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Daily Report

31 August 2023

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Momentum speculative buy 2Y INDOGB

Sesuai dengan prediksi kami, penurunan imbal hasil (yield) 10Y INDOGB sulit untuk berlanjut karena penurunan tersebut diikuti dengan yield spread INDOGB 10Y Vs. 2Y yang semakin menipis. Meskipun posisi kurva yield INDOGB semakin menuju ke pola flattening, optimisme investor asing terhadap prospek pasar obligasi dalam negeri tetap terjaga. Hal ini tercermin dari penurunan yield INDON untuk seluruh tenor baik 2Y (-3 bps menjadi 5.22%), 5Y (-5 bps menjadi 5.22%), maupun 10Y (-5 bps menjadi 5.46%). Optimisme ini menjalar ke INDOGB tenor pendek (2Y) kemarin yang tercermin dari penurunan yield 2Y INDOGB sebesar -3 bps menjadi 6.31% dan selanjutnya memperlebar yield spread INDOGB 10Y Vs. 2Y menjadi 6 bps (30/8: 4 bps). Walaupun selisih yield spread INDOGB 10Y Vs. 2Y masih jauh dari ideal, kami melihat potensi rebound ini berlanjut, bila rilis data inflasi PCE AS nanti malam dan pasar tenaga kerja AS besok malam sesuai dengan konsensus atau bahkan lebih baik. Mempertimbangkan hal ini, kami merekomendasikan speculative buy atas 2Y INDOGB dengan potensi upside menuju ke floor limit di JIBOR 1W (0.5±6%). Kami memperkirakan yield 10Y INDOGB masih akan terkonsolidasi di 6.35-6.45% hari ini. Rupiah berpotensi melanjutkan apresiasi ke rentang 15,150-15,250 per USD akibat pelemahan indeks dolar -0.4% menjadi 103.2 semalam.

Fixed Income News: PYFA berencana terbitkan Obligasi Berkelanjutan I Tahap II Tahun 2023 untuk kebutuhan refinancing. PT Pyridam Farma menargetkan perolehan dana IDR 400bn dari penerbitan obligasi ini. Secara keseluruhan, PYFA menargetkan perolehan dana sebesar IDR 1.2tn dari Obligasi Berkelanjutan I. Dari penerbitan obligasi Tahap I, PYFA telah memperoleh dana sebesar IDR 400bn. Obligasi Tahap II PYFA menawarkan kupon bunga 9.5% per tahun dengan tenor 2 tahun serta masa jatuh tempo 15 September 2025. Masa penawaran umum obligasi ini berlangsung pada 11-12 September. (Emitennews)

Global Economic News: Pertumbuhan PDB 2Q23 AS direvisi turun menjadi 2.1% SAAR QoQ (Prev: 2.4% SAAR QoQ). Walaupun momentum pertumbuhan ekonomi 2Q23 lebih lemah daripada ekspektasi awal, para ekonom memperkirakan momentum pertumbuhan ekonomi Amerika Serikat masih akan tetap kuat di 3Q23. Sehingga, potensi terjadinya soft landing (penurunan inflasi tanpa resesi) masih cukup tinggi. Indeks inflasi PCE kuartalan AS untuk 2Q23 juga direvisi turun menjadi 3.7% yoy (Prev: 3.8% yoy). (Reuters)

Domestic Economic News: Pertumbuhan uang beredar M2 naik tipis di bulan Juli menjadi 6.4% yoy (Jun: 6.1% yoy). Kenaikan ini dipicu oleh meningkatnya pertumbuhan suplai uang beredar M1 yang terdiri atas tabungan, uang elektronik, dan uang kartal (tunai) menjadi 6.2% yoy (Jun: 5.4% yoy). Sedangkan, pertumbuhan uang kuartal turun tajam menjadi 3.8% yoy (Jun: 7.9% yoy). (Bank Indonesia)

Recommendation: FR0040, FR0056, FR0081, FR0084, FR0086, FR0096, FR0097, FR0098.

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Samuel's Daily Macro and Fixed Income Report 31 Agustus 2023 (Eng)
Samuel's Daily Macro and Fixed Income Report 31 Agustus 2023 (Ind)

Download PDF

Samuel's Daily Macro and Fixed Income Report 31 Agustus 2023 (Eng)
Samuel's Daily Macro and Fixed Income Report 31 Agustus 2023 (Ind)

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