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| Global market is quieter than expected
Global bond and stock markets were quieter than we expected; last night; last night (8/28), US and Europe stock indices went up by an average of 0.7% and 1.2%, respectively. Meanwhile, the UST 10Y yield fell -3 bps to 4.2%. We noticed that global investors tend to be more cautious in addressing the uncertainty of the Fed rate scenario after Powell's hawkish Jackson Hole speech. It is possible that market participants are doubtful about Powell's hawkish statement, but they choose to wait and see until the release of US inflation and employment data on Thursday and Friday. We believe this is good for the Indonesian market; on Monday (8/28), JCI rose +0.4%, ICBI index +0.3%, and IDMA index + 0.2%. Even though the INDOGB 10Y yield fell -6 bps to 6.46%, we advise market participants to remain cautious because it coincided with the decline in INDOGB 10Y vs. 2Y yield spread to 9 bps (8/25:15 bps). In our opinion, a drop in INDOGB 10Y yield will be more convincing if accompanied by a decline in INDOGB 2Y yield, which will help widen the spread between 10Y Vs. 2Y yields. We expect the INDOGB 10Y yield to consolidate at 6.45-6.55% today, while Rupiah might appreciate towards 15,200-15,300 per USD. Fixed Income News: Ministry of Finance will hold an SBSN auction today with an indicative target of IDR 6tn. We expect incoming bids in today's SBSN auction to reach IDR 22-27tn. Even though incoming bids still show a downward trend, coming in at IDR 20.2tn in the previous auction (8/15) (8/2: IDR 22.1tn), we noticed that market sentiment had started to improve at the start of this week. Thus, we believe that there might be a chance for a rebound in demand. (DJPPR) Global Economic News: Dallas Fed's manufacturing business index improved to -17.2 in August (Jul: -20; Cons: -21.6). Despite the improvement, the Dallas Fed's manufacturing index is still stuck in the contraction zone for the 16th straight month. This indicates that the US manufacturing sector recession will continue, and we expect the ISM manufacturing PMI to remain in the contraction zone in August. (Investing) Domestic Economic News: Banking credit growth slowed down to 7.5% yoy in July (Jun: 7.8% yoy), mainly due to the decline in working capital loan growth to 5.4% yoy (Jun: 6.5% yoy). Meanwhile, investment and consumption credit growth went up to 9.4% yoy (Jun: 8.4% yoy and 9.1% yoy). (Bank Indonesia) |
Recommendation: FR0040, FR0056, FR0081, FR0084, FR0086, FR0096, FR0097, FR0098.
Samuel Sekuritas Indonesia is a leading Indonesian securities brokerage firm. Established in 1997, the firm has grown to become one of the most respected and trusted financial services companies in the country. With a wide range of services and products, Samuel Sekuritas Indonesia has become a trusted partner to many investors, both institutional and individual.
The company offers a variety of financial services, including equity, debt and derivative securities brokerage services, research and portfolio management, asset management and capital market services, as well as a range of other investment solutions. Samuel Sekuritas Indonesia is also a leader in providing financial education and training, and has established itself as a leading provider of investor relations services.
The company has a strong research capability and is committed to providing its clients with up-to-date and reliable market analysis and recommendations. It also has a team of experienced and knowledgeable professionals who are dedicated to providing quality service to its clients. As a result, Samuel Sekuritas Indonesia has become a preferred partner for many investors in Indonesia.
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