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Daily Report

29 May 2023

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Pasar perkirakan Fed rate pause Juni batal

Ekspektasi batalnya Fed rate pause terbentuk setelah rilis data inflasi PCE Amerika Serikat yang tercatat memantul naik pada Jumat lalu (29/5). Akibatnya sebagian besar analies (68%) memperkirakan suku bunga acuan the Fed akan kembali naik pada bulan Juni sebesar 25 bps menjadi 5.5% (lihat global economic news). Respon pasar terhadap situasi ini relatif lebih tenang karena potensi terjadinya peristiwa ini sudah diantisipasi dalam periode perdagangan sebelumnya. Misalnya, indeks S&P untuk obligasi negara-negara maju hanya terkoreksi -0.1% yang diikut dengan pergerakan saling bertentangan antara imbal hasil (yield) UST dan Bund 10-tahun. Yield UST 10-tahun turun -2 bps menjadi 3.8%, tetapi yield Bund 10-tahun naik 2 bps menjadi 2.54%. Investor di pasar obligasi Indonesia juga sudah mengantisipasi hal ini. Hal ini tercermin dari pergerakan yield INDOGB yang cenderung flat, kecuali bagi instrumen tenor pendek (2-tahun) yang turun tipis sebesar -2 bps menjadi 5.83%. Sementara itu, yield INDON naik di seluruh tenor dengan kondisi inverted yield curve semakin melebar antara INDON 10- vs 2-tahun.  Kami memprediksi yield INDOGB 10-tahun masih akan bergerak flat di rentang 6.4-6.5% hari ini. Sementara itu, Rupiah kemungkinan terkonsolidasi dalam rentang IDR 14,950-15,050 per USD.

Fixed Income News: Pemerintah terbitkan PBS029 dengan cara private placement pada Kamis lalu (29/5). Nilai obligasi PBS029 yang diterbitkan adalah sebesar IDR 1.76tn dengan imbal hasil (yield 6.69%). Adapun nilai kupon yang disematkan adalah tetap (fixed) sebesar  6.375% dengan tenor 11 tahun atau masa jatuh tempo 15 Maret 2034. (DJPPR)

Global Economic News: Inflasi PCE AS memantul naik pada bulan April menjadi 4.4% yoy (Mar: 4.2% yoy; Cons Apr: 3.9% yoy). Inflasi inti PCE Amerika Serikat juga memantul naik menjadi 4.7% yoy (Mar: 4.6% yoy; Cons Apr: 4.6% yoy). Rilis data ini membuat pasar yakin bahwa the Fed akan mengambil langkah putar balik atas keputusan menyetop kenaikan suku bunga di bulan Juni. Berdasarkan survei CME, 68% analis memprediksi berlanjutnya kenaikan suku bunga acuan the Fed sebesar 25 bps menjadi 5.5% bulan depan. (CNBC)

Domestic Economic News: Kementerian Keuangan tunda diskusi regulasi obligasi daerah hingga selesai Pemilu 2024. Keputusan tersebut diumumkan oleh Direktur Surat Utang Negara dari Direktorat Jenderal Pengelolaan Pembiayaan dan Risiko (DJPRR) Kemenkeu. Sebelumnya, pembahasan regulasi ini ditunda selama pandemi COVID-19 karena maraknya aksi jual obligasi di pasar dalam negeri oleh investor asing. (Bisnis Indonesia)

Recommendation: FR0098, FR0050, FR0079, FR0081, FR0040, FR0084, FR0086, PBS017.

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Samuel's Daily Macro and Fixed Income Report 29 Mei 2023 (Ind)
Samuel's Daily Macro and Fixed Income Report 29 Mei 2023 (Eng)

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Samuel's Daily Macro and Fixed Income Report 29 Mei 2023 (Ind)
Samuel's Daily Macro and Fixed Income Report 29 Mei 2023 (Eng)

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