Research & Stock Picks

Daily Report

15 June 2023

By

Pasar skeptis terhadap nada hawkish the Fed

Menurut pengamatan kami, pasar merasa ragu-ragu terhadap nada hawkish pada proyeksi terbaru the Fed (lihat global economic news). Imbal hasil (yield) UST 10Y turun sebesar -3 bps menjadi 3.79% tadi malam. Sementara itu, indeks komoditas S&P-Goldman Sachs naik 1%. Indeks dolar AS melemah -0.4% dan indeks-indeks saham di Amerika Serikat bergerak bervariasi dengan Nasdaq bergerak naik 0.4%, tetapi Dow Jones turun -0.7%. Menurut kami, hal ini disebabkan penurunan tajam inflasi PPI AS di bulan Mei menjadi 1.1% yoy (Apr: 2.3% yoy; Cons May: 1.5% yoy), yang menunjukkan kuatnya deselerasi inflasi AS bulan lalu. Menurut kami, kondisi ini bisa menjadi angin segar bagi pasar obligasi domestik yang mulai menunjukkan kembalinya bullish rally dari arus masuk modal asing dalam satu minggu terakhir. Kami merekomendasikan kepada investor untuk menambah portofolio obligasi di tenor 2Y, 20Y, dan 30Y setelah take profit beberapa waktu lalu. Kami memprediksi yield INDOGB 10Y akan mengalami konsolidasi di rentang 6.25-6.35% hari ini, yang diikuti apresiasi Rupiah ke rentang IDR 14,800-14,900 per USD.

Fixed Income News: Mandiri Tunas Finance tawarkan Obligasi Berkelanjutan VI Tahap I Tahun 2023 dengan nilai IDR 1tn. Obligasi ini terbagi menjadi dua seri, yaitu Seri A dengan tenor 3 tahun dan kupon 5.8-6.6%, dan seri B dengan tenor 5 tahun dan kupon 6.1-6.95%. Dana perolehan dari obligasi ini akan digunakan untuk memperkuat modal kerja MTF yang  mencetak pertumbuhan profit 205.1% menjadi IDR 750bn pada 2022. (Emitennews)

Global Economic News: The Fed proyeksikan kenaikan suku bunga 2X25 bps di 2H23. The Fed mempertahankan suku bunga acuan di 5.25% sesuai konsensus tadi malam (14/6). Di waktu yang bersamaan, the Fed merilis proyeksi terbaru mereka. Dalam proyeksi tersebut, the Fed merasa lebih optimis terhadap daya tahan perekonomian Amerika Serikat dengan menaikkan proyeksi pertumbuhan 2023 ke 1.1% (Prev: 0.4%) serta menurunkan proyeksi tingkat pengangguran ke 4.1% (Prev: 4.5%). Proyeksi inflasi juga turun menjadi 3.2% (Prev: 3.3%), tetapi proyeksi inflasi inti naik menjadi 3.9% (Prev: 3.6%) Menghadapi kemungkinan kuatnya daya tahan inflasi inti hingga akhir tahun, the Fed menaikkan proyeksi suku bunga puncak (terminal) sebesar 50 bps menjadi 5.625% (Prev: 5.125%). Menurut kami, proyeksi ini hanya menunjukkan fleksibilitas the Fed untuk menaikkan suku bunga bila dibutuhkan sewaktu-waktu. (Wall Street Journal)

Domestic Economic News: Pemerintah dan DPR sepakati defisit APBN 2024 2.16-2.64%. Selain itu, pemerintah juga menargetkan rasio pajak terhadap PDB di kisaran 9.95-10.2%, lebih tinggi dari target tahun ini 9.61%. Kami menyambut positif target defisit APBN 2024 yang lebih rendah untuk meredam potensi defisit neraca berjalan yang lebih besar di 2024 akibat perlambatan lebih lanjut harga komoditas global. (Bisnis Indonesia)

Recommendation: FR0067, FR0076, FR0089, FR0081, FR0040, FR0084, FR0086, PBS017.

Share This:

Highlights

Download PDF

Download PDF

Samuel's Daily Macro and Fixed Income Report 15 Juni 2023 (Ind)
Samuel's Daily Macro and Fixed Income Report 15 Juni 2023 (Eng)

Download PDF

Samuel's Daily Macro and Fixed Income Report 15 Juni 2023 (Ind)
Samuel's Daily Macro and Fixed Income Report 15 Juni 2023 (Eng)

