Research & Stock Picks

Daily Report

24 August 2023

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Obligasi global naik akibat kontraksi PMI Jasa Eropa

Sentimen pasar bergeser menjadi positif setelah rilis data PMI tadi malam (23/8) yang menunjukkan tanda-tanda resesi di Eropa semakin kuat karena kontraksi PMI jasa (lihat global economic news). Akibat perubahan sentiment ini, indeks-indeks obligasi tercatat naik masing-masing 0.6% untuk indeks S&P developed market dan 0.8% untuk indeks EMBI emerging markets. Sementara itu, imbal hasil (yield) 10Y UST dan Bund turun -13 bps menjadi masing-masing 4.19% dan 2.52%. Menurut kami, rebound kuat di pasar obligasi global semalam akan berdampak positif pada pasar obligasi domestik yang sudah mengalami rebound kemarin. Rebound pasar obligasi domestik tercermin dari penurunan yield 10Y INDOGB dan INDON masing-masing sebesar -6 bps menjadi 6.61% dan -9 bps menjadi 5.25%. Sayangnya, yield 2Y INDOGB naik 5 bps menjadi 6.24% akibat operation twist yang dilakukan oleh Bank Indonesia untuk memperkuat Rupiah menjadi IDR 15,295 per USD kemarin. Kami memperkirakan yield 10Y INDOGB dan Rupiah akan menguat hari ini dalam rentang masing-masing 6.5-6.6% dan IDR 15,200-15,300 per USD.

Fixed Income News: Obligasi Indonesia satu-satunya yang memiliki sensitivitas negatif terhadap pergerakan UST. Hal ini disampaikan oleh Bloomberg dalam laporan mengenai performa obligasi emerging market global. Secara umum, obligasi emerging market Asia memiliki sensitivitas di bawah 0.2 terhadap pergerakan UST. Obligasi emerging market di Eropa, Timur Tengah, dan Afrika memiliki rata-rata sensitivitas 0.32. Sementara itu, level sensitivitas obligasi emerging market Amerika Latin adalah yang tertinggi (0.36). Menurut kami, informasi ini merupakan hal positif bagi obligasi domestik. (Bloomberg)

Global Economic News: Sektor jasa Eropa mulai alami kontraksi di bulan Agustus. Hal ini tercermin dari indeks PMI jasa zona Euro dan Britania Raya (UK) yang masing-masing turun menjadi 48.3 (Jul: 50.9; Cons: 50.5) dan 48.7 (Jul: 51.5; Cons: 51). Sedangkan, PMI Jasa di Amerika Serikat masih berada di zona ekspansi walaupun turun menjadi 51 (Jul: 52.3; Cons: 52.3). PMI manufaktur AS, UK, dan zona Euro berada di zona kontraksi dengan nilai masing-masing 47 (Jul: 49; Cons: 49.3), 48.7 (Jul: 51.5; Cons: 51), dan 43.7 (Jul: 42.7; Cons: 42.6). Kami menyambut baik hasil ini karena akan memperlemah argumen ‘holding rates higher for longer’ yang semakin marak di pasar. (Reuters)

Domestic Economic News: Gapki perkirakan dampak El Nino 2023 lebih baik daripada El Nino 2015 dan 2019. Hal ini didasarkan pada prediksi cuaca BMKG yang memperkirakan El Nino terjadi di bulan Agustus hingga Oktober. Selain itu, Gapki telah menyiapkan sejumlah langkah antisipatif, termasuk pemupukan lebih awal untuk mencegah penurunan produksi yang tajam seperti pada peristiwa El Nino 2015 dan 2019. Berita ini merupakan dukungan bagi proyeksi inflasi harga pangan kami di 1-4% untuk tahun ini. (Kontan)

Recommendation: FR0040, FR0056, FR0084, FR0086, FR0090, PBS032, PBS036.

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Samuel's Daily Macro and Fixed Income Report 24 Agustus 2023 (Ind)
Samuel's Daily Macro and Fixed Income Report 24 Agustus 2023 (Eng)

Download PDF

Samuel's Daily Macro and Fixed Income Report 24 Agustus 2023 (Ind)
Samuel's Daily Macro and Fixed Income Report 24 Agustus 2023 (Eng)

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