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Daily Report

16 June 2023

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Penurunan tajam surplus neraca dagang Mei picu kekhawatiran terhadap defisit neraca berjalan

Pasar obligasi domestik mengalami aksi jual yang tajam kemarin (15/6) karena rilis data ekspor-impor yang tidak terduga. Penurunan surplus neraca dagang Mei dari USD 3.9bn menjadi USD 0.4bn memicu kekhawatiran pasar terhadap kemungkinan defisit neraca berjalan yang tidak terkendali. Sehingga, imbal hasil (yield) INDOGB naik untuk semua tenor masing-masing sebesar 8 bps menjadi 5.81% (2Y), 3 bps menjadi 5.9% (5Y), dan 4 bps menjadi 6.3% (10Y). Menurut kami, penurunan ini hanya akan bersifat sementara akibat kenaikan aktivitas produksi dan investasi di sektor manufaktur pasca-Lebaran (lihat post-eid manufacturing rally put pressure on trade balance surplus). Sehingga, kondisi neraca berjalan FY23 akan tetap stabil di -0.1% terhadap PDB. Kami merekomendasikan investor untuk menunggu pasar kembali tenang dari kejutan ini. Kami memprediksi yield INDOGB 10Y hari ini masih akan tertekan di rentang 6.3-4%, yang diikuti depresiasi Rupiah ke rentang IDR 14,900-15,000 per USD.

Fixed Income News: Kementerian keuangan lakukan private placement SBSN program PPS. Sebagai bagian dari program pengungkapan pajak sukarela, pemerintah melakukan penerbitan PBS035 yang memiliki tenor 19 tahun kemarin (15/6). Kupon yang ditawarkan sebesar 6.75% dengan skema pembayaran per semester serta nilai imbal hasil (yield) 6.58% (Market yield: 6.73%). (DJPPR)

Global Economic News: ECB isyaratkan kenaikan suku bunga lanjutan di Bulan Juli. Bank Sentral Eropa (ECB) menaikkan suku bunga acuan sebesar 25 bps sesuai konsensus menjadi 4.25% untuk suku bunga pinjaman (MLR), 3.5% untuk suku deposito (DFR) dan 4% untuk suku bunga refinancing (Apr MRO: 3.75%; Cons May MRO: 4%). Selain itu, gubernur ECB Christine Lagarde juga mengumumkan rencana kenaikan lanjutan di bulan Juli sebesar 25 bps. Akan tetapi, rencana kenaikan ini tidak mengejutkan karena sesuai dengan hasil survei para pelaku pasar ECB di bulan Mei. Menurut kami, pernyataan tersebut diutarakan karena ECB masih ragu apakah perlu menaikkan suku bunga terminal mereka minimal 1X25 bps di bulan September. Saat ini, kami mengambil sikap wait-and-see terhadap arah kebijakan ECB, menunggu perkembangan data inflasi di bulan-bulan mendatang. (Bloomberg)

Domestic Economic News: Rasio utang luar negeri Indonesia terhadap PDB turun pada bulan April menjadi 29.8% (Mar: 30.1%). Secara nominal, angka tersebut mencerminkan penurunan utang luar negeri menjadi USD 403.1bn (Mar: USD 403.3bn). Utang luar negeri swasta mengalami penurunan tipis menjadi USD 199.6bn (Mar: USD 199.9bn). Sedangkan, utang luar negeri pemerintah naik tipis menjadi USD 194.1bn (Mar: USD 194bn). Menurut kami, kondisi utang luar negeri Indonesia saat ini masih terkendali. (Bank Indonesia)

Recommendation: FR0067, FR0076, FR0089, FR0081, FR0040, FR0084, FR0086, PBS017.

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Samuel's Daily Macro and Fixed Income Report 16 Juni 2023 (Ind)
Samuel's Daily Macro and Fixed Income Report 16 Juni 2023 (Eng)

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Samuel's Daily Macro and Fixed Income Report 16 Juni 2023 (Ind)
Samuel's Daily Macro and Fixed Income Report 16 Juni 2023 (Eng)

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