Research & Stock Picks

Daily Report

14 December 2023

By

Gap IHSG Vs. LQ 45 & IDX 80 tekan Rupiah, SBN; Pasar proyeksikan pemangkasan 150 bps Vs. Fed: 75 bps

Aksi jual terbatas terjadi di pasar SBN kemarin yang tercermin dari kenaikan Yield 5Y dan 10Y INDOGB masing-masing 6 dan 7 bps menjadi 6.76% dan 6.7% kemarin (13/12) akibat depresiasi Rupiah. Depresiasi tersebut disebabkan oleh arus keluar modal asing dari IHSG yang berlangsung sejak hari Selasa pekan lalu (5/12) dengan total nilai USD 238.9mn (lihat Chart 5). Walaupun IHSG mencatat kenaikan 3.3% ytd hingga 7,075 per (13/12), indeks LQ 45 dan IDX 80 mencatat kontraksi masing-masing -0.5% dan -1.5% ytd yang mengindikasikan ketidakseimbangan pergerakan antara saham blue chip dengan saham-saham lainnya terutama sejumlah saham IPO, seperti CUAN (naik 4,042.3% ytd), BREN (676.9% ytd), dan AMMN (306% ytd). Tampaknya hal ini memicu kekhawatiran investor asing atas fundamental IHSG. Sementara itu, euforia spekulatif melanda pasar global setelah rilis data inflasi PPI Amerika Serikat yang lebih rendah dibandingkan konsensus (lihat global economic news) dan pengumuman proyeksi FOMC Desember dengan naiknya pemangkasan suku bunga The Fed 2024 menjadi 75 bps (Sep: 50 bps). Pasar memperkirakan suku bunga Fed akan turun 150 bps menjadi 4.5% di 2024 dengan peluang dovish pivot terjadi di 1Q24 (Maret). Akibatnya, indeks obligasi EMBI untuk emerging market naik 0.7% dan yield 10Y UST dan Bund masing-masing turun -18 dan -5 bps menjadi 4.02% dan 2.17%. Yield 10Y INDOGB berpeluang turun menuju rentang 6.6-6.7%, yang diikuti apresiasi Rupiah menuju rentang IDR 14,500-15,500 per USD.

Fixed Income News: Tingkat permintaan lelang SUN turun menjadi IDR 41.2tn (28/11: IDR 48.7tn). Tingkat permintaan SUN turun melebihi proyeksi kami (IDR 43-47tn) akibat sikap hati-hati para pelaku pasar menjelang rilis data inflasi CPI AS. Nilai penerbitan SUN baru juga turun menjadi IDR 19tn (28/11: IDR 19.2tn). Alokasi terbesar lelang SUN tercatat pada seri FR0101 (IDR 7.3tn) dan FR0100 (IDR 4.3tn). (DJPPR)

Global Economic News: Inflasi PPI AS bulan November turun melebihi konsensus menjadi 0.9% yoy (Oct: 1.2% yoy; Cons: 1% yoy). Penurunan inflasi PPI yang melebihi proyeksi para pelaku pasar memungkinkan penurunan laju inflasi inti PCE bulanan di bawah 0.1% mom pada bulan November (CPI: 0.285% mom). Sehingga, spekulasi terhadap dovish pivot The Fed di 1Q24 (Maret) kembali meningkat dengan probabilita 66%. (Wall Street Journal)

Domestic Economic News: Pemerintah tunda implementasi NIK sebagai pengganti NPWP hingga 1 Juli 2024 (Prev: 1 Januari 2024). Penundaan tersebut disebabkan oleh penundaan implementasi Coretax Administration System (CTAS) hingga waktu yang sama dan diatur dalam Peraturan Menteri Keuangan (PMK) No. 112/PMK.03/2022. (Bisnis Indonesia)

Recommendation: FR0096, FR0097, FR0098, FR0100, FR0101.

Share This:

Highlights

Download PDF

Download PDF

Samuel's Daily Macro and Fixed Income Report 14 Desember 2023 (Ind)
Samuel's Daily Macro and Fixed Income Report 14 Desember 2023 (Eng)

Download PDF

Samuel's Daily Macro and Fixed Income Report 14 Desember 2023 (Ind)
Samuel's Daily Macro and Fixed Income Report 14 Desember 2023 (Eng)

