Research & Stock Picks

Daily Report

16 August 2023

By

Penurunan surplus neraca dagang Juli perkuat proyeksi defisit neraca berjalan 3Q23

Surplus neraca dagang Indonesia turun tajam di bulan Juni menjadi USD 1.3bn, lebih rendah dari ekspektasi (Cons: USD 2.6bn; SSI: USD 3.5bn). Penurunan ini disebabkan oleh kontraksi ekspor dua digit, terutama ekspor komoditas utama seperti batu bara, CPO, dan besi-baja. Sementara itu, kontraksi impor turun dari level dua digit menjadi satu digit akibat meningkatnya aktivitas konsumsi serta investasi yang ditopang oleh stimulus fiskal pemerintah menjelang Pemilihan Presiden 2024. Penurunan surplus neraca dagang ini mendukung proyeksi kami terhadap kemungkinan defisit neraca berjalan rolling sum 12 bulan pada 3Q23. Sayangnya, timing kenaikan probabilita defisit neraca berjalan 3Q23 terjadi di tengah tekanan depresiasi nilai tukar Rupiah yang kuat akibat krisis gagal bayar obligasi korporasi oleh Country Garden di Tiongkok. Kami melihat kemungkinan Bank Indonesia memprioritaskan kestabilan nilai tukar Rupiah hingga 4Q23, bila depresiasi Rupiah berlanjut hingga IDR 15,500 per USD. Walaupun kami tetap optimis terhadap kemungkinan pemangkasan suku bunga di 4Q23, hal ini akan bergantung kepada kecepatan dan keefektifan PBOC dalam membendung krisis yang saat ini terjadi.

Surplus neraca dagang Indonesia turun tajam di bulan Juli menjadi USD 1.3bn (Jun: USD 3.5bn; Cons: USD 2.6bn; SSI : USD 3.5bn). Penurunan ini disebabkan oleh kontraksi ekspor sebesar -18% yoy menjadi USD 20.9bn (Jun: -21.2% yoy; Cons: -19.2% yoy; SSI: -15% yoy) yang jauh lebih besar daripada kontraksi impor sebesar -8.3% yoy menjadi USD 19.6bn (Jun: 18.4% yoy; Cons: -15.3% yoy; SSI: -14.3% yoy). Menurut estimasi kami, penurunan ini disebabkan oleh kontraksi tajam ekspor komoditas utama (batu bara, CPO, dan besi-baja) sebesar -27.1% yoy menjadi USD 8.1bn (Jun: -23% yoy menjadi USD 8.3bn). Data menunjukkan kontraksi ekspor komoditas utama disebabkan oleh penurunan volume ekspor (quantity effect) saat rebound harga komoditas pada bulan Juli (lihat Chart 1).

Kontraksi impor yang lebih rendah di bulan Juli dibandingkan bulan sebelumnya disebabkan oleh meningkatnya aktivitas investasi serta konsumsi yang ditopang oleh stimulus fiskal pemerintah menjelang Pemilihan Presiden 2024 (Indonesia political business cycle has begun). Laju pertumbuhan impor barang konsumsi berbalik menjadi positif dari negatif pada bulan sebelumnya (26.9% yoy Vs. Jun: -6.6% yoy). Sementara itu, laju pertumbuhan impor barang modal meningkat menjadi 18.8% yoy (Jun: 4.1% yoy). Namun, impor bahan baku tetap mengalami kontraksi sebesar -16.7% yoy (Jun: -23.8% yoy), bahkan saat ekspansi di sektor manufaktur meningkat, seperti yang tercermin pada naiknya PMI menjadi 53.3 (Jun: 52.5; lihat Chart 2).

Menurunnya surplus neraca perdagangan Juli mendukung proyeksi kami atas defisit neraca berjalan rolling sum 12 bulan sebesar -0.1% terhadap PDB pada 3Q23. Sayangnya, kenaikan probabilita defisit neraca berjalan 3Q23 terjadi saat nilai tukar Rupiah mengalami tekanan depresiasi yang kuat akibat krisis gagal bayar obligasi korporasi sektor properti oleh pengembang Country Garden di Tiongkok. Apabila depresiasi Rupiah berlanjut hingga level IDR 15,500 per USD, maka Bank Indonesia akan memprioritaskan stabilisasi nilai tukar Rupiah hingga 4Q23 dengan cara mempertahankan tingkat suku bunga acuan 7DRRR (seven-day reverse repo rate) di 5.75%.

Walaupun kami masih optimis dengan skenario pemangkasan suku bunga BI pada 4Q23, skenario ini bergantung kepada kecepatan dan keefektifan Bank Sentral Tiongkok (PBOC) dalam memitigasi krisis yang terjadi saat ini.

