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Daily Report

26 May 2023

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Koreksi pasar obligasi global semakin tajam, underweight INDON

Koreksi di pasar obligasi global semakin tajam tadi malam (26/5) seiring dengan semakin naiknya ekspektasi terhadap kenaikan suku bunga puncak (terminal) the Fed menjadi 5.5%. Hal ini tercermin dari penurunan indeks S&P obligasi negara-negara maju sebesar -0.3%. Imbal hasil (yield) UST dan Bund 10-tahun naik masing-masing sebesar 8 dan 5 bps menjadi 3.82 dan 2.52%. Indeks obligasi negara-negara berkembang juga terdampak, terutama yang berdenominasi USD (iShare EMBI) sebesar -0.2%. Hal yang sama juga terjadi di Indonesia. Yield instrumen INDON naik untuk semua tenor dengan tenor pendek (2-tahun) mengalami kenaikan terbesar 11 bps menjadi 4.84%, diikuti tenor menengah (5-tahun) 8 bps menjadi 4.67% dan tenor panjang (10-tahun) 6 bps menjadi 4.79%. Hal ini menyebabkan kurva yield INDON menjadi inverted. Kami merekomendasikan underweight untuk instrumen INDON. Sedangkan, instrumen INDOGB cenderung kokoh yang tercermin dari pola pergerakan flat. Kami memprediksi yield INDOGB 10-tahun masih akan bergerak flat di rentang 6.4-6.5% hari ini. Sementara itu, Rupiah berpotensi terdepresiasi menuju rentang IDR 14,950-15,050 per USD akibat penguatan indeks dolar 0.4% menjadi 104.3.

Fixed Income News: Pemerintah laksanakan transaksi penerbitan SBN private placement kemarin (25/5). Jumlah dana yang diperoleh dari penerbitan SBN FR0099 dan USDFR0003 ini adalah sebesar USD 259.6bn dan USD 3.2mn. Imbal hasil (yield) yang ditawarkan oleh program ini adalah sebesar 6.15% untuk FR0099 dan 4.43% untuk USDFR0003. (DJPPR)

Global Economic News: Resesi ekonomi Jerman. Ekonomi Jerman jatuh ke dalam resesi setelah mencatat kontraksi PDB pada 1Q23 dan 4Q22 masing masing sebesar -0.3% qoq sa atau -0.2% yoy (Cons 1Q23: -0.1% qoq sa atau 0.2% yoy), dan -0.4% qoq sa atau 0.3% yoy. Resesi ini menimbulkan keraguan para pelaku pasar terhadap proyeksi pertumbuhan PDB pemerintah Jerman yang memprediksi PDB tumbuh 0.4% untuk FY23. Kami melihat resesi ini sebagai hal positif bagi upaya penanggulangan inflasi di zona Euro. (Reuters)

Domestic Economic News: Pemerintah targetkan deficit APBN FY24 2.16-2.64% terhadap PDB. Selain itu, pemerintah memasang target pertumbuhan ekonomi yang ambisius dalam rentang 5.3-5.7%. Sementara itu, target inflasi ditetapkan sebesar1.5-3.5% dan nilai tukar USD/IDR sebesar IDR 14,700-15,300 per USD. Target imbal hasil (yield) INDOGB ditetapkan dalam rentang 6.49-6.91%. (Bisnis Indonesia)

Recommendation: FR0098, FR0050, FR0079, FR0081, FR0040, FR0084, FR0086, PBS017.

 

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Samuel's Daily Macro and Fixed Income Report 26 Mei 2023 (Ind)
Samuel's Daily Macro and Fixed Income Report 26 Mei 2023 (Eng)

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Samuel's Daily Macro and Fixed Income Report 26 Mei 2023 (Ind)
Samuel's Daily Macro and Fixed Income Report 26 Mei 2023 (Eng)

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