More Related

Daily Stock Technical Recommendations

Apr 24, 2024

Daily Stock Technical – 24 April 2024

Daily Report

Apr 24, 2024

IHSG Berpotensi Menguat Hari Ini

Daily Stock Technical Recommendations

Apr 23, 2024

Daily Stock Technical – 23 April 2024

Daily Report

Apr 22, 2024

IHSG Berpotensi Melemah

Daily Stock Technical Recommendations

Apr 22, 2024

Daily Stock Technical – 22 April 2024

Daily Report

Apr 19, 2024

IHSG Berpotensi Melemah

Daily Report

Apr 18, 2024

IHSG Berpotensi Bergerak Sideways

Daily Stock Technical Recommendations

Apr 17, 2024

Daily Stock Technical – 17 April 2024

Daily Report

Apr 17, 2024

IHSG Berpotensi Menguat

Daily Report

Apr 16, 2024

IHSG Berpotensi Bergerak Melemah

Daily Stock Technical Recommendations

Apr 16, 2024

Daily Stock Technical – 16 April 2024

Daily Stock Technical Recommendations

Apr 5, 2024

Daily Stock Technical – 05 April 2024

Daily Report

Apr 5, 2024

IHSG Berpotensi Melemah

Daily Stock Technical Recommendations

Apr 4, 2024

Daily Stock Technical – 04 April 2024

Daily Report

Apr 4, 2024

IHSG Berpotensi Bergerak Sideways

Daily Stock Technical Recommendations

Apr 3, 2024

Daily Stock Technical – 03 April 2024

Daily Report

Apr 3, 2024

IHSG Berpotensi Melemah Hari Ini

Daily Stock Technical Recommendations

Apr 2, 2024

Daily Stock Technical – 02 April 2024

Daily Report

Apr 1, 2024

IHSG Berpotensi Bergerak Menguat

Daily Stock Technical Recommendations

Apr 1, 2024

Daily Stock Technical – 01 April 2024

Daily Stock Technical Recommendations

Mar 28, 2024

Daily Stock Technical – 28 Mar 2024

Daily Report

Mar 28, 2024

IHSG Berpotensi Bergerak Menguat

Daily Stock Technical Recommendations

Mar 27, 2024

Daily Stock Technical – 27 Mar 2024

Daily Report

Mar 27, 2024

IHSG Berpotensi Sideways

Daily Stock Technical Recommendations

Mar 26, 2024

Daily Stock Technical – 26 Mar 2024

Daily Stock Technical Recommendations

Mar 25, 2024

Daily Stock Technical – 25 Mar 2024

Daily Report

Mar 25, 2024

IHSG Berpotensi Melemah

Daily Stock Technical Recommendations

Mar 22, 2024

Daily Stock Technical – 22 Mar 2024

Daily Report

Mar 22, 2024

IHSG Berpotensi Menguat

Emiten Report

Mar 21, 2024

AKRA: 4Q23 Results

Daily Stock Technical Recommendations

Mar 21, 2024

Daily Stock Technical – 21 Mar 2024

Daily Report

Mar 21, 2024

IHSG Berpotensi Bergerak Menguat

Emiten Report

Mar 20, 2024

GOTO: 4Q23 Results

Daily Stock Technical Recommendations

Mar 20, 2024

Daily Stock Technical – 20 Mar 2024

Daily Report

Mar 20, 2024

IHSG Berpotensi Melanjutkan Penguatan

Daily Stock Technical Recommendations

Mar 19, 2024

Daily Stock Technical – 19 Mar 2024

Daily Stock Technical Recommendations

Mar 18, 2024

Daily Stock Technical – 18 Mar 2024

Daily Report

Mar 18, 2024

IHSG Berpotensi Melemah Hari Ini

Daily Stock Technical Recommendations

Mar 15, 2024

Samuel Daily Stock Technical – 15 Mar 2024

Daily Stock Technical Recommendations

Mar 14, 2024

Samuel Daily Stock Technical – 14 Mar 2024

Daily Report

Mar 14, 2024

IHSG Berpotensi Sideways Hari Ini

Daily Stock Technical Recommendations

Mar 13, 2024

Daily Stock Technical – 13 Mar 2024

Daily Report

Mar 13, 2024

IHSG Berpotensi Melanjutkan Penguatan Hari Ini

Daily Report

Mar 8, 2024

IHSG Berpotensi Menguat

Emiten Report

Mar 7, 2024

PGAS: BUY (Maintained), TP at 1,300 – Moderating Outlook

Daily Report

Mar 7, 2024

IHSG Berpotensi Akan Melanjutkan Penguatan

Daily Stock Technical Recommendations

Mar 7, 2024

Daily Stock Technical – 07 Mar 2024

Daily Report

Mar 6, 2024

IHSG Berpotensi Bergerak Melemah

Daily Stock Technical Recommendations

Mar 6, 2024

Daily Stock Technical – 06 Mar 2024

Daily Report

Mar 5, 2024

IHSG Berpotensi Melemah

Daily Stock Technical Recommendations

Mar 5, 2024

Daily Stock Technical – 05 Mar 2024

Daily Report

Mar 4, 2024

IHSG Berpotensi Menguat

Daily Report

Mar 1, 2024

IHSG Berpotensi Menguat

Emiten Report

Feb 29, 2024

Automotive Sector – IIMS 2024: EV Steals the Show

Daily Report

Feb 29, 2024

IHSG Berpotensi Bergerak Melemah

Daily Report

Feb 28, 2024

JCI is Expected to Go Sideways Today

Emiten Report

Feb 27, 2024

NCKL: BUY (Maintained), TP at 1,200 (from 1,500) – More Clarity on the Upcoming Corporate Action

Daily Stock Technical Recommendations

Feb 27, 2024

Daily Stock Technical – 27 Feb 2024

Daily Report

Feb 26, 2024

IHSG Berpotensi Menguat Hari Ini

Daily Stock Technical Recommendations

Feb 26, 2024

Daily Stock Technical – 26 Feb 2024

Daily Stock Technical Recommendations

Feb 23, 2024

Daily Stock Technical – 23 Feb 2024

Daily Report

Feb 23, 2024

IHSG Berpotensi Menguat

Daily Stock Technical Recommendations

Feb 22, 2024

Daily Stock Technical – 22 Feb 2024

Daily Report

Feb 22, 2024

IHSG Berpotensi Bergerak Menguat

Daily Stock Technical Recommendations

Feb 21, 2024

Daily Stock Technical – 21 Feb 2024

Daily Report

Feb 21, 2024

IHSG Berpotensi Melemah Hari Ini

Emiten Report

Feb 20, 2024

Strategy Report: 2024 Elections – What’s Next?

Daily Stock Technical Recommendations

Feb 20, 2024

Daily Stock Technical – 20 Feb 2024

Emiten Report

Feb 19, 2024

BBRI: BUY (Maintain), TP at 6,800 – Higher earning-assets portfolio to support NIM

Daily Report

Feb 19, 2024

IHSG Berpotensi Sideways Hari Ini

Daily Stock Technical Recommendations

Feb 19, 2024

Daily Stock Technical – 19 Feb 2024

Daily Report

Feb 16, 2024

IHSG Berpotensi Menguat

Daily Stock Technical Recommendations

Feb 13, 2024

Daily Stock Technical – 13 Feb 2024

Daily Report

Feb 13, 2024

IHSG Berpotensi Bergerak Menguat

Daily Stock Technical Recommendations

Feb 12, 2024

Daily Stock Technical – 12 Feb 2024

Daily Report

Feb 12, 2024

IHSG Berpotensi Menguat

Daily Stock Technical Recommendations

Feb 7, 2024

Daily Stock Technical – 07 Feb 2024

Daily Report

Feb 7, 2024

IHSG Berpotensi Sideways

Daily Stock Technical Recommendations

Feb 6, 2024

Daily Stock Technical – 06 Feb 2024

Emiten Report

Feb 5, 2024

BBNI: BUY (Maintain), TP at 6,600 – Fundamental improvement in risk profile

Emiten Report

Feb 5, 2024

BBCA: BUY (Maintain), TP at 10,800 – Conservative During Election Year

Daily Report

Feb 5, 2024

IHSG Berpotensi Sideways

Daily Report

Feb 2, 2024

IHSG Berpotensi Menguat

Daily Stock Technical Recommendations

Feb 2, 2024

Daily Stock Technical – 02 Feb 2024

Daily Stock Technical Recommendations

Feb 1, 2024

Daily Stock Technical – 01 Feb 2024

Daily Report

Feb 1, 2024

IHSG Berpotensi Bergerak Melemah

Daily Stock Technical Recommendations

Jan 31, 2024

Daily Stock Technical – 31 Jan 2024

Daily Report

Jan 31, 2024

IHSG Berpotensi Melemah

Daily Stock Technical Recommendations

Jan 30, 2024

Daily Stock Technical – 30 Jan 2024

Emiten Report

Jan 29, 2024

RAJA: BUY (Maintain), TP at 2,200 – Long Live the King!

Daily Stock Technical Recommendations

Jan 29, 2024

Daily Stock Technical – 29 Jan 2024

Daily Report

Jan 29, 2024

IHSG Berpotensi Menguat

Daily Stock Technical Recommendations

Jan 26, 2024

Daily Stock Technical – 26 Jan 2024

Daily Report

Jan 26, 2024

IHSG Berpotensi Melemah

Daily Stock Technical Recommendations

Jan 25, 2024

Daily Stock Technical – 25 Jan 2024

Daily Report

Jan 25, 2024

IHSG Berpotensi Bergerak Sideways

Daily Stock Technical Recommendations

Jan 24, 2024

Daily Stock Technical – 24 Jan 2024

Daily Report

Jan 24, 2024

IHSG Berpotensi Melemah

Daily Stock Technical Recommendations

Jan 23, 2024

Daily Stock Technical – 23 Jan 2024