Share This:

Highlights

Download PDF

More Related

Daily Stock Technical Recommendations

Jun 21, 2024

Daily Stock Technical – Jun 21, 2024

Daily Report

Jun 21, 2024

IHSG Berpotensi Melemah

Daily Report

Jun 20, 2024

IHSG Diperkirakan Bergerak Sideways Hari Ini

Daily Stock Technical Recommendations

Jun 20, 2024

Daily Stock Technical – Jun 20, 2024

Daily Report

Jun 19, 2024

IHSG Diperkirakan Bergerak Sideways Hari Ini

Daily Stock Technical Recommendations

Jun 19, 2024

Daily Stock Technical – Jun 19, 2024

Daily Report

Jun 14, 2024

Samuel Daily Economic Report 14 June 2024

Daily Stock Technical Recommendations

Jun 14, 2024

Daily Stock Technical – Jun 14, 2024

Daily Report

Jun 14, 2024

IHSG Diperkirakan Bergerak Sideways Hari Ini

Daily Stock Technical Recommendations

Jun 13, 2024

Daily Stock Technical – Jun 13, 2024

Daily Report

Jun 13, 2024

IHSG Berpotensi Mengalami Penguatan Hari Ini

Daily Report

Jun 12, 2024

Samuel Daily Economic Report 12 June 2024

Daily Stock Technical Recommendations

Jun 12, 2024

Daily Stock Technical – Jun 12, 2024

Daily Report

Jun 12, 2024

IHSG Berpotensi Naik Hari Ini

Daily Report

Jun 11, 2024

Samuel Daily Economic Report 11 June 2024

Daily Stock Technical Recommendations

Jun 11, 2024

Daily Stock Technical – Jun 11, 2024

Daily Report

Jun 10, 2024

Samuel Weekly Economic 10 June 2024

Daily Stock Technical Recommendations

Jun 10, 2024

Daily Stock Technical – Jun 10, 2024

Daily Report

Jun 10, 2024

IHSG Berpotensi Sideways

inflasi tahunan indonesia

Daily Report

Jun 7, 2024

Samuel Daily Economic 7 June 2024

Daily Stock Technical Recommendations

Jun 7, 2024

Daily Stock Technical – Jun 07, 2024

Daily Report

Jun 7, 2024

IHSG Diperkirakan Bergerak Sideways Hari Ini

Daily Stock Technical Recommendations

Jun 6, 2024

Daily Stock Technical – Jun 06, 2024

Daily Report

Jun 6, 2024

IHSG Diperkirakan Bergerak Sideways Hari Ini

inflasi tahunan indonesia

Daily Report

Jun 5, 2024

Samuel Daily Research 5 June 2024

Daily Stock Technical Recommendations

Jun 5, 2024

Daily Stock Technical – Jun 05, 2024

Daily Report

Jun 5, 2024

IHSG Berpotensi Sideways Hari Ini

Emiten Report

Jun 4, 2024

Banking Sector – Overweight – 4M24 Bank-Only Results

Daily Report

Jun 4, 2024

Samuel Daily Economic 4 June 2024

Daily Stock Technical Recommendations

Jun 4, 2024

Daily Stock Technical – Jun 04, 2024

Daily Report

Jun 3, 2024

Indonesia Manufacturing PMI: 3 June 2024

Daily Report

Jun 3, 2024

Indonesia May Inflation: 3 June 2024

Emiten Report

Jun 3, 2024

PGAS Update, BUY TP: 1,800 (from 1,300)

