Research & Stock Picks

Daily Report

10 November 2023

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Pernyataan Powell di IMF kejutkan pasar global

Pidato Chairman Federal Reserve Jerome Powell pada acara IMF memicu aksi jual di pasar obligasi global. Pernyataan Powell bahwa para pejabat Federal Reserve masih belum yakin terhadap efek restriksi dari kebijakan moneter terhadap target inflasi saat ini mendorong naik yield 10Y UST sebesar 13 bps menjadi 4.62%. Indeks obligasi S&P untuk developed market dan EMBI untuk emerging market menurun -0.3%. Kami melihat tekanan jual di pasar global sebagai katalis untuk kenaikan yield 10Y INDOGB menuju target prediksi kami di 6.9-7.1%. Secara fundamental, kami melihat langkah ini sebagai upaya Powell untuk tetap menjaga level restriksi keuangan di industri finansial Amerika Serikat, terutama melalui mekanisme pasar atas instrumen 30Y UST. Para pelaku pasar tetap merasa yakin bahwa suku bunga FFR akan bertahan di 5.5% pada bulan Desember dengan probabilita 85%. Akan tetapi, gejolak pasar mungkin terjadi bila rilis inflasi CPI AS Selasa depan (14/11) untuk bulan Oktober menunjukkan kenaikan laju inflasi menjadi 0.4% mom (Sep: 0.3% mom). Kami memperkirakan yield 10Y INDOGB akan bergerak naik ke rentang 6.8-6.9% hari ini, yang disertai dengan depresiasi Rupiah ke rentang IDR 15,650-15,750 per USD.

Fixed Income News: Kementerian Keuangan peroleh pendanaan USD 2bn (IDR 31.2tn) dari penerbitan global sukuk. Total permintaan yang masuk mencapai USD 5.6bn. Global sukuk tersebut dibagi menjadi dua instrumen, yaitu tenor 5 tahun dengan yield 5.4% dan tenor 10 tahun dengan yield 5.6%. Nilai yang dirilis untuk masing-masing instrumen adalah USD 1bn. Kami melihat tindakan ini sebagai hal positif yang akan memperkuat cadangan devisa Bank Indonesia. (CNBC Indonesia)

Global Economic News: Inflasi CPI Tiongkok kembali mengalami deflasi -0.2% yoy pada bulan Oktober (Sep: 0% yoy; Cons: -0.1% yoy). Deflasi ini disebabkan oleh turunnya harga pangan. Sementara itu, inflasi inti CPI tetap bertahan di 0.7% yoy (Sep: 0.7% yoy). Deflasi PPI melebar tipis menjadi -2.6% yoy (Sep: -2.5% yoy; Cons: -2.7% yoy). Menurut kami, rilis data ini menunjukkan ekonomi Tiongkok masih akan lemah hingga akhir tahun ini. (Nikkei)

Domestic Economic News: Indeks penjualan riil turun di bulan September menjadi 201.1 lebih baik dibandingkan proyeksi BI (BI Sep Forc: 200.2) dan diproyeksikan naik menjadi 206.3 di bulan Oktober. Angka ini menunjukkan Bank Indonesia yakin terhadap dampak dari kenaikan indeks kepercayaan konsumen menjadi 124.3 (Sep: 121.7) di bulan Oktober terhadap peningkatan belanja, terutama pada kategori makanan dan minuman, serta alat-alan informasi dan komunikasi. (Bank Indonesia)

Recommendation: FR0096, FR0097, FR0098, FR0100, FR0101.

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Samuel's Daily Macro and Fixed Income Report 10 November 2023 (Ind)
Samuel's Daily Macro and Fixed Income Report 10 November 2023 (Eng)

Download PDF

Samuel's Daily Macro and Fixed Income Report 10 November 2023 (Ind)
Samuel's Daily Macro and Fixed Income Report 10 November 2023 (Eng)

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