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Daily Report

02 August 2023

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Pasar obligasi domestik dibayang-bayangi downgrade rating AS dan lesunya permintaan di pasar primer

Pasar saham dan obligasi global tertekan aksi jual tadi malam (1/8) setelah Fitch Rating menurunkan peringkat utang jangka panjang pemerintah Amerika Serikat (lihat global economic news). Indeks-indeks saham di AS (kecuali Dow Jones) dan Eropa turun masing-masing sebesar -0.4% dan -1.3%. Indeks obligasi S&P untuk developed market dan EMBI untuk emerging market juga turun masing-masing sebesar -0.4% dan -0.5%. Kami memperkirakan buruknya sentimen di pasar global akan membuat pasar domestik semakin tertekan. Walaupun indeks ICBI naik 0.1%, indeks IDMA yang mencerminkan sentimen pasar atas obligasi pemerintah turun sebesar -0.3% akibat lesunya tingkat permintaan pada lelang SBSN kemarin (lihat fixed income news). Kami memperkirakan yield INDOGB 10Y akan naik ke rentang 6.25-6.35%. Sementara itu, Rupiah berpotensi terdepresiasi ke rentang IDR 15,100-15,200 per USD hari ini akibat menguatnya indeks dolar 0.4% semalam dan masih berlanjutnya depresiasi Yen Jepang 0.7% kemarin.

Fixed Income News: Jumlah penwaran masuk pada lelang SBSN (2/8) turun menjadi IDR 22.1tn (18/7: IDR 24.3tn). Nilai tersebut sedikit lebih rendah dari batas bawah perkiraan kami (IDR 23-28tn). Menurut kami, turunnya tingkat permintaan di lelang obligasi primer dapat memperburuk situasi di pasar sekunder yang tengah tertekan kondisi global. (DJPPR)

Global Economic News: Fitch Ratings turunkan peringkat utang jangka panjang Amerika Serikat menjadi ‘AA+’ (Prev: ‘AAA’) dengan outlook negatif. Fitch menyatakan keputusan ini dilatar belakangi oleh tiga faktor, yakni a) memburuknya prospek defisit anggaran FY23 pemerintah AS yang diperkirakan naik menjadi -6.3% terhadap PDB (2022: -3.7% terhadap PDB), b) tingginya potensi resesi AS pada 4Q23, dan c) manajemen fiskal yang memburuk akibat sulitnya mencapai konsensus diantara kubu-kubu politik yang ada. Menurut kami, keputusan Fitch dapat membuat pasar global dan domestik bergolak hingga akhir pekan ini. (CNBC)

Domestic Economic News: PMI manufaktur Juli naik menjadi 53.3 (Jun: 52.5). Kenaikan ini disebabkan oleh naiknya tingkat permintaan domestik dan luar negeri terhadap produk manufaktur, yang meningkatkan aktivitas pembelian bahan baku. Ekspansi yang dilakukan oleh pemasok juga membantu mengurangi waktu tunggu pesanan. Inflasi produsen mulai menunjukkan tanda-tanda kenaikan akibat meningkatnya permintaan. Akan tetapi, hal ini diyakini tidak akan menjadi masalah karena tingkat inflasi produsen masih berada di bawah rata-rata 2 tahun terakhir. (S&P Global)

Recommendation: FR0037, FR0040, FR0056, FR0084, FR0086, FR0090, PBS032, PBS036.

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Samuel's Daily Macro and Fixed Income Report 2 Agustus 2023 (Ind)
Samuel's Daily Macro and Fixed Income Report 2 Agustus 2023 (Eng)

Download PDF

Samuel's Daily Macro and Fixed Income Report 2 Agustus 2023 (Ind)
Samuel's Daily Macro and Fixed Income Report 2 Agustus 2023 (Eng)

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