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Daily Report

22 June 2023

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Pasar menunggu momentum

Pasar obligasi global cenderung bergerak sideways tadi malam (21/7). Hal tersebut tercermin dari pergerakan imbal hasil (yield) UST 10Y sebesar 0 bps. Hal yang sama juga terjadi pada indeks S&P untuk obligasi negara-negara maju yang bergerak di kisaran nol persen. Menurut kami kondisi disebabkan oleh kebingungan di pasar dalam menyikapi testimoni dari kepala Federal Reserve Jerome Powell di hadapan Kongres Amerika Serikat tadi malam. Dalam testimoninya, Powell berusaha untuk mempertahankan keputusan menaikkan suku bunga puncak (terminal) sebesar 50 bps hingga 5.675% di 2H23. Di waktu yang sama, Gubernur Fed Atlanta Raphael Bostic memilih untuk menunggu rilis data-data pasar tenaga kerja dan inflasi bulan Juni sebelum mengambil keputusan di bulan Juli. Berkaca pada kondisi ini, kami memperkirakan pergerakan pasar selama tiga minggu ke depan akan ditentukan oleh rilis data seperti inflasi PCE AS bulan Mei minggu depan, pasar tenaga kerja AS bulan Juni di minggu berikutnya, dan inflasi CPI bulan Juni pada minggu ketiga. Kami memperkirakan yield INDOGB 10Y masih akan cenderung bergerak sideways hari ini di rentang 6.3-4%. Sementara itu, nilai tukar Rupiah masih akan tertekan dalam rentang IDR 14,950-15,050 per USD.

Fixed Income News: Kementerian Keuangan peroleh dana IDR 137.2bn dari penerbitan SBSN melalui private placement. SBSN yang diterbitkan adalah PBS035 dengan tenor 20 tahun dank upon 6.75%. Imbal hasil (yield) yang diberikan adalah sebesar 6.58%, lebih kecil daripada yield pasar sebesar 6.89%. Penerbitan SBSN ini merupakan bagian dari program pengungkapan sukarela. (DJPPR)

Global Economic News: BOE berpotensi menaikkan suku bunga terminal akibat resiliensi inflasi Britania Raya. Hasil rilis data inflasi CPI Britania Raya bulan Mei tidak sesuai harapan pasar. Alih-alih turun sesuai konsensus, inflasi CPI bertahan di 8.7% yoy (Apr: 8.7% yoy; Cons May: 8.4% yoy). Sementara itu, inflasi inti CPI Britania Raya memantul naik (rebound) menjadi 7.1% yoy (Apr: & Cons May: 6.8% yoy). Menurut kami, Bank Sentral Inggris (BOE) masih akan menaikkan suku bunga hingga 3Q23 hingga mencapai 5.25% atau 50 bps lebih tinggi daripada ekspektasi pasar sebelumnya di 4.75%. (Reuters)

Domestic Economic News: Pemerintah menghentikan program bebas visa bagi seluruh negara, kecuali negara-negara anggota ASEAN. Keputusan ini diambil sebagai respon atas meningkatnya kasus-kasus pelanggaran yang dilakukan oleh wisatawan asing, terutama di kawasan wisata seperti Bali. Menurut kami, keputusan ini akan memperlebar defisit neraca dagang jasa Indonesia, yang selanjutnya bermuara pada kenaikan defisit neraca berjalan. Situasi ini bisa membuat volatilitas pergerakan USD/IDR semakin berkepanjangan. (Kontan)

Recommendation: FR0067, FR0076, FR0089, FR0081, FR0040, FR0084, FR0086, PBS017.

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Samuel's Daily Macro and Fixed Income Report 22 Juni 2023 (Ind)
Samuel's Daily Macro and Fixed Income Report 22 Juni 2023 (Eng)

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Samuel's Daily Macro and Fixed Income Report 22 Juni 2023 (Ind)
Samuel's Daily Macro and Fixed Income Report 22 Juni 2023 (Eng)

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