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27 July 2023

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Macro Strategy and Fixed Income Juli 2023 Tabir penghalang bullish rally obligasi: Mismatch suku bunga Vs. Inflasi

Fundamental Makro Global

Pandangan Kami:

Penurunan inflasi inti CPI AS pada bulan Juni yang lebih rendah dari konsensus membuka peluang bagi para bank sentral di Asia untuk memulai rate cuts cycle lebih awal

  • Kami mengubah skenario utama kami dari no rate hike menjadi 1X25 bps hike.
  • Meskipun ada upside risk kenaikan suku bunga terminal Fed kedua di 4Q23, kami melihat kemungkinan tersebut kecil karena deselerasi inflasi inti CPI AS yang cukup tajam pada bulan Juni.
  • Menurut kami, pemulihan ekonomi di Tiongkok yang rentan akan memicu percepatan rate cuts cycle oleh PBOC yang akan memicu rate cuts di Asia Timur dan Tenggara.
  • Kami juga melihat potensi intervensi PBOC untuk menjaga kestabilan USD/CNY di rentang CNY 7-7.3 per USD yang akan menjadi katalis positif bagi stabilitas nilai tukar di Asia Timur maupun Tenggara.

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Macro Strategy & Fixed Income Monthly 2023-07-26 (Ind)
Macro Strategy & Fixed Income Monthly 2023-07-26 (Eng)

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Macro Strategy & Fixed Income Monthly 2023-07-26 (Ind)
Macro Strategy & Fixed Income Monthly 2023-07-26 (Eng)

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