Research & Stock Picks

Economic & Fixed Income

04 September 2023

By

Macro Strategy and Fixed Income Weekly

Last Week’s Recap August 28 – September 3,2023:

Global Macro Fundamentals

We expect global stock and bond markets to continue their rebound this week, after the release of US inflation and labor market data

  • We believe that another Fed rate hike in 4Q23 is highly unlikely, given the slowdown in labor market expansion and ongoing disinflation.
  • Even so, we still need more labor market data to determine whether the Fed's rate cut cycle will kick off in 2Q24 (May 2024), 3Q24 (July 2024) or 1Q24 (March 2024) .
  • However, emerging market players still have to wait for the release of China's CPI and PPI inflation data this week (China is currently trapped in a deflationary spiral).

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Macro Strategy Weekly 2023-09-04 (Ind)
Macro Strategy Weekly 2023-09-04 (Eng)

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Macro Strategy Weekly 2023-09-04 (Ind)
Macro Strategy Weekly 2023-09-04 (Eng)

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