Daily Report

Jun 3, 2024

IHSG Berpotensi Sideways

Daily Stock Technical Recommendations

Jun 3, 2024

Daily Stock Technical – Jun 03, 2024

Daily Stock Technical Recommendations

May 31, 2024

Daily Stock Technical – May 31, 2024

Daily Report

May 31, 2024

IHSG Berpotensi Rebound Hari Ini

Daily Report

May 30, 2024

Samuel Daily Economic Report: 30 May 2024

Daily Stock Technical Recommendations

May 30, 2024

Daily Stock Technical – May 30, 2024

Daily Stock Technical Recommendations

May 29, 2024

Daily Stock Technical – May 29, 2024

Daily Report

May 29, 2024

IHSG Berpotensi Sideways Hari Ini

Daily Stock Technical Recommendations

May 28, 2024

Daily Stock Technical – May 28, 2024

Daily Report

May 27, 2024

IHSG Berpotensi Sideways

Daily Stock Technical Recommendations

May 27, 2024

Daily Stock Technical – May 27, 2024

Daily Stock Technical Recommendations

May 22, 2024

Daily Stock Technical – May 22, 2024

May 22, 2024

Daily Stock Technical – May 22, 2024

Daily Report

May 22, 2024

IHSG Berpotensi Melemah

Daily Stock Technical Recommendations

May 21, 2024

Daily Stock Technical – May 21, 2024

Daily Report

May 20, 2024

IHSG Berpotensi Menguat

Daily Stock Technical Recommendations

May 20, 2024

Daily Stock Technical – May 20, 2024

Daily Stock Technical Recommendations

May 17, 2024

Daily Stock Technical – May 17, 2024

Daily Report

May 17, 2024

IHSG Berpotensi Melemah

Daily Stock Technical Recommendations

May 16, 2024

Daily Stock Technical – May 16, 2024

Daily Report

May 16, 2024

IHSG Berpotensi Menguat

Emiten Report

May 15, 2024

BRMS – BUY (Maintain) – TP IDR 230 – Improved Earnings Ahead

Daily Report

May 15, 2024

Samuel Daily Economic 15 May 2024

Daily Stock Technical Recommendations

May 15, 2024

Daily Stock Technical – May 15, 2024

Daily Report

May 15, 2024

IHSG Berpotensi Menguat Hari Ini

Daily Report

May 14, 2024

Samuel Daily Macro: 14 May 2024

Daily Stock Technical Recommendations

May 13, 2024

Daily Stock Technical – May 14, 2024

Daily Report

May 13, 2024

Samuel Weekly Macro: 1st Week of May 2024

Daily Stock Technical Recommendations

May 13, 2024

Daily Stock Technical – May 13, 2024

Daily Report

May 13, 2024

IHSG Berpotensi Menguat Hari Ini

Daily Stock Technical Recommendations

May 8, 2024

Daily Stock Technical – May 08, 2024

Daily Report

May 8, 2024

IHSG Berpotensi Sideways Hari Ini

Daily Stock Technical Recommendations

May 7, 2024

Daily Stock Technical – May 07, 2024

Daily Report

May 6, 2024

IHSG Berpotensi Menguat Hari ini

Daily Stock Technical Recommendations

May 6, 2024

Daily Stock Technical – May 06, 2024

Daily Stock Technical Recommendations

May 4, 2024

Daily Stock Technical – 05 Feb 2024

Daily Stock Technical Recommendations

May 3, 2024

Daily Stock Technical – May 03, 2024

Daily Report

May 3, 2024

JCI is Expected to Move Sideways Today

Daily Report

May 2, 2024

JCI Is Expected to Decline Today

Daily Stock Technical Recommendations

May 2, 2024

Daily Stock Technical – May 02, 2024

Daily Stock Technical Recommendations

Apr 30, 2024

Daily Stock Technical – 30 April 2024

Daily Report

Apr 29, 2024

IHSG Berpotensi Menguat Hari Ini

Daily Stock Technical Recommendations

Apr 29, 2024

Daily Stock Technical – 29 April 2024

Daily Stock Technical Recommendations

Apr 26, 2024

Daily Stock Technical – 26 April 2024

Daily Report

Apr 26, 2024

IHSG Berpotensi Menguat

Daily Report

Apr 25, 2024

IHSG Berpotensi Sideways

Daily Stock Technical Recommendations

Apr 25, 2024

Daily Stock Technical – 25 April 2024

Daily Stock Technical Recommendations

Apr 24, 2024

Daily Stock Technical – 24 April 2024

Daily Report

Apr 24, 2024

IHSG Berpotensi Menguat Hari Ini

Daily Stock Technical Recommendations

Apr 23, 2024

Daily Stock Technical – 23 April 2024

Daily Report

Apr 22, 2024

IHSG Berpotensi Melemah

Daily Stock Technical Recommendations

Apr 22, 2024

Daily Stock Technical – 22 April 2024

Daily Report

Apr 19, 2024

IHSG Berpotensi Melemah

Daily Report

Apr 18, 2024

IHSG Berpotensi Bergerak Sideways

Daily Stock Technical Recommendations

Apr 17, 2024

Daily Stock Technical – 17 April 2024

Daily Report

Apr 17, 2024

IHSG Berpotensi Menguat

Daily Report

Apr 16, 2024

IHSG Berpotensi Bergerak Melemah

Daily Stock Technical Recommendations

Apr 16, 2024

Daily Stock Technical – 16 April 2024

Daily Stock Technical Recommendations

Apr 5, 2024

Daily Stock Technical – 05 April 2024

Daily Report

Apr 5, 2024

IHSG Berpotensi Melemah

Daily Stock Technical Recommendations

Apr 4, 2024

Daily Stock Technical – 04 April 2024

Daily Report

Apr 4, 2024

IHSG Berpotensi Bergerak Sideways

Daily Stock Technical Recommendations

Apr 3, 2024

Daily Stock Technical – 03 April 2024

Daily Report

Apr 3, 2024

IHSG Berpotensi Melemah Hari Ini

Daily Stock Technical Recommendations

Apr 2, 2024

Daily Stock Technical – 02 April 2024

Daily Report

Apr 1, 2024

IHSG Berpotensi Bergerak Menguat