Research & Stock Picks

Daily Report

26 May 2023

By

Koreksi pasar obligasi global semakin tajam, underweight INDON

Koreksi di pasar obligasi global semakin tajam tadi malam (26/5) seiring dengan semakin naiknya ekspektasi terhadap kenaikan suku bunga puncak (terminal) the Fed menjadi 5.5%. Hal ini tercermin dari penurunan indeks S&P obligasi negara-negara maju sebesar -0.3%. Imbal hasil (yield) UST dan Bund 10-tahun naik masing-masing sebesar 8 dan 5 bps menjadi 3.82 dan 2.52%. Indeks obligasi negara-negara berkembang juga terdampak, terutama yang berdenominasi USD (iShare EMBI) sebesar -0.2%. Hal yang sama juga terjadi di Indonesia. Yield instrumen INDON naik untuk semua tenor dengan tenor pendek (2-tahun) mengalami kenaikan terbesar 11 bps menjadi 4.84%, diikuti tenor menengah (5-tahun) 8 bps menjadi 4.67% dan tenor panjang (10-tahun) 6 bps menjadi 4.79%. Hal ini menyebabkan kurva yield INDON menjadi inverted. Kami merekomendasikan underweight untuk instrumen INDON. Sedangkan, instrumen INDOGB cenderung kokoh yang tercermin dari pola pergerakan flat. Kami memprediksi yield INDOGB 10-tahun masih akan bergerak flat di rentang 6.4-6.5% hari ini. Sementara itu, Rupiah berpotensi terdepresiasi menuju rentang IDR 14,950-15,050 per USD akibat penguatan indeks dolar 0.4% menjadi 104.3.

Fixed Income News: Pemerintah laksanakan transaksi penerbitan SBN private placement kemarin (25/5). Jumlah dana yang diperoleh dari penerbitan SBN FR0099 dan USDFR0003 ini adalah sebesar USD 259.6bn dan USD 3.2mn. Imbal hasil (yield) yang ditawarkan oleh program ini adalah sebesar 6.15% untuk FR0099 dan 4.43% untuk USDFR0003. (DJPPR)

Global Economic News: Resesi ekonomi Jerman. Ekonomi Jerman jatuh ke dalam resesi setelah mencatat kontraksi PDB pada 1Q23 dan 4Q22 masing masing sebesar -0.3% qoq sa atau -0.2% yoy (Cons 1Q23: -0.1% qoq sa atau 0.2% yoy), dan -0.4% qoq sa atau 0.3% yoy. Resesi ini menimbulkan keraguan para pelaku pasar terhadap proyeksi pertumbuhan PDB pemerintah Jerman yang memprediksi PDB tumbuh 0.4% untuk FY23. Kami melihat resesi ini sebagai hal positif bagi upaya penanggulangan inflasi di zona Euro. (Reuters)

Domestic Economic News: Pemerintah targetkan deficit APBN FY24 2.16-2.64% terhadap PDB. Selain itu, pemerintah memasang target pertumbuhan ekonomi yang ambisius dalam rentang 5.3-5.7%. Sementara itu, target inflasi ditetapkan sebesar1.5-3.5% dan nilai tukar USD/IDR sebesar IDR 14,700-15,300 per USD. Target imbal hasil (yield) INDOGB ditetapkan dalam rentang 6.49-6.91%. (Bisnis Indonesia)

Recommendation: FR0098, FR0050, FR0079, FR0081, FR0040, FR0084, FR0086, PBS017.

 

Share This:

Highlights

Download PDF

Download PDF

Samuel's Daily Macro and Fixed Income Report 26 Mei 2023 (Ind)
Samuel's Daily Macro and Fixed Income Report 26 Mei 2023 (Eng)

Download PDF

Samuel's Daily Macro and Fixed Income Report 26 Mei 2023 (Ind)
Samuel's Daily Macro and Fixed Income Report 26 Mei 2023 (Eng)

More Related

Daily Stock Technical Recommendations

Mar 19, 2024

Daily Stock Technical – 19 Mar 2024

Daily Stock Technical Recommendations

Mar 18, 2024

Daily Stock Technical – 18 Mar 2024

Daily Report

Mar 18, 2024

IHSG Berpotensi Melemah Hari Ini

Daily Stock Technical Recommendations

Mar 15, 2024

Samuel Daily Stock Technical – 15 Mar 2024

Daily Stock Technical Recommendations

Mar 14, 2024

Samuel Daily Stock Technical – 14 Mar 2024

Daily Report

Mar 14, 2024

IHSG Berpotensi Sideways Hari Ini

Daily Stock Technical Recommendations

Mar 13, 2024

Daily Stock Technical – 13 Mar 2024

Daily Report

Mar 13, 2024

IHSG Berpotensi Melanjutkan Penguatan Hari Ini

Daily Report

Mar 8, 2024

IHSG Berpotensi Menguat

Emiten Report

Mar 7, 2024

PGAS: BUY (Maintained), TP at 1,300 – Moderating Outlook

Daily Report

Mar 7, 2024

IHSG Berpotensi Akan Melanjutkan Penguatan

Daily Stock Technical Recommendations

Mar 7, 2024

Daily Stock Technical – 07 Mar 2024

Daily Report

Mar 6, 2024

IHSG Berpotensi Bergerak Melemah

Daily Stock Technical Recommendations

Mar 6, 2024

Daily Stock Technical – 06 Mar 2024

Daily Stock Technical Recommendations

Mar 5, 2024

Daily Stock Technical – 05 Mar 2024

Daily Report

Mar 4, 2024

IHSG Berpotensi Menguat

Daily Report

Mar 1, 2024

IHSG Berpotensi Menguat

Emiten Report

Feb 29, 2024

Automotive Sector – IIMS 2024: EV Steals the Show

Daily Report

Feb 29, 2024

IHSG Berpotensi Bergerak Melemah

Daily Report

Feb 28, 2024

JCI is Expected to Go Sideways Today

Emiten Report

Feb 27, 2024

NCKL: BUY (Maintained), TP at 1,200 (from 1,500) – More Clarity on the Upcoming Corporate Action

Daily Stock Technical Recommendations

Feb 27, 2024

Daily Stock Technical – 27 Feb 2024

Daily Report

Feb 26, 2024

IHSG Berpotensi Menguat Hari Ini

Daily Stock Technical Recommendations

Feb 26, 2024

Daily Stock Technical – 26 Feb 2024

Daily Stock Technical Recommendations

Feb 23, 2024

Daily Stock Technical – 23 Feb 2024

Daily Report

Feb 23, 2024

IHSG Berpotensi Menguat

Daily Stock Technical Recommendations

Feb 22, 2024

Daily Stock Technical – 22 Feb 2024

Daily Report

Feb 22, 2024

IHSG Berpotensi Bergerak Menguat

Daily Stock Technical Recommendations

Feb 21, 2024

Daily Stock Technical – 21 Feb 2024

Daily Report

Feb 21, 2024

IHSG Berpotensi Melemah Hari Ini

Emiten Report

Feb 20, 2024

Strategy Report: 2024 Elections – What’s Next?

Daily Stock Technical Recommendations

Feb 20, 2024

Daily Stock Technical – 20 Feb 2024

Emiten Report

Feb 19, 2024

BBRI: BUY (Maintain), TP at 6,800 – Higher earning-assets portfolio to support NIM

Daily Report

Feb 19, 2024

IHSG Berpotensi Sideways Hari Ini

Daily Stock Technical Recommendations

Feb 19, 2024

Daily Stock Technical – 19 Feb 2024

Daily Report

Feb 16, 2024

IHSG Berpotensi Menguat

Daily Stock Technical Recommendations

Feb 13, 2024

Daily Stock Technical – 13 Feb 2024

Daily Report

Feb 13, 2024

IHSG Berpotensi Bergerak Menguat

Daily Stock Technical Recommendations

Feb 12, 2024

Daily Stock Technical – 12 Feb 2024

Daily Report

Feb 12, 2024

IHSG Berpotensi Menguat

Daily Stock Technical Recommendations

Feb 7, 2024

Daily Stock Technical – 07 Feb 2024

Daily Report

Feb 7, 2024

IHSG Berpotensi Sideways

Daily Stock Technical Recommendations

Feb 6, 2024

Daily Stock Technical – 06 Feb 2024

Emiten Report

Feb 5, 2024

BBNI: BUY (Maintain), TP at 6,600 – Fundamental improvement in risk profile

Emiten Report

Feb 5, 2024

BBCA: BUY (Maintain), TP at 10,800 – Conservative During Election Year

Daily Report

Feb 5, 2024

IHSG Berpotensi Sideways

Daily Report

Feb 2, 2024

IHSG Berpotensi Menguat

Daily Stock Technical Recommendations

Feb 2, 2024

Daily Stock Technical – 02 Feb 2024

Daily Stock Technical Recommendations

Feb 1, 2024

Daily Stock Technical – 01 Feb 2024

Daily Report

Feb 1, 2024

IHSG Berpotensi Bergerak Melemah

Daily Stock Technical Recommendations

Jan 31, 2024

Daily Stock Technical – 31 Jan 2024

Daily Report

Jan 31, 2024

IHSG Berpotensi Melemah

Daily Stock Technical Recommendations

Jan 30, 2024

Daily Stock Technical – 30 Jan 2024

Emiten Report

Jan 29, 2024

RAJA: BUY (Maintain), TP at 2,200 – Long Live the King!

