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Daily Report

18 December 2023

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Euforia dovish pivot The Fed meluas ke ECB

Euforia global terhadap peluang dovish pivot The Fed di 1Q24 meluas ke zona Euro. Hal ini dipicu oleh rilis data PMI manufaktur (bertahan di 44.2; Cons: 44.6) dan jasa (turun tipis menjadi 48.1; Nov: 48.7; Cons: 49) bulan Desember yang memperkuat sinyal-sinyal terjadinya resesi di zona Euro. Para pelaku pasar memperkirakan Bank Sentral Eropa (ECB) akan mempercepat pemangkasan suku bunga seperti Federal Reserve, walaupun Presiden ECB Lagarde bersikeras membantah potensi tersebut pada Kamis pekan lalu (14/12). Ekspektasi tersebut menyebabkan turunnya yield 10Y Bund -10 bps menjadi 2.02% yang diikuti dengan kenaikan indeks obligasi S&P untuk developed market (0.2%) dan EMBI untuk emerging market (0.1%). Namun, yield 10Y UST cenderung bergerak mendatar (sideways) yang diikuti menguatnya indeks dolar 0.6% menjadi 102.6. Walaupun efek dovish pivot ECB tidak sekuat The Fed, kami memprediksi sentimen tersebut akan menjaga yield 10Y INDOGB stabil di kisaran 6.55-6.65%. Pada sesi pagi dan siang (14/12) di Asia, terjadi penurunan yield 10Y dan 2Y INDOGB sebesar -7 bps menjadi masing-masing 6.57% dan 6.55%. Menurut kami, yield 10Y INDOGB akan tertahan di level 6.55-6.65% karena posisi yield instrumen tersebut sudah berada lebih rendah dari JIBOR 1M (6.66%). Kami juga memprediksi depresiasi Rupiah menuju rentang IDR 15,550-15,650 per USD.

Fixed Income News: Kementerian Keuangan akan laksanakan debt switch SUN hari ini. Seri SUN yang ditawarkan terdiri atas FR0089 dengan harga 99.7, FR0097 (103.75), FR0098 (104.6), FR0100 (100.2), dan FR0101 (101.25). Settlement debt switch akan diselesaikan di tanggal (21/12). (DJPPR)

Global Economic News: Pemulihan aktivitas ekonomi Tiongkok di bulan November masih belum merata. Hal ini tercermin dari lonjakan pertumbuhan penjualan ritel yang ternyata lebih rendah dari ekspektasi pasar menjadi 10.1% yoy (Oct: 7.6% yoy; Cons: 12.5% yoy) dan kenaikan produksi industri yang lebih tinggi daripada konsensus menjadi 6.6% yoy (Oct: 4.6% yoy; Cons: 5.6% yoy). Sedangkan, tingkat pertumbuhan investasi mengalami stagnasi di 2.9% yoy (Oct: 2.9% yoy; Cons: 3% yoy). (Caixin)

Domestic Economic News: Kementerian Kesehatan himbau vaksinasi COVID-19 kembali. Himbauan ini didengungkan seiring dengan kenaikan jumlah kasus COVID-19 sebesar 216 kasus menjadi 2,070 kasus aktif kemarin (17/12). Kemenkes menyatakan vaksinasi COVID-19 masih akan diberikan gratis tahun ini. Namun, masih belum ada kepastian mengenai dana bagi vaksinasi covid di 2024. (Kontan)

 

Recommendation: FR0096, FR0097, FR0098, FR0100, FR0101.

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Samuel's Daily Macro and Fixed Income Report 18 Desember 2023 (Ind)
Samuel's Daily Macro and Fixed Income Report 18 Desember 2023 (Eng)

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Samuel's Daily Macro and Fixed Income Report 18 Desember 2023 (Ind)
Samuel's Daily Macro and Fixed Income Report 18 Desember 2023 (Eng)

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