Research & Stock Picks

Daily Report

28 August 2023

By

Macro Strategy and Fixed Income Weekly

Global Macroeconomic Fundamentals

We expect global markets to remain under pressure over the next couple of weeks, due to changes in market expectations following Powell's hawkish Jackson Hole speech.

  • We notice that market players are divided into two Fed rate scenarios: a) the Fed will raise its FFR by 25 bps to 5.75% in 4Q23, which will trigger an economic recession, which will prompt the Fed so start its rate cut in 1Q24 (Scenario 1), b) the Fed will keep its FFR at 5.5% and start its rate cut in June 2024 (Scenario 2).
  • At the moment, more people believe that Scenario 1 will happen. However, it will depend on the PCE inflation data for July, which will be released on Thursday (8/31) and the US labor market data for August, which will be released on Friday (9/1).
  • We believe that global markets will remain volatile and turbulent next week, as both sides continue to form their expectations.

 

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Macro Strategy Weekly 2023-08-28 (Eng)
Macro Strategy Weekly 2023-08-28 (Ind)

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Macro Strategy Weekly 2023-08-28 (Eng)
Macro Strategy Weekly 2023-08-28 (Ind)

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