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13 July 2023

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Bullish rally setelah rilis data inflasi CPI AS

Pasar obligasi global mengalami bullish rally yang kuat tadi malam (12/7) sebagai respon terhadap rilis data inflasi CPI yang melambat sedikit lebih baik dari harapan pasar (lihat global economic news). Indeks S&P untuk obligasi developed market dan EMBI untuk obligasi emerging market naik masing-masing sebesar 0.5% dan 0.8%. Sementara itu, imbal hasil (yield) UST dan Bund 10Y turun masing-masing sebesar -11 dan -7 bps menjadi 3.86% dan -7.1%. Kami memperkirakan bullish rally di pasar global akan berlanjut di pasar Asia, khususnya Indonesia yang mengalami rebound kemarin. Menurut estimasi kami, yield INDOGB 2Y berpotensi turun lebih besar daripada yield INDOGB 10Y hari ini. Berdasarkan data yield spread INDOGB 10Y vs. 2Y, kami memperkirakan potensi penurunan yield 2Y 55 bps lebih besar daripada 10Y (lihat chart 2). Oleh sebab itu, kami mengulangi kembali rekomendasi kami untuk realokasi portofolio dari long (10Y & 15Y) menjadi short (2Y). Menurut perkiraan kami, yield INDOGB 10Y berpotensi turun menuju rentang 6.05-6.15% hari ini, yang diikuti apresiasi Rupiah menuju rentang IDR 14,850-14,950 per USD.

Fixed Income News: Pefindo sematkan peringkat ‘idA(pg)’ untuk Obligasi Berwawasan Lingkungan I Tahun 2023 ARKO senilai IDR 350bn. PT Arkora Hydro yang merupakan anak usaha dari PT United Tractor akan merilis obligasi hijau ini dalam waktu dekat. Obligasi ini memperoleh penjaminan dari PT Indonesia Infrastructure Finance yang memiliki peringkat ‘idAAA’ dengan outlook stabil. Penjaminan yang diberikan adalah sekurang-kurangnya 75% dari nilai pokok obligasi dan 200% dari pembayaran kupon per kuