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Daily Report

25 July 2023

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INDON 2Y menjadi pilihan investor menghadapi potensi soft recession pada 2H23

Pasar global menyambut positif potensi terjadinya soft recession di negara-negara maju pada 2H23. Berdasarkan rilis data PMI semalam, pelemahan aktivitas sektor manufaktur terus berlanjut. Sedangkan, ekspansi sektor jasa berlanjut walaupun dengan laju yang melambat (lihat global economic news). Akibatnya, indeks harga komoditas S&P-Goldman Sachs global naik 2.6%. Indeks-indeks saham AS juga ikut naik di kisaran 0.2-0.5%. Sementara itu, sinyal di pasar obligasi cenderung mixed, yang terlihat dari naiknya imbal hasil (yield) UST 10Y sebesar 4 bps menjadi 3.87% walaupun yield Bund 10Y turun sebesar -4 bps menjadi 2.43%. Kami melihat pasar INDON bisa terdampak positif dari potensi soft recession, terutama untuk tenor 2Y yang mencatat penurunan yield sebesar -9 bps menjadi 5.3%. Kami memprediksi yield INDOGB 10Y dan Rupiah masih akan bergerak flat hari ini di rentang masing-masing 6.2-6.3% dan IDR 15,000-15,100 per USD.

Fixed Income News: Kementerian Keuangan akan laksanakan lelang SUN hari ini dengan target indikatif IDR 14tn. Dengan mempertimbangkan kenaikan jumlah penawaran masuk pada lelang SUN terakhir (11/7) menjadi IDR 47.8tn (27/6: IDR 37.6tn), kami memprediksi tingkat permintaan pada lelang SUN hari ini (25/7) akan berada pada kisaran IDR 50-55tn. Akan tetapi, kami menyadari ada risiko penurunan tingkat permintaan seperti pada lelang SBSN yang lalu (18/7) menjadi IDR 24.3tn (4/7: IDR 34tn) akibat anomali yield INDOGB 10Y yang saat ini lebih rendah dari floor suku bunga JIBOR 1M. (DJPPR)

Global Economic News: Pelemahan aktivitas manufaktur di AS dan Eropa terus berlanjut di tengah resiliensi ekspansi sektor jasa. Hal ini tercermin dari angka PMI manufaktur dan jasa yang dirilis tadi malam. PMI manufaktur di zona Euro dan Britania Raya menurun lebih rendah dari konsensus pada bulan Juli menjadi masing-masing 42.7 dan 45 (Jun: 43.4 dan 46.5; Cons Jul: 43.5 dan 46.1). Sedangkan, PMI manufaktur Amerika Serikat naik menjadi 49 (Jun: 46.3; Cons Jul: 46.4) walaupun masih di zona kontraksi. PMI sektor jasa zona Euro, Britania Raya, dan Amerika Serikat melemah lebih rendah dari konsensus menjadi masing-masing 51.1, 51.5, dan 52.4 (Jun: 52, 53.7, dan 54,4; Cons Jun: 51.5, 53, dan 54). (Investing)

Domestic Economic News: Pemerintah kembali catatkan surplus anggaran sebesar IDR 152.3tn atau 0.71% terhadap PDB untuk 6M23 (5M23: IDR 204.3tn atau 0.97% terhadap PDB). Surplus anggaran 6M23 lebih besar daripada surplus anggaran 6M22 sebesar 0.47% terhadap PDB. Mempertimbangkan kondisi tahun sebelumnya, kami memprediksi defisit anggaran FY23 akan lebih rendah dari target defisit anggaran pemerintah sebesar -2.5% terhadap PDB (APBN: -2.8%). Defisit anggaran yang lebih rendah daripada perkiraan awal akan memperkuat sentimen bullish investor terhadap pasar obligasi domestik. (Kontan)

Recommendation: FR0040, FR0081, FR0084, FR0086, FR0089, FR0094, PBS017, PBS036.

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Samuel's Daily Macro and Fixed Income Report 25 Juli 2023 (Ind)
Samuel's Daily Macro and Fixed Income Report 25 Juli 2023 (Eng)

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Samuel's Daily Macro and Fixed Income Report 25 Juli 2023 (Ind)
Samuel's Daily Macro and Fixed Income Report 25 Juli 2023 (Eng)

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