Research & Stock Picks

Daily Report

28 July 2023

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Pasar Amerika Utara take profit, pasar Eropa euforia

Pergerakan pasar global mengalami divergensi semalam (27/7) akibat perbedaan prospek ekonomi makro Amerika Serikat dengan Eropa. Pengumuman dari Bank Sentral Eropa (ECB) mengenai kemungkinan dihentikannya kenaikan suku bunga acuan bulan September (lihat global economic news) memicu aksi beli baik di pasar saham maupun obligasi Eropa. Sebaliknya, rilis pertumbuhan PDB AS untuk 2Q23 yang lebih baik dari konsensus, yang disertai penurunan angka initial jobless claims menjadi 221,000 (prev: 228,000) memicu aksi jual di pasar saham dan obligasi AS. Imbal hasil (yield) UST naik 13 bps menjadi 4%. Sementara itu, indeks dolar AS naik 0.9% menjadi 101.8. Ada kemungkinan selloff di pasar AS hanya sekedar take profit karena kami tidak melihat perubahan ekspektasi terhadap potensi kenaikan suku bunga Fed kedua di bulan September ataupun November. Menurut kami, saat ini pasar masih menunggu rilis data inflasi PCE AS nanti malam untuk menentukan tren di masa mendatang. Kami memperkirakan yield INDOGB 10Y akan bergerak sideways dalam rentang 6.2-6.3% hari ini. Sedangkan, Rupiah bisa terdepresiasi ke rentang IDR 15,000-15,100 per USD akibat penguatan indeks dolar.

Fixed Income News: Pembelian kembali (buyback) obligasi global SAKA sudah mencapai USD 220mn per tanggal (21/7). Aksi buyback masih akan dilanjutkan hingga tanggal (2/8) atas obligasi global yang diterbitkan pada tahun 2017 dengan total nilai USD 625mn. Aksi buyback yang dilakukan oleh PT Saka Energi Indonesia (SAKA), yang merupakan anak usaha PT Perusahaan Gas Negara (PGAS), sudah dilaksanakan sejak 2022 dengan total buyback saat itu mencapai USD 248.7mn. Sisa obligasi yang masih beredar sekarang adalah senilai USD 156.3mn. (Emitennews)

Global Economic News: ECB naikkan suku bunga acuan sesuai consensus sebesar 25 bps menjadi 4.25% (Jun: 4%). Selain itu, suku bunga fasilitas deposito dan pinjaman juga naik sebesar 25 bps menjadi masing-masing 3.75% dan 4.5%. Dalam sesi wawancara, Presiden Bank Sentral Eropa (ECB) Christine Lagarde membuka peluang untuk menahan kenaikan suku bunga di pertemuan berikutnya pada bulan September. Menurut kami, pengumuman Lagarde merupakan berita positif bagi pasar global. (Investing)

Domestic Economic News: Pertumbuhan suplai uang beredar M2 bulan Juni bertahan di 6.1% yoy. Sedangkan, pertumbuhan suplai uang beredar M1 naik menjadi 5.4% yoy (May: 5.2% yoy) akibat naiknya pertumbuhan uang kartal (M0) menjadi 7.9% yoy (May: 4.8% yoy). Sedangkan jumlah pertumbuhan deposit pihak ketiga turun menjadi 6.4% yoy (May: 6.9% yoy). (Bank Indonesia)

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Samuel's Daily Macro and Fixed Income Report 28 Juli 2023 (Ind)
Samuel's Daily Macro and Fixed Income Report 28 Juli 2023 (Eng)

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Samuel's Daily Macro and Fixed Income Report 28 Juli 2023 (Ind)
Samuel's Daily Macro and Fixed Income Report 28 Juli 2023 (Eng)

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