Daily Stock Technical Recommendations

Jan 29, 2024

Daily Stock Technical – 29 Jan 2024

Daily Report

Jan 29, 2024

IHSG Berpotensi Menguat

Daily Stock Technical Recommendations

Jan 26, 2024

Daily Stock Technical – 26 Jan 2024

Daily Report

Jan 26, 2024

IHSG Berpotensi Melemah

Daily Stock Technical Recommendations

Jan 25, 2024

Daily Stock Technical – 25 Jan 2024

Daily Report

Jan 25, 2024

IHSG Berpotensi Bergerak Sideways

Daily Stock Technical Recommendations

Jan 24, 2024

Daily Stock Technical – 24 Jan 2024

Daily Report

Jan 24, 2024

IHSG Berpotensi Melemah

Daily Stock Technical Recommendations

Jan 23, 2024

Daily Stock Technical – 23 Jan 2024

Daily Stock Technical Recommendations

Jan 22, 2024

Daily Stock Technical – 22 Jan 2024

Daily Report

Jan 22, 2024

IHSG Berpotensi Menguat

Daily Stock Technical Recommendations

Jan 19, 2024

Daily Stock Technical – 19 Jan 2024

Daily Stock Technical Recommendations

Jan 18, 2024

Daily Stock Technical – 18 Jan 2024

Daily Stock Technical Recommendations

Jan 17, 2024

Daily Stock Technical – 17 Jan 2024

Daily Stock Technical Recommendations

Jan 16, 2024

Daily Stock Technical – 16 Jan 2024

Daily Stock Technical Recommendations

Jan 15, 2024

Daily Stock Technical – 15 Jan 2024

Daily Stock Technical Recommendations

Dec 29, 2023

Daily Stock Technical – 29 December 2023

Daily Report

Dec 29, 2023

IHSG Berpotensi Melemah

Daily Stock Technical Recommendations

Dec 28, 2023

Daily Stock Technical – 28 December 2023

Daily Report

Dec 28, 2023

IHSG Berpotensi Sideways

Daily Stock Technical Recommendations

Dec 27, 2023

Daily Stock Technical – 27 December 2023 (window dressing)

Daily Report

Dec 27, 2023

IHSG Berpotensi Melanjutkan Penguatan

Daily Stock Technical Recommendations

Dec 22, 2023

Daily Stock Technical – 22 December 2023

Daily Report

Dec 22, 2023

IHSG Berpotensi Menguat

Daily Report

Dec 21, 2023

BI pertahankan suku bunga acuan pada bulan Desember di tengah euforia dovish pivot

Daily Report

Dec 21, 2023

Macro Strategy and Fixed Income Outlook 2024 – Global Dovish Pivot Euphoria

Daily Report

Dec 21, 2023

Waspadai batas resisten teknikal yield 10Y UST di 3.8%

Daily Stock Technical Recommendations

Dec 21, 2023

Daily Stock Technical – 21 December 2023

Daily Report

Dec 21, 2023

IHSG Berpotensi Bergerak Melemah

Daily Report

Dec 20, 2023

Market players are disappointed with the BoJ’s policy

Daily Stock Technical Recommendations

Dec 20, 2023

Daily Stock Technical – 20 December 2023

Daily Report

Dec 20, 2023

IHSG Berpotensi Melanjutkan Penguatan Hari Ini

Daily Report

Dec 19, 2023

Waspadai overbought instrumen INDOGB dan INDON

Daily Report

Dec 19, 2023

IHSG Berpotensi Bergerak Sideways

Daily Stock Technical Recommendations

Dec 19, 2023

Daily Stock Technical – 19 December 2023

Daily Report

Dec 18, 2023

Euforia dovish pivot The Fed meluas ke ECB

Daily Report

Dec 18, 2023

Surplus neraca dagang November menipis akibat meningkatnya impor menjelang libur akhir tahun

Daily Report

Dec 18, 2023

IHSG Berpotensi Sideways

Daily Stock Technical Recommendations

Dec 18, 2023

Daily Stock Technical – 18 December 2023

Emiten Report

Dec 15, 2023

Automotive Sector – Overweight – 11M23 Auto Sales

Daily Stock Technical Recommendations

Dec 15, 2023

Daily Stock Technical – 15 December 2023

Daily Report

Dec 15, 2023

Euforia dovish pivot global berlanjut

Daily Report

Dec 15, 2023

IHSG Berpotensi Menguat

Emiten Report

Dec 14, 2023

Cement Sector: 11M23 Cement Sales

Emiten Report

Dec 14, 2023

Strategy report – 2024 Market Outlook