More Related

Daily Stock Technical Recommendations

Jul 23, 2024

Daily Stock Technical – Jul 23, 2024

Daily Report

Jul 22, 2024

Samuel Weekly Economic 22 July 2024

Daily Report

Jul 22, 2024

IHSG Berpotensi Melemah Hari Ini

Daily Stock Technical Recommendations

Jul 22, 2024

Daily Stock Technical – Jul 22, 2024

Daily Report

Jul 19, 2024

IHSG Berpotensi Melemah

Daily Stock Technical Recommendations

Jul 18, 2024

Daily Stock Technical – Jul 18, 2024

Daily Report

Jul 18, 2024

IHSG Berpotensi Melemah Hari Ini

Daily Stock Technical Recommendations

Jul 17, 2024

Daily Stock Technical – Jul 17, 2024

Daily Report

Jul 17, 2024

IHSG Berpotensi Melemah Hari Ini

Daily Stock Technical Recommendations

Jul 16, 2024

Daily Stock Technical – Jul 16, 2024

Daily Report

Jul 15, 2024

Samuel Weekly Economic Report 15 July 2024

Daily Report

Jul 15, 2024

IHSG Berpotensi Menguat Hari Ini

Daily Stock Technical Recommendations

Jul 15, 2024

Daily Stock Technical – Jul 15, 2024

Daily Report

Jul 12, 2024

Samuel Daily Economic 12 July 2024

Daily Stock Technical Recommendations

Jul 12, 2024

Daily Stock Technical – Jul 12, 2024

Daily Report

Jul 12, 2024

IHSG Berpotensi Melemah

Daily Stock Technical Recommendations

Jul 11, 2024

Daily Stock Technical – Jul 11, 2024

Daily Report

Jul 11, 2024

IHSG Diperkirakan Menguat Hari Ini

Daily Stock Technical Recommendations

Jul 10, 2024

Daily Stock Technical – Jul 10, 2024

Daily Report

Jul 10, 2024

IHSG Diperkirakan Bergerak Sideways Hari Ini

Daily Stock Technical Recommendations

Jul 9, 2024

Daily Stock Technical – Jul 09, 2024

Daily Report

Jul 8, 2024

Samuel Weekly Economic Report 8 July 2024

Daily Report

Jul 8, 2024

IHSG Berpotensi Menguat Hari Ini

Daily Stock Technical Recommendations

Jul 8, 2024

Daily Stock Technical – Jul 08, 2024

Daily Stock Technical Recommendations

Jul 5, 2024

Samuel Daily Stock Technical – Jul 05, 2024

Daily Report

Jul 5, 2024

IHSG Berpotensi Menguat Hari Ini

Daily Report

Jul 4, 2024

Samuel Daily Economic 4 July 2024

Daily Stock Technical Recommendations

Jul 4, 2024

Daily Stock Technical – Jul 04, 2024

Daily Report

Jul 4, 2024

IHSG Berpotensi Menguat Hari Ini

Daily Report

Jul 3, 2024

Samuel Daily Economic 3 July 2024

Daily Stock Technical Recommendations

Jul 3, 2024

Daily Stock Technical – Jul 03, 2024

Daily Report

Jul 3, 2024

IHSG Berpotensi Menguat

Emiten Report

Jul 2, 2024

Telco Sector – Neutral – Disruption from Space

Daily Stock Technical Recommendations

Jul 2, 2024

Daily Stock Technical – JuL 02, 2024

Daily Report

Jul 1, 2024

Samuel Quarterly Macro Report

Daily Report

Jul 1, 2024

IHSG Berpotensi Menguat Hari Ini

Daily Stock Technical Recommendations

Jul 1, 2024

Samuel Daily Stock Technical – JuL 01, 2024

Daily Report

Jun 28, 2024

Samuel Daily Economic Report 28 June 2024

Daily Stock Technical Recommendations

Jun 28, 2024

Daily Stock Technical – Jun 28, 2024

Daily Report

Jun 28, 2024

IHSG Berpotensi Menguat

Daily Stock Technical Recommendations

Jun 27, 2024

Daily Stock Technical – Jun 27, 2024

Daily Report

Jun 27, 2024

IHSG Berpotensi Menguat Hari Ini

Daily Report

Jun 26, 2024

Samuel Daily Economic 26 June 2024

Daily Stock Technical Recommendations

Jun 26, 2024

Daily Stock Technical – Jun 26, 2024

Daily Report

Jun 26, 2024

IHSG Berpotensi Bergerak Sideways Hari Ini

Daily Stock Technical Recommendations

Jun 25, 2024

Daily Stock Technical – Jun 25, 2024

Daily Report

Jun 24, 2024

IHSG Berpotensi Melemah

Daily Stock Technical Recommendations

Jun 24, 2024

Daily Stock Technical – Jun 24, 2024

Daily Stock Technical Recommendations

Jun 21, 2024

Daily Stock Technical – Jun 21, 2024

Daily Report

Jun 21, 2024

IHSG Berpotensi Melemah

Daily Report

