Research & Stock Picks

Daily Report

11 September 2023

By

Macro Strategy and Fixed Income Weekly

Kami memperkirakan volatilitas di pasar global masih akan tinggi akibat kemungkinan terjadinya reflasi di Amerika Serikat pada bulan Agustus.

  • Reflasi tersebut disebabkan oleh kenaikan harga-harga barang berfluktuasi, terutama energi, dengan laju inflasi bulanan naik menjadi 0.5% mom (Jul: 0.2% mom).
  • Akan tetapi, pasar memperkirakan reflasi tidak akan berdampak terhadap inflasi inti dengan laju inflasi bulanan tetap di 0.2% mom.
  • Apabila terjadi kenaikan laju inflasi inti bulanan, maka The Fed akan semakin kencang menggaungkan retorika mereka mengenai diperlukannya kenaikan suku bunga FFR terkahir sebesar 25 bps menjadi 5.75%.
  • Kami menduga hal ini yang akan menjadi sumber dari volatilitas global minggu ini, bersama dengan kemungkinan depresiasi CNY lanjutan.

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Macro Strategy Weekly 2023-09-11 (Eng)
Macro Strategy Weekly 2023-09-11 (Ind)

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Macro Strategy Weekly 2023-09-11 (Eng)
Macro Strategy Weekly 2023-09-11 (Ind)

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