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Daily Report

19 June 2023

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Ekspektasi pasar bergeser ke skenario soft landing

Penyesuaian ekspektasi di pasar global berlanjut setelah the Fed merilis proyeksi ekonomi terbaru pada Rabu lalu (14/6). Proyeksi the Fed terhadap kemungkinan soft landing menyebabkan indeks komoditas S&P-Goldman Sachs berlanjut naik di Jumat lalu (16/6) sebesar 1.7%. Sehingga, rugi year-to-date harga komoditas turun menjadi -8.8% ytd dari -10.3% ytd sehari sebelumnya. Pergerakan di pasar saham global masih cenderung mixed dengan penurunan di pasar saham Amerika Serikat dan kenaikan di pasar saham Eropa. Hal yang sama juga terjadi di pasar obligasi AS dan Eropa. Menurut kami kondisi ini dapat berdampak positif terhadap IHSG, tetapi pasar obligasi domestik masih akan tertekan sentimen negatif dari rilis data neraca dagang bulan Mei. Meskipun demikian, kondisi di pasar obligasi domestik akan berangsur-angsur membaik menjelang lelang SBSN hari Selasa (20/6). Kami memprediksi yield INDOGB 10Y masih akan tertekan sentimen negatif di rentang 6.3-4% hari ini, diikuti depresiasi Rupiah ke rentang IDR 14,950-15,050 per USD.

Fixed Income News: MEDC tawarkan Obligasi Berkelanjutan V Tahap I Tahun 2023 senilai IDR 1tn. Obligasi ini akan terbagi menjadi tiga seri, yaitu Seri A dengan tenor 3 tahun, Seri B dengan tenor 5 tahun, dan Seri C denan tenor 7 tahun. Obligasi ini mendapat peringkat idAA- dari PT Pemeringkat Efek Indonesia (Pefindo). Dana yang diperoleh dari obligasi ini akan digunakan untuk pembelian kembali (buy back) sebagian surat utang berdenominasi USD yang diterbitkan oleh anak usaha Medco Platinum Road Pte Ltd. Medco Platinum Road memiliki total liabilitas USD 5.18bn dengan nilai liabilitas jangka pendek USD 1.37bn dan liabilitas jangka panjang USD 3.8bn. (Emitennews)

Global Economic News: Konsumen AS optimis ekonomi akan mengalami soft landing di 2H23. Optimisme ini tercermin dalam survei konsumen yang dirilis Universitas Michigan. Sentimen konsumen meningkat melebihi konsensus di bulan Juni menjadi 63.9 (May: 59.2; Cons Jun: 60) yang diikuti perbaikan ekspektasi 6 bulan ke depan menjadi 61.3. (May: 55.4; Cons Jun: 56.5). Sementara itu, ekspektasi inflasi konsumen setahun ke depan turun jauh lebih rendah dari konsensus menjadi 3.3% (May: 4.2%; Cons Jun: 4.4%). Kami melihat hal ini sebagai perkembangan positif karena turunnya ekspektasi inflasi bisa menahan the Fed untuk menaikkan suku bunga di bulan Juli. (Reuters)

Domestic Economic News: Kementerian Keuangan naikkan batas harga rumah bebas PPN tahun 2023 dan 2024. Batas harga jual rumah tapak bebas PPN dinaikkan menjadi antara IDR 162-234mn untuk 2023 dan 166-240mn untuk 2024. Pada peraturan sebelumnya batas bebas PPN yang ditetapkan adalah antara IDR 150.5-219mn. Kami melihat kebijakan bebas PPN rumah tapak akan membantu sektor konstruksi serta pembiayaan rumah bersubsidi yang menyasar konsumen kategori low dan middle low. (CNN Indonesia)

Recommendation: FR0067, FR0076, FR0089, FR0081, FR0040, FR0084, FR0086, PBS017.

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Samuel's Daily Macro and Fixed Income Report 19 Juni 2023 (Ind)
Samuel's Daily Macro and Fixed Income Report 19 Juni 2023 (Eng)

Download PDF

Samuel's Daily Macro and Fixed Income Report 19 Juni 2023 (Ind)
Samuel's Daily Macro and Fixed Income Report 19 Juni 2023 (Eng)

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