Jun 20, 2024

IHSG Diperkirakan Bergerak Sideways Hari Ini

Daily Stock Technical Recommendations

Jun 20, 2024

Daily Stock Technical – Jun 20, 2024

Daily Report

Jun 19, 2024

IHSG Diperkirakan Bergerak Sideways Hari Ini

Daily Stock Technical Recommendations

Jun 19, 2024

Daily Stock Technical – Jun 19, 2024

Daily Report

Jun 14, 2024

Samuel Daily Economic Report 14 June 2024

Daily Stock Technical Recommendations

Jun 14, 2024

Daily Stock Technical – Jun 14, 2024

Daily Report

Jun 14, 2024

IHSG Diperkirakan Bergerak Sideways Hari Ini

Daily Stock Technical Recommendations

Jun 13, 2024

Daily Stock Technical – Jun 13, 2024

Daily Report

Jun 13, 2024

IHSG Berpotensi Mengalami Penguatan Hari Ini

Daily Report

Jun 12, 2024

Samuel Daily Economic Report 12 June 2024

Daily Stock Technical Recommendations

Jun 12, 2024

Daily Stock Technical – Jun 12, 2024

Daily Report

Jun 12, 2024

IHSG Berpotensi Naik Hari Ini

Daily Report

Jun 11, 2024

Samuel Daily Economic Report 11 June 2024

Daily Stock Technical Recommendations

Jun 11, 2024

Daily Stock Technical – Jun 11, 2024

Daily Report

Jun 10, 2024

Samuel Weekly Economic 10 June 2024

Daily Stock Technical Recommendations

Jun 10, 2024

Daily Stock Technical – Jun 10, 2024

Daily Report

Jun 10, 2024

IHSG Berpotensi Sideways

inflasi tahunan indonesia

Daily Report

Jun 7, 2024

Samuel Daily Economic 7 June 2024

Daily Stock Technical Recommendations

Jun 7, 2024

Daily Stock Technical – Jun 07, 2024

Daily Report

Jun 7, 2024

IHSG Diperkirakan Bergerak Sideways Hari Ini

Daily Stock Technical Recommendations

Jun 6, 2024

Daily Stock Technical – Jun 06, 2024

Daily Report

Jun 6, 2024

IHSG Diperkirakan Bergerak Sideways Hari Ini

inflasi tahunan indonesia

Daily Report

Jun 5, 2024

Samuel Daily Research 5 June 2024

Daily Stock Technical Recommendations

Jun 5, 2024

Daily Stock Technical – Jun 05, 2024

Daily Report

Jun 5, 2024

IHSG Berpotensi Sideways Hari Ini

Emiten Report

Jun 4, 2024

Banking Sector – Overweight – 4M24 Bank-Only Results

Daily Report

Jun 4, 2024

Samuel Daily Economic 4 June 2024

Daily Stock Technical Recommendations

Jun 4, 2024

Daily Stock Technical – Jun 04, 2024

Daily Report

Jun 3, 2024

Indonesia Manufacturing PMI: 3 June 2024

Daily Report

Jun 3, 2024

Indonesia May Inflation: 3 June 2024

Emiten Report

Jun 3, 2024

PGAS Update, BUY TP: 1,800 (from 1,300)

Daily Report

Jun 3, 2024

IHSG Berpotensi Sideways

Daily Stock Technical Recommendations

Jun 3, 2024

Daily Stock Technical – Jun 03, 2024

Daily Stock Technical Recommendations

May 31, 2024

Daily Stock Technical – May 31, 2024

Daily Report

May 31, 2024

IHSG Berpotensi Rebound Hari Ini

Daily Report

May 30, 2024

Samuel Daily Economic Report: 30 May 2024

Daily Stock Technical Recommendations

May 30, 2024

Daily Stock Technical – May 30, 2024

Daily Stock Technical Recommendations

May 29, 2024

Daily Stock Technical – May 29, 2024

Daily Report

May 29, 2024

IHSG Berpotensi Sideways Hari Ini

Daily Stock Technical Recommendations

May 28, 2024

Daily Stock Technical – May 28, 2024

Daily Report

May 27, 2024

IHSG Berpotensi Sideways

Daily Stock Technical Recommendations

May 27, 2024

Daily Stock Technical – May 27, 2024

Daily Stock Technical Recommendations

May 22, 2024

Daily Stock Technical – May 22, 2024

May 22, 2024

Daily Stock Technical – May 22, 2024

Daily Report

May 22, 2024

IHSG Berpotensi Melemah

Daily Stock Technical Recommendations

May 21, 2024

Daily Stock Technical – May 21, 2024

Daily Report

May 20, 2024

IHSG Berpotensi Menguat

Daily Stock Technical Recommendations

May 20, 2024

Daily Stock Technical – May 20, 2024

Daily Stock Technical Recommendations

May 17, 2024

Daily Stock Technical – May 17, 2024