Research & Stock Picks

Daily Report

02 October 2023

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Global macroeconomic situation is getting more conducive

Global macroeconomic situation is slowly heading in a more positive direction. It began with the better-than-expected Eurozone inflation rate, which practically sealed the end of ECB's rate hike policy (see Global Economic News). In addition, the monthly US PCE inflation rate fell to 0.14% mom in August (Jul: 0.22% mom) amidst global oil price hike, which pushed up the monthly CPI inflation rate to 0.28% mom (Jul: 0.16% mom). The temporary agreement between Republicans and Democrats in US Congress, which helped avoid a government shutdown, will reduce the risk and volatility of global stock and bond markets this week. Meanwhile, investors in Asia can breathe a sigh of relief as China's manufacturing activity contraction stalled in September, marked by the increase in manufacturing PMI to 50.2 (Aug: 49.7; Cons: 50.2). Investors responded to this situation by purchasing bonds in developed (S&P index rose 0.3%) and emerging markets (EMBI index rose 0.4%). We project the INDOGB 10Y yield to decline to the 6.8-6.9% range today, while Rupiah might consolidate at IDR 15,400-15,500 per USD.

Fixed Income News: SMF offers Shelf Registration Bonds VII Phase II/2023 with a total principal value of IDR 2.77tn. The bonds will be offered in three series; Series A (IDR 1.2tn, 370-day tenor, and annual coupon rate of 6,185%), Series B (IDR 256bn, 3-year tenor, and annual coupon rate of 6.325%), and Series C (IDR 1.2tn, 5-year tenor, and annual coupon rate of 6.75%). PT Pemeringkat Efek Indonesia (Pefindo) has assigned an '(id)AAA' rating for the bonds. The bookbuilding period for the bonds is October 11-17. (Emitennews)

Global Economic News: Eurozone inflation fell to 4.3% yoy in September (Aug: 5.2% yoy; Cons: 4.5% yoy). Meanwhile, the core CPI inflation fell to 4.5% yoy (Aug: 5.3% yoy; Cons: 4.8% yoy). The lower-than-expected inflation rate (ECB CPI projection: 5.6% yoy; core CPI: 5.1% yoy) confirms that ECB's rate hike cycle is over, and rate cuts could be started as early as 3Q24. (Financial Times)

Domestic Economic News: Pertamina raises the prices of non-subsidized fuel, including Pertamax (IDR 14,000 per liter (Prev: IDR 13,300), Pertamax Turbo (IDR 16,600 (Prev: IDR: 15,900), Dexlite (IDR 17,200 (Prev: 16,350), DEX (IDR 17,900 (Prev: IDR 16,900), and Pertamax Green 95 (IDR 16,000 (Prev: 15,000). According to our calculation, the price hike will increase CPI inflation rate by 0.042%. (Kontan)

Recommendation: FR0040, FR0050, FR0068, FR0095, FR0097, FR0098, FR0100.

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Samuel's Daily Macro and Fixed Income Report 2 Oktober 2023 (Eng)
Samuel's Daily Macro and Fixed Income Report 2 Oktober 2023 (Ind)

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Samuel's Daily Macro and Fixed Income Report 2 Oktober 2023 (Eng)
Samuel's Daily Macro and Fixed Income Report 2 Oktober 2023 (Ind)

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