Research & Stock Picks

Daily Report

08 June 2023

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Ekspektasi kenaikan suplai UST USD 1.1tn = momen take profit INDOGB

Pasar obligasi global mengalami tekanan jual yang cukup tinggi tadi malam (7/6) akibat ekspektasi tambahan suplai treasury bills sebesar USD 1.1tn hingga akhir 2023 dengan tambahan suplai sebesar USD 850bn diperkirakan akan dirilis dalam empat bulan ke depan (lihat fixed income news). Akibatnya, selisih (spread) yield antara INDOGB dan UST 10Y turun -15 bps menjadi 254 bps. Menurut kami, nilai yield spread saat ini sudah berada pada posisi yang kurang kompetitif. Sehingga, kami merekomendasikan take profit sebagian bagi INDOGB tenor 2Y, 10Y dan 15Y yang kami rekomendasikan. Kami memperkirakan kondisi di pasar obligasi global dan domestik masih akan fluktuatif hingga pengumuman suku bunga the Fed pada Rabu minggu depan (14/6). Kami memprediksi yield INDOGB 10-tahun turun ke rentang 6.35-6.45% hari ini. Sementara itu, Rupiah diperkirakan bergerak sideways dalam rentang IDR 14,850-14,950 per USD.

Fixed Income News: JP Morgan prediksi tambahan suplai UST sebesar USD 1.1tn pasca-penyelesaian negosiasi plafon utang pemerintah AS. Menurut estimasi JP Morgan, suplai UST akan meningkat sebesar USD 1.1tn hingga akhir 2023 karena kebutuhan pemerintah Amerika Serikat untuk membangun kembali posisi kas mereka melalui treasury bills yang memiliki tenor kurang dari 1 tahun. Sebagian tambahan suplai UST tersebut diprediksi akan dirilis dalam empat bulan ke depan sebesar USD 850bn. Akibatnya, imbal hasil (yield) UST dan Bund 10Y naik masing-masing sebesar 14 dan 8 bps menjadi 3.8% dan 2.46%. (Financial Times)

Global Economic News: PBOC perintahkan bank-bank besar untuk turunkan suku bunga tabungan. Pemangkasan suku bunga tabungan ini berlaku untuk tabungan berdenominasi CNY maupun USD. Suku bunga tabungan konvensional (demand deposit) akan dipangkas sebesar 5 bps (Now: 0.25%). Sementara itu, suku bunga tabungan berjangka 3Y dan 5Y akan dipangkas masing-masing sebesar 10 dan 15 bps (Now: 0.26% dan 0.265%). Menurut kami, pemangkasan suku bunga tabungan ini merupakan sinyal awal dari pemerintah Tiongkok untuk mulai memberikan stimulus moneter bagi perekonomian Tiongkok yang melambat pada 2Q23. (Caixin Global)

Domestic Economic News: Pemerintah berencana menaikkan kuota subsidi BBM 2023. Rencana ini merupakan respon terhadap kenaikan mobilitas sosial pasca-pandemi. Kuota solar bersubsidi 2023 akan dinaikkan 1.35 juta kiloliter menjadi 18.35 juta KL. Sementara itu, kuota 2024 diprediksi berada di kisaran 18.16-19 juta KL. Dengan nilai subsidi IDR 1,000 per liter dan tidak ada perubahan pada asumsi makro APBN, kami mengestimasi kebutuhan subsidi tambahan sebesar IDR 1.35tn. (Kontan)

Recommendation: FR0098, FR0050, FR0079, FR0081, FR0040, FR0084, FR0086, PBS017.

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Samuel's Daily Macro and Fixed Income Report 8 Juni 2023 (Ind)
Samuel's Daily Macro and Fixed Income Report 8 Juni 2023 (Eng)

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Samuel's Daily Macro and Fixed Income Report 8 Juni 2023 (Ind)
Samuel's Daily Macro and Fixed Income Report 8 Juni 2023 (Eng)

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