Research & Stock Picks

Daily Report

03 May 2023

By

Macro Weekly Strategy

  • Performa pasar obligasi Indonesia cenderung stagnan setelah libur Lebaran, tapi IHSG dalam sentimen positif meskipun pasar komoditas global tengah tertekan
  • Kelanjutan aksi beli investor asing di pasar obligasi dibutuhkan untuk menampung aksi jual yang dilakukan oleh sektor perbankan terutama sejak bulan April
  • Potensi arus modal keluar dari Pasar AS tinggi karena kondisi perekonomian AS yang sudah semakin dekat menuju resesi
  • Resesi perekonomian AS diperlukan untuk kelanjutan proses disinflasi AS yang tertahan oleh stagnasi inflasi inti
  • Menghadapi kemungkinan resesi, pasar memperkirakan kenaikan terakhir (dovish hike) sebesar 25 bps menjadi 5.25% di bulan Mei
  • Walaupun aktivitas perekonomian di Eropa mulai menunjukkan tanda-tanda pemulihan, potensi masuknya aliran dana dari AS ke Eropa terbatas
  • Walaupun pertumbuhan PDB Tiongkok membaik di 1Q23, pelemahan aktivitas manufaktur di bulan April menimbulkan keraguan atas prospek ekonomi Tiongkok

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Macro Strategy Weekly 2023-05-02 (Eng)
Macro Strategy Weekly 2023-05-02 (Ind)

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Macro Strategy Weekly 2023-05-02 (Eng)
Macro Strategy Weekly 2023-05-02 (Ind)

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