily Stock Technical Recommendations

Jul 16, 2024

Daily Stock Technical – Jul 16, 2024

Daily Report

Jul 15, 2024

Samuel Weekly Economic Report 15 July 2024

Daily Report

Jul 15, 2024

IHSG Berpotensi Menguat Hari Ini

Daily Stock Technical Recommendations

Jul 15, 2024

Daily Stock Technical – Jul 15, 2024

Daily Report

Jul 12, 2024

Samuel Daily Economic 12 July 2024

Daily Stock Technical Recommendations

Jul 12, 2024

Daily Stock Technical – Jul 12, 2024

Daily Report

Jul 12, 2024

IHSG Berpotensi Melemah

Daily Stock Technical Recommendations

Jul 11, 2024

Daily Stock Technical – Jul 11, 2024

Daily Report

Jul 11, 2024

IHSG Diperkirakan Menguat Hari Ini

Daily Stock Technical Recommendations

Jul 10, 2024

Daily Stock Technical – Jul 10, 2024

Daily Report

Jul 10, 2024

IHSG Diperkirakan Bergerak Sideways Hari Ini

Daily Stock Technical Recommendations

Jul 9, 2024

Daily Stock Technical – Jul 09, 2024

Daily Report

Jul 8, 2024

Samuel Weekly Economic Report 8 July 2024

Daily Report

Jul 8, 2024

IHSG Berpotensi Menguat Hari Ini

Daily Stock Technical Recommendations

Jul 8, 2024

Daily Stock Technical – Jul 08, 2024

Daily Stock Technical Recommendations

Jul 5, 2024

Samuel Daily Stock Technical – Jul 05, 2024

Daily Report

Jul 5, 2024

IHSG Berpotensi Menguat Hari Ini

Daily Report

Jul 4, 2024

Samuel Daily Economic 4 July 2024

Daily Stock Technical Recommendations

Jul 4, 2024

Daily Stock Technical – Jul 04, 2024

Daily Report

Jul 4, 2024

IHSG Berpotensi Menguat Hari Ini

Daily Report

Jul 3, 2024

Samuel Daily Economic 3 July 2024

Daily Stock Technical Recommendations

Jul 3, 2024

Daily Stock Technical – Jul 03, 2024

Daily Report

Jul 3, 2024

IHSG Berpotensi Menguat

Emiten Report

Jul 2, 2024

Telco Sector – Neutral – Disruption from Space

Daily Stock Technical Recommendations

Jul 2, 2024

Daily Stock Technical – JuL 02, 2024

Daily Report

Jul 1, 2024

Samuel Quarterly Macro Report

Daily Report

Jul 1, 2024

IHSG Berpotensi Menguat Hari Ini

Daily Stock Technical Recommendations

Jul 1, 2024

Samuel Daily Stock Technical – JuL 01, 2024

Daily Report

Jun 28, 2024

Samuel Daily Economic Report 28 June 2024

Daily Stock Technical Recommendations

Jun 28, 2024

Daily Stock Technical – Jun 28, 2024

Daily Report

Jun 28, 2024

IHSG Berpotensi Menguat

Daily Stock Technical Recommendations

Jun 27, 2024

Daily Stock Technical – Jun 27, 2024

Daily Report

Jun 27, 2024

IHSG Berpotensi Menguat Hari Ini

Daily Report

Jun 26, 2024

Samuel Daily Economic 26 June 2024

Daily Stock Technical Recommendations

Jun 26, 2024

Daily Stock Technical – Jun 26, 2024

Daily Report

Jun 26, 2024

IHSG Berpotensi Bergerak Sideways Hari Ini

Daily Stock Technical Recommendations

Jun 25, 2024

Daily Stock Technical – Jun 25, 2024

Daily Report

Jun 24, 2024

IHSG Berpotensi Melemah

Daily Stock Technical Recommendations

Jun 24, 2024

Daily Stock Technical – Jun 24, 2024

Daily Stock Technical Recommendations

Jun 21, 2024

Daily Stock Technical – Jun 21, 2024

Daily Report

Jun 21, 2024

IHSG Berpotensi Melemah

Daily Report

Jun 20, 2024

IHSG Diperkirakan Bergerak Sideways Hari Ini

Daily Stock Technical Recommendations

Jun 20, 2024

Daily Stock Technical – Jun 20, 2024

Daily Report

Jun 19, 2024

IHSG Diperkirakan Bergerak Sideways Hari Ini

Daily Stock Technical Recommendations

Jun 19, 2024

Daily Stock Technical – Jun 19, 2024

Daily Report

Jun 14, 2024

Samuel Daily Economic Report 14 June 2024

Daily Stock Technical Recommendations

Jun 14, 2024

Daily Stock Technical – Jun 14, 2024

Daily Report

Jun 14, 2024

IHSG Diperkirakan Bergerak Sideways Hari Ini

Daily Stock Technical Recommendations

Jun 13, 2024

Daily Stock Technical – Jun 13, 2024

Daily Report

Jun 13, 2024

IHSG Berpotensi Mengalami Penguatan Hari Ini

Daily Report

Jun 12, 2024

Samuel Daily Economic Report 12 June 2024

Daily Stock Technical Recommendations

Jun 12, 2024

Daily Stock Technical – Jun 12, 2024

Daily Report

Jun 12, 2024

IHSG Berpotensi Naik Hari Ini

Daily Report

Jun 11, 2024

Samuel Daily Economic Report 11 June 2024

Daily Stock Technical Recommendations

Jun 11, 2024

Daily Stock Technical – Jun 11, 2024

Daily Report

Jun 10, 2024

Samuel Weekly Economic 10 June 2024

Daily Stock Technical Recommendations

Jun 10, 2024

Daily Stock Technical – Jun 10, 2024

Daily Report

Jun 10, 2024

IHSG Berpotensi Sideways

inflasi tahunan indonesia

Daily Report

Jun 7, 2024

Samuel Daily Economic 7 June 2024

Daily Stock Technical Recommendations

Jun 7, 2024

Daily Stock Technical – Jun 07, 2024

Daily Report

Jun 7, 2024

IHSG Diperkirakan Bergerak Sideways Hari Ini

Daily Stock Technical Recommendations

Jun 6, 2024

Daily Stock Technical – Jun 06, 2024

Daily Report

Jun 6, 2024

IHSG Diperkirakan Bergerak Sideways Hari Ini

inflasi tahunan indonesia

Daily Report

Jun 5, 2024

Samuel Daily Research 5 June 2024

Daily Stock Technical Recommendations

Jun 5, 2024

Daily Stock Technical – Jun 05, 2024

Daily Report

Jun 5, 2024

IHSG Berpotensi Sideways Hari Ini

Emiten Report

Jun 4, 2024

Banking Sector – Overweight – 4M24 Bank-Only Results

Daily Report

Jun 4, 2024

Samuel Daily Economic 4 June 2024

Daily Stock Technical Recommendations

Jun 4, 2024

Daily Stock Technical – Jun 04, 2024

Daily Report

Jun 3, 2024

Indonesia Manufacturing PMI: 3 June 2024

Daily Report

Jun 3, 2024

Indonesia May Inflation: 3 June 2024

Emiten Report

Jun 3, 2024

PGAS Update, BUY TP: 1,800 (from 1,300)

Daily Report

Jun 3, 2024

IHSG Berpotensi Sideways

Daily Stock Technical Recommendations

Jun 3, 2024

Daily Stock Technical – Jun 03, 2024

Daily Stock Technical Recommendations

May 31, 2024

Daily Stock Technical – May 31, 2024

Daily Report

May 31, 2024

IHSG Berpotensi Rebound Hari Ini

Daily Report

May 30, 2024

Samuel Daily Economic Report: 30 May 2024

Daily Stock Technical Recommendations

May 30, 2024

Daily Stock Technical – May 30, 2024

Daily Stock Technical Recommendations

May 29, 2024

Daily Stock Technical – May 29, 2024

Daily Report

May 29, 2024

IHSG Berpotensi Sideways Hari Ini

Daily Stock Technical Recommendations

May 28, 2024

Daily Stock Technical – May 28, 2024

Daily Report

May 27, 2024

IHSG Berpotensi Sideways

Daily Stock Technical Recommendations

May 27, 2024

Daily Stock Technical – May 27, 2024

Daily Stock Technical Recommendations

May 22, 2024

Daily Stock Technical – May 22, 2024

May 22, 2024

Daily Stock Technical – May 22, 2024

Daily Report

May 22, 2024

IHSG Berpotensi Melemah

Daily Stock Technical Recommendations

May 21, 2024

Daily Stock Technical – May 21, 2024

Daily Report

May 20, 2024

IHSG Berpotensi Menguat

Daily Stock Technical Recommendations

May 20, 2024

Daily Stock Technical – May 20, 2024

Daily Stock Technical Recommendations

May 17, 2024

Daily Stock Technical – May 17, 2024