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21 December 2023

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BI pertahankan suku bunga acuan pada bulan Desember di tengah euforia dovish pivot

  • Bank Indonesia kembali mempertahankan suku bunga acuan BI Rate di level 6% sesuai dengan ekspektasi pasar (Nov: & Cons: 6%).
  • Walaupun keputusan tersebut sejalan dengan pernyataan Gubernur BI pada acara Pertemuan Tahunan BI di bulan November lalu (29/11), kami memperkirakan BI akan mengadopsi posisi kebijakan moneter yang lebih dovish di 2024 dengan mempertimbangkan sinyal dovish yang dikirimkan oleh The Fed serta euforia dovish pivot
  • Kami memperkirakan BI akan memangkas suku bunga BI Rate 75 bps menjadi 5.25% di 2024, lebih rendah dari pemangkasan suku bunga The Fed (150 bps menjadi 4%).

Bank Indonesia kembali mempertahankan suku bunga acuan BI Rate (7DRRR) di level 6% pada pengumuman Rapat Dewan Gubernur terakhir untuk tahun 2023 hari ini (21/12), sejalan dengan konsensus (Nov: & Cons: 6%) maupun pernyataan Gubernur BI Perry Warjiyo pada acara Pertemuan Tahunan Bank Indonesia 2023 yang dilaksanakan pada November lalu (29/11). Dalam acara tersebut, Gubernur Perry menegaskan rencananya untuk menahan suku bunga BI rate di 6% hingga 2025 untuk menjaga stabilitasi makro, terutama nilai tukar Rupiah (Janji tahan suku bunga sampai 2025, BI keluarkan 4 jurus).

Seiring menguatnya Rupiah serta naiknya cadangan devisa BI dalam dua bulan terakhir (lihat Chart 1), kami memprediksi BI akan mengubah posisinya menjadi lebih dovish. Keputusan Federal Reserve untuk meningkatkan besaran proyeksi pemangkasan suku bunga FFR di 2024 menjadi 75 bps (Prev: 50 bps) juga akan berpengaruh terhadap posisi kebijakan moneter BI.

Dengan mempertimbangkan euforia dovish pivot yang tengah berlangsung di pasar global, kami memperkirakan BI akan memangkas suku bunga sebesar 75 bps menjadi 5.25% pada 2024. Proyeksi ini didasarkan pada asumsi The Fed akan mengadopsi skenario dovish pivot yang lebih konservatif, yaitu dimulainya pemangkasan suku bunga acuan FFR mulai 2Q24 (bulan Mei) dengan besaran pemangkasan 6X25 bps menjadi 4% (lihat Chart 2).

Keputusan kami untuk mengadopsi skenario dovish pivot yang lebih konservatif didasarkan pada estimasi rata-rata laju inflasi headline dan core bulanan PCE Amerika Serikat 0.2% mom di 2024. Dalam skenario ini, kami memperkirakan inflasi AS 2024 akan stabil di kisaran 2.4-2.6% yoy. Sedangkan, skenario dovish pivot yang saat ini diadopsi oleh para pelaku pasar global (pemangkasan suku bunga dimulai bulan Maret) lebih agresif karena mengasumsikan rata-rata laju inflasi bulanan 0.15% mom (lihat Chart 3).

Selain mempertimbangkan euforia dovish pivot pada tingkat global, kami juga menaruh perhatian terhadap kondisi keseimbangan eksternal Indonesia, yakni potensi melebarnya defisit neraca berjalan menjadi -0.9% terhadap PDB di 2024. Pelebaran tersebut disebabkan oleh merosotnya ekspor komoditas di 2024 yang kemungkinan dipicu oleh resesi ekonomi di sejumlah negara, seperti Jepang dan berbagai negara di zona Euro. Menghadapi situasi tersebut, BI perlu memperlebar selisih suku bunga acuan (policy rate spread) dengan The Fed dari posisi sekarang 50 bps menjadi 125 bps dengan memangkas suku bunga lebih rendah. Dengan langkah kebijakan tersebut, kami memperkirakan Rupiah akan stabil di kisaran IDR 15,400-15,600 per USD pada 2024 (lihat Chart 4).

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EDT-2023-12-21 (Ind)
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