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Daily Report

21 December 2023

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Macro Strategy and Fixed Income Outlook 2024 – Global Dovish Pivot Euphoria

Global Macro: The Fed & ECB’s Dovish Pivot

What’s Our View?

In our opinion, market players’ strong expectations of a dovish pivot in 1Q24 is nothing but a mere speculation, and it might lead to major volatility

  • Expectations of a Fed dovish pivot in 1Q24 remain relatively intact, even though US labor market unexpectedly strengthened in November and disinflation momentum somewhat slowed down due to persistent expansion in the services sector.
  • The dovish pivot euphoria, that originated from the United States (The Fed), has spread to the Eurozone (ECB) due to the increasing probability of global recession, especially in Europe.
  • The strong dovish pivot euphoria might encourage Japan (BoJ) to end its negative interest rate policy in January or February, before the start of the Fed's dovish pivot.
  • However, there is a possibility that the dovish pivot might not occur in 1Q24, especially if monthly core PCE inflation remains relatively strong in 2024 (averaging at 0.2% mom or higher). This might lead to trigger major volatility in global financial markets

 

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Macro Strategy & Fixed Income Outlook 2024 - 2023-12-21 (Eng)
Macro Strategy & Fixed Income Outlook 2024 - 2023-12-21 (Ind)

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Macro Strategy & Fixed Income Outlook 2024 - 2023-12-21 (Eng)
Macro Strategy & Fixed Income Outlook 2024 - 2023-12-21 (Ind)

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