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Daily Report

27 July 2023

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Pasar merespon datar pengumuman suku bunga Fed, pasar obligasi domestik melanjutkan koreksi

Pasar global bergerak flat semalam (27/7) setelah pengumuman suku bunga the Federal Reserve yang naik 25 bps menjadi 5.5% (lihat global economic news).Hal ini tidaklah mengejutkan karena pasar sudah mengantisipasi kebijakan tersebut. Sementara itu, pasar obligasi domestik tetap tertekan oleh koreksi di tenor 10Y dan 5Y, naik sebesar 3 bps menjadi masing-masing 6.27% dan 5.96%. Penyebab koreksi ini adalah terlalu tingginya posisi suku bunga BI 7DRRR saat ini bila dibandingkan dengan realita inflasi yang sudah kembali ke dalam rentang target Bank Indonesia. Akibatnya atensi investor domestik dan asing semakin tertuju ke pasar saham yang melanjutkan kenaikan mendekati batas resisten teknikal di 7,000. Menurut kami, kondisi ini akan terus berlanjut hingga BI mulai memberikan sinyal-sinyal rate cuts. Kami memperkirakan yield INDOGB 10Y akan bergerak naik menuju rentang 6.25-6.35% hari ini. Sedangkan, Rupiah berpotensi terapresiasi ke rentang IDR 14,850-14,950 per USD akibat pelemahan indeks dolar sebesar -0.5% semalam menjadi 100.9.

Fixed Income News: Kementerian Keuangan terbitkan SUN dan berdenominasi Rupiah dan USD untuk program pengungkapan sukarela. Transaksi tersebut diselesaikan Jumat pekan lalu (21/7). Adapun SUN yang diterbitkan adalah seri FR0099 sebesar IDR 512.8bn dengan yield 6% dan seri USD FR0003 sebesar USD 9.8mn dengan yield 4.9%. (DJPPR)

Global Economic News: The Fed naikkan suku bunga acuan sebesar 25 bps menjadi 5.5%. Selain itu, Ketua Federal Reserve Jerome Powell menyatakan bahwa bank sentral Amerika Serikat tersebut terbuka untuk kenaikkan suku bunga berikutnya sesuai proyeksi Juni lalu. Akan tetapi, keputusan tersebut tergantung pada perkembangan inflasi pada bulan-bulan mendatang. Kami melihat kenaikkan suku bunga the Fed bulan ini sebagai yang terakhir, tetapi perlu dikonfirmasi dengan rilis data inflasi PCE inti bulan Juni pada hari Jumat besok (28/7) yang menurut konsensus turun menjadi 4.2% yoy (May: 4.6% yoy). (Investing)

Domestic Economic News: IMF mempertahankan proyeksi pertumbuhan PDB Indonesia FY23 di 5%, tetapi menurunkan proyeksi FY24 menjadi 5% (Prev: 5.1%). Sedangkan, ADB mempertahankan proyeksi pertumbuhan PDB FY23 dan FY24 masing-masing di 4.8% dan 5%. Bank Dunia (WB) juga ikut mempertahankan proyeksi pertumbuhan PDB FY24 di 4.9%, tetapi menurunkan proyeksi FY23 menjadi 4.9% (Prev: 5%). Proyeksi tersebut tidak terpaut jauh dari proyeksi kami untuk FY23 dan FY 24 masing-masing di 4.7% dan 4.9%. (IMF)

Recommendation: FR0037, FR0040, FR0056, FR0084, FR0086, FR0090, PBS032, PBS036.

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Samuel's Daily Macro and Fixed Income Report 27 Juli 2023 (Ind)
Samuel's Daily Macro and Fixed Income Report 27 Juli 2023 (Eng)

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Samuel's Daily Macro and Fixed Income Report 27 Juli 2023 (Ind)
Samuel's Daily Macro and Fixed Income Report 27 Juli 2023 (Eng)

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