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Daily Report

21 June 2023

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Pasar domestik tertekan, tetapi pasar negara maju rally

Pasar obligasi sekunder domestik tertekan kemarin (20/3) akibat turunnya jumlah penawaran masuk sebesar -31% menjadi IDR 41.4tn dibandingkan dengan lelang SBSN sebelumnya (lihat fixed income news). Akibat situasi ini, indeks ICBI dan IDMA turun masing-masing sebesar -0.1%. Imbal hasil (yield) INDOGB tenor panjang 10Y dan tenor pendek 2Y naik tipis sebesar 1 bps menjadi masing-masing 6.34% dan 5.86%. Akan tetapi, kondisi di pasar obligasi developed market lebih positif kemarin yang ditandai kenaikan indeks S&P obligasi negara-negara maju sebesar 0.4% dan turunnya yield UST serta Bund 10Y masing-masing sebesar -4 dan -10 bps menjadi 3.72% dan 2.41%. Menurut kami, kenaikan ini disebabkan oleh rilis indeks harga  mobil bekas Manheim yang turun -3.2% mom. Pasar optimis penurunan ini dapat membuat the Fed mengurungkan niat menaikkan suku bunga pada bulan Juli. Kami memperkirakan yield INDOGB 10Y masih akan cenderung bergerak sideways hari ini di rentang 6.3-4%. Sementara itu, nilai tukar Rupiah masih akan tertekan dalam rentang IDR 14,950-15,050 per USD.

Fixed Income News: Jumlah penawaran masuk lelang SBSN menurun menjadi IDR 41.4tn (6/6: IDR 60tn). Penurunan ini tidak sesuai dengan ekspektasi kami. Menurut kami, hal ini disebabkan oleh kenaikan suku bunga terminal the Fed yang diumumkan pada Rabu lalu (14/6) sebesar 50 bps menjadi 5.675%. Meskipun nilai penawaran masuk turun, besaran obligasi SBSN baru yang diterbitkan tetap sebesar IDR 7tn dengan alokasi terbesar untuk tenor 16-tahun (PBS034) dan tenor 24-tahun (PBS033) masing-masing senilai IDR 3tn dan IDR 2.1tn. (DJPPR)

Global Economic News: PBOC turunkan suku bunga acuan pinjaman utama 1Y dan 5Y sebesar -10 bps masing-masing menjadi 3.55% dan 4.2%. Penurunan ini menjadi bagian dari program stimulus moneter yang dimulai sejak awal Juni. Menurut kami, penurunan ini tidaklah cukup untuk menstimulasi perekonomian Tiongkok. Kami memperkirakan Bank Sentral Tiongkok masih akan melakukan pemangkasan suku bunga lanjutan paling sedikit 2X10 bps lagi masing-masing pada 3Q23 dan 4Q23. (Caixin Global)

Domestic Economic News: LPS akan mengenakan premi restrukturisasi perbankan mulai 2025. Pengenaan premi baru ini diatur dalam Peraturan Pemerintah No. 34/2023. Besaran premi yang dikenakan adalah sebesar 0.0035% untuk bank dengan aset lebih dari IDR 100tn dan 0.003% untuk bank dengan aset IDR 50-100tn. Pembayaran premi dilakukan dua kali setahun mulai 2025 dengan besaran persentase premi dikalikan dengan aset bank. Jumlah premi yang dikumpulkan LPS dalam setahun diprediksi akan mencapai IDR 1tn. (Kontan)

Recommendation: FR0067, FR0076, FR0089, FR0081, FR0040, FR0084, FR0086, PBS017.

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Samuel's Daily Macro and Fixed Income Report 21 Juni 2023 (Ind)
Samuel's Daily Macro and Fixed Income Report 21 Juni 2023 (Eng)

Download PDF

Samuel's Daily Macro and Fixed Income Report 21 Juni 2023 (Ind)
Samuel's Daily Macro and Fixed Income Report 21 Juni 2023 (Eng)

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