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15 August 2023

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Obligasi emerging market tertekan gagal bayar obligasi sektor properti Tiongkok

Obligasi emerging market tertekan gagal bayar obligasi sektor properti Tiongkok

Gagal bayar obligasi korporasi Country Garden telah menjalar ke sektor keuangan Tiongkok dengan salah satu yang terdampak adalah perusahaan manajemen aset Zhongzhi Group (AUM: RMB 1tn/USD 137.8bn) yang menyetop pencairan investasi untuk seluruh nasabah mereka (lihat global economic news). Akibat peristiwa ini, indeks obligasi EMBI untuk emerging market turun -0.6%. Indeks IDMA domestik juga turun -0.2%. Imbal hasil (yield) INDOGB 10Y dan 5Y meningkat masing-masing sebesar 5 dan 4 bps menjadi 6.39% dan 6.09%. Yield INDON naik untuk semua tenor sebesar 9 bps menjadi 5.07% (10Y) dan 5.08% (5Y) dan 4 bps menjadi 5.32% (2Y). Sementara itu, Rupiah terdepresiasi tajam sebesar 0.7% menjadi IDR 15,315 per USD. Depresiasi CNY hanya tercatat 0.2% menjadi CNY 7.26 per USD, diperkirakan karena intervensi dari Bank Sentral Tiongkok (PBOC). Kami memprediksi aksi jual obligasi emerging market masih akan berlanjut hari ini. Kami memperkirakan yield 10Y INDOGB akan tertekan menuju rentang 6.4-6.5% hari ini, diikuti depresiasi nilai tukar Rupiah menuju rentang IDR 15,300-400 per USD.

Fixed Income News: Kementerian Keuangan akan laksanakan lelang SBSN dengan target IDR 6tn hari ini. Lelang SBSN hari ini dibayang-bayangi aksi jual terhadap obligasi emerging market akibat gagal bayar obligasi korporasi di Tiongkok. Berkaca pada jumlah penawaran masuk lelang sebelumnya (SBSN 2/8: IDR 22.1tn; SUN 8/8: IDR 32.5tn), kami memprediksi tingkat permintaan lelang SBSN hari ini di kisaran IDR 22-27tn. (DJPPR)

Global Economic News: Tiongkok hadapi krisis gagal bayar pengembang properti Country Garden dan manajemen aset Zhongzhi Group. Peristiwa ini diawali dengan penghentian perdagangan 11 obligasi onshore Country Garden di Shanghai pada Sabtu lalu (12/8), yang diikuti dengan keputusan Zhongzhi Group untuk menyetop seluruh permintaan pencairan investasi dari nasabah mereka kemarin (14/8). Country Garden memiliki total utang senilai RMB 1.4tn (USD 192.9bn) dalam bentuk 47% kepada pembeli rumah yang konstruksinya masih belum selesai, 30% kepada pemasok, dan 19% kepada institusi finansial. Zhongzhi Group memiliki asset under management (AUM) senilai RMB 1tn (USD 137.8bn). (Caixin)

Domestic Economic News: PT Pertamina Gas Negara akan naikkan harga jual gas mulai bulan Oktober. Kenaikan tersebut terdiri atas 29.8% menjadi USD 11.9 per MMBtu untuk kategori Gold, 22.5% menjadi USD 12 untuk kategori Silver, 34.3% menjadi USD 12.3 untuk kategori Bronze 3, 36% menjadi USD 12.5 untuk kategori Bronze 2 serta 66% menjadi IDR 10,000 per meter kubik untuk kategori Bronze 1 mulai 1 Januari 2024. Kenaikan harga gas ini akan menaikkan kembali inflasi PPI di 3Q23, yang sempat turun menjadi 1.56% yoy pada 2Q23 (1Q23: 6.76% yoy). (Kemenkeu)

Recommendation: FR0037, FR0040, FR0056, FR0084, FR0086, FR0090, PBS032, PBS036.

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