Research & Stock Picks

Daily Report

10 November 2023

By

Pernyataan Powell di IMF kejutkan pasar global

Pidato Chairman Federal Reserve Jerome Powell pada acara IMF memicu aksi jual di pasar obligasi global. Pernyataan Powell bahwa para pejabat Federal Reserve masih belum yakin terhadap efek restriksi dari kebijakan moneter terhadap target inflasi saat ini mendorong naik yield 10Y UST sebesar 13 bps menjadi 4.62%. Indeks obligasi S&P untuk developed market dan EMBI untuk emerging market menurun -0.3%. Kami melihat tekanan jual di pasar global sebagai katalis untuk kenaikan yield 10Y INDOGB menuju target prediksi kami di 6.9-7.1%. Secara fundamental, kami melihat langkah ini sebagai upaya Powell untuk tetap menjaga level restriksi keuangan di industri finansial Amerika Serikat, terutama melalui mekanisme pasar atas instrumen 30Y UST. Para pelaku pasar tetap merasa yakin bahwa suku bunga FFR akan bertahan di 5.5% pada bulan Desember dengan probabilita 85%. Akan tetapi, gejolak pasar mungkin terjadi bila rilis inflasi CPI AS Selasa depan (14/11) untuk bulan Oktober menunjukkan kenaikan laju inflasi menjadi 0.4% mom (Sep: 0.3% mom). Kami memperkirakan yield 10Y INDOGB akan bergerak naik ke rentang 6.8-6.9% hari ini, yang disertai dengan depresiasi Rupiah ke rentang IDR 15,650-15,750 per USD.

Fixed Income News: Kementerian Keuangan peroleh pendanaan USD 2bn (IDR 31.2tn) dari penerbitan global sukuk. Total permintaan yang masuk mencapai USD 5.6bn. Global sukuk tersebut dibagi menjadi dua instrumen, yaitu tenor 5 tahun dengan yield 5.4% dan tenor 10 tahun dengan yield 5.6%. Nilai yang dirilis untuk masing-masing instrumen adalah USD 1bn. Kami melihat tindakan ini sebagai hal positif yang akan memperkuat cadangan devisa Bank Indonesia. (CNBC Indonesia)

Global Economic News: Inflasi CPI Tiongkok kembali mengalami deflasi -0.2% yoy pada bulan Oktober (Sep: 0% yoy; Cons: -0.1% yoy). Deflasi ini disebabkan oleh turunnya harga pangan. Sementara itu, inflasi inti CPI tetap bertahan di 0.7% yoy (Sep: 0.7% yoy). Deflasi PPI melebar tipis menjadi -2.6% yoy (Sep: -2.5% yoy; Cons: -2.7% yoy). Menurut kami, rilis data ini menunjukkan ekonomi Tiongkok masih akan lemah hingga akhir tahun ini. (Nikkei)

Domestic Economic News: Indeks penjualan riil turun di bulan September menjadi 201.1 lebih baik dibandingkan proyeksi BI (BI Sep Forc: 200.2) dan diproyeksikan naik menjadi 206.3 di bulan Oktober. Angka ini menunjukkan Bank Indonesia yakin terhadap dampak dari kenaikan indeks kepercayaan konsumen menjadi 124.3 (Sep: 121.7) di bulan Oktober terhadap peningkatan belanja, terutama pada kategori makanan dan minuman, serta alat-alan informasi dan komunikasi. (Bank Indonesia)

Recommendation: FR0096, FR0097, FR0098, FR0100, FR0101.

Share This:

Highlights

Download PDF

Download PDF

Samuel's Daily Macro and Fixed Income Report 10 November 2023 (Ind)
Samuel's Daily Macro and Fixed Income Report 10 November 2023 (Eng)

Download PDF

Samuel's Daily Macro and Fixed Income Report 10 November 2023 (Ind)
Samuel's Daily Macro and Fixed Income Report 10 November 2023 (Eng)

More Related

Daily Stock Technical Recommendations

Jul 26, 2024

Daily Stock Technical – Jul 26, 2024

Daily Report

Jul 26, 2024

IHSG Berpotensi Melemah

Daily Report

Jul 25, 2024

IHSG Berpotensi Melemah Hari Ini

Daily Stock Technical Recommendations

Jul 25, 2024

Daily Stock Technical – Jul 25, 2024

Emiten Report

Jul 24, 2024

Automotive Sector – GIIAS 2024: EV Remains the Name of the Game

Daily Stock Technical Recommendations

Jul 24, 2024

Daily Stock Technical – Jul 24, 2024

Daily Stock Technical Recommendations

Jul 23, 2024

Daily Stock Technical – Jul 23, 2024

Daily Report

Jul 22, 2024

Samuel Weekly Economic 22 July 2024

Daily Report

Jul 22, 2024

IHSG Berpotensi Melemah Hari Ini

Daily Stock Technical Recommendations

Jul 22, 2024

Daily Stock Technical – Jul 22, 2024

Daily Report

Jul 19, 2024

IHSG Berpotensi Melemah

Daily Stock Technical Recommendations

Jul 18, 2024

Daily Stock Technical – Jul 18, 2024

Daily Report

Jul 18, 2024

IHSG Berpotensi Melemah Hari Ini

Daily Stock Technical Recommendations

Jul 17, 2024

Daily Stock Technical – Jul 17, 2024

Daily Report

Jul 17, 2024

IHSG Berpotensi Melemah Hari Ini

Daily Stock Technical Recommendations

Jul 16, 2024

Daily Stock Technical – Jul 16, 2024

Daily Report

Jul 15, 2024

Samuel Weekly Economic Report 15 July 2024

Daily Report

Jul 15, 2024

IHSG Berpotensi Menguat Hari Ini

Daily Stock Technical Recommendations

Jul 15, 2024

Daily Stock Technical – Jul 15, 2024

Daily Report

Jul 12, 2024

Samuel Daily Economic 12 July 2024

Daily Stock Technical Recommendations

Jul 12, 2024

Daily Stock Technical – Jul 12, 2024

Daily Report

Jul 12, 2024

IHSG Berpotensi Melemah

Daily Stock Technical Recommendations

Jul 11, 2024

Daily Stock Technical – Jul 11, 2024

Daily Report

Jul 11, 2024

IHSG Diperkirakan Menguat Hari Ini

Daily Stock Technical Recommendations

Jul 10, 2024

Daily Stock Technical – Jul 10, 2024

Daily Report

Jul 10, 2024

IHSG Diperkirakan Bergerak Sideways Hari Ini

Daily Stock Technical Recommendations

Jul 9, 2024

Daily Stock Technical – Jul 09, 2024

Daily Report

Jul 8, 2024

Samuel Weekly Economic Report 8 July 2024

Daily Report

Jul 8, 2024

IHSG Berpotensi Menguat Hari Ini

Daily Stock Technical Recommendations

Jul 8, 2024

Daily Stock Technical – Jul 08, 2024

Daily Stock Technical Recommendations

Jul 5, 2024

Samuel Daily Stock Technical – Jul 05, 2024

Daily Report

Jul 5, 2024

IHSG Berpotensi Menguat Hari Ini

Daily Report

Jul 4, 2024

Samuel Daily Economic 4 July 2024

Daily Stock Technical Recommendations

Jul 4, 2024

Daily Stock Technical – Jul 04, 2024

Daily Report

Jul 4, 2024

IHSG Berpotensi Menguat Hari Ini

Daily Report

Jul 3, 2024

Samuel Daily Economic 3 July 2024

Daily Stock Technical Recommendations

Jul 3, 2024

Daily Stock Technical – Jul 03, 2024

Daily Report

Jul 3, 2024

IHSG Berpotensi Menguat

Emiten Report

Jul 2, 2024

Telco Sector – Neutral – Disruption from Space

Daily Stock Technical Recommendations

Jul 2, 2024

Daily Stock Technical – JuL 02, 2024

Daily Report

Jul 1, 2024

Samuel Quarterly Macro Report

Daily Report

Jul 1, 2024

IHSG Berpotensi Menguat Hari Ini

Daily Stock Technical Recommendations

Jul 1, 2024

Samuel Daily Stock Technical – JuL 01, 2024

Daily Report

Jun 28, 2024

Samuel Daily Economic Report 28 June 2024

Daily Stock Technical Recommendations

Jun 28, 2024

Daily Stock Technical – Jun 28, 2024

Daily Report

Jun 28, 2024

IHSG Berpotensi Menguat

Daily Stock Technical Recommendations

Jun 27, 2024

Daily Stock Technical – Jun 27, 2024

Daily Report

Jun 27, 2024

IHSG Berpotensi Menguat Hari Ini

Daily Report

Jun 26, 2024

Samuel Daily Economic 26 June 2024

Daily Stock Technical Recommendations

Jun 26, 2024

Daily Stock Technical – Jun 26, 2024

Daily Report

Jun 26, 2024

IHSG Berpotensi Bergerak Sideways Hari Ini

Daily Stock Technical Recommendations

Jun 25, 2024

Daily Stock Technical – Jun 25, 2024

Daily Report

Jun 24, 2024

IHSG Berpotensi Melemah

Daily Stock Technical Recommendations

Jun 24, 2024

Daily Stock Technical – Jun 24, 2024

Daily Stock Technical Recommendations

Jun 21, 2024

Daily Stock Technical – Jun 21, 2024

Daily Report

Jun 21, 2024

IHSG Berpotensi Melemah

Daily Report

Jun 20, 2024

IHSG Diperkirakan Bergerak Sideways Hari Ini

Daily Stock Technical Recommendations

Jun 20, 2024

Daily Stock Technical – Jun 20, 2024

Daily Report

Jun 19, 2024

IHSG Diperkirakan Bergerak Sideways Hari Ini

Daily Stock Technical Recommendations

Jun 19, 2024

Daily Stock Technical – Jun 19, 2024

Daily Report

Jun 14, 2024

Samuel Daily Economic Report 14 June 2024

Daily Stock Technical Recommendations

Jun 14, 2024

Daily Stock Technical – Jun 14, 2024

Daily Report

Jun 14, 2024

IHSG Diperkirakan Bergerak Sideways Hari Ini

Daily Stock Technical Recommendations

Jun 13, 2024

Daily Stock Technical – Jun 13, 2024

Daily Report

Jun 13, 2024

IHSG Berpotensi Mengalami Penguatan Hari Ini

Daily Report

Jun 12, 2024

Samuel Daily Economic Report 12 June 2024

Daily Stock Technical Recommendations

Jun 12, 2024

Daily Stock Technical – Jun 12, 2024

Daily Report

Jun 12, 2024

IHSG Berpotensi Naik Hari Ini

Daily Report

Jun 11, 2024

Samuel Daily Economic Report 11 June 2024

Daily Stock Technical Recommendations

Jun 11, 2024

Daily Stock Technical – Jun 11, 2024

Daily Report

Jun 10, 2024

Samuel Weekly Economic 10 June 2024

Daily Stock Technical Recommendations

Jun 10, 2024

Daily Stock Technical – Jun 10, 2024

Daily Report

Jun 10, 2024

IHSG Berpotensi Sideways

inflasi tahunan indonesia

Daily Report

Jun 7, 2024

Samuel Daily Economic 7 June 2024

Daily Stock Technical Recommendations

Jun 7, 2024

Daily Stock Technical – Jun 07, 2024

Daily Report

Jun 7, 2024

IHSG Diperkirakan Bergerak Sideways Hari Ini

Daily Stock Technical Recommendations

Jun 6, 2024

Daily Stock Technical – Jun 06, 2024

Daily Report

Jun 6, 2024

IHSG Diperkirakan Bergerak Sideways Hari Ini

inflasi tahunan indonesia

Daily Report

Jun 5, 2024

Samuel Daily Research 5 June 2024

Daily Stock Technical Recommendations

Jun 5, 2024

Daily Stock Technical – Jun 05, 2024

Daily Report

Jun 5, 2024

IHSG Berpotensi Sideways Hari Ini

Emiten Report

Jun 4, 2024

Banking Sector – Overweight – 4M24 Bank-Only Results

Daily Report

Jun 4, 2024

Samuel Daily Economic 4 June 2024

Daily Stock Technical Recommendations

Jun 4, 2024

Daily Stock Technical – Jun 04, 2024

Daily Report

Jun 3, 2024

Indonesia Manufacturing PMI: 3 June 2024

Daily Report

Jun 3, 2024

Indonesia May Inflation: 3 June 2024

Emiten Report

Jun 3, 2024

PGAS Update, BUY TP: 1,800 (from 1,300)

Daily Report

Jun 3, 2024

IHSG Berpotensi Sideways

Daily Stock Technical Recommendations

Jun 3, 2024

Daily Stock Technical – Jun 03, 2024

Daily Stock Technical Recommendations

May 31, 2024

Daily Stock Technical – May 31, 2024

Daily Report

May 31, 2024

IHSG Berpotensi Rebound Hari Ini

Daily Report

May 30, 2024

Samuel Daily Economic Report: 30 May 2024

Daily Stock Technical Recommendations

May 30, 2024

Daily Stock Technical – May 30, 2024

Daily Stock Technical Recommendations

May 29, 2024

Daily Stock Technical – May 29, 2024

Daily Report

May 29, 2024

IHSG Berpotensi Sideways Hari Ini

Daily Stock Technical Recommendations

May 28, 2024

Daily Stock Technical – May 28, 2024

Daily Report

May 27, 2024

IHSG Berpotensi Sideways

Daily Stock Technical Recommendations

May 27, 2024

Daily Stock Technical – May 27, 2024

Daily Stock Technical Recommendations

May 22, 2024

Daily Stock Technical – May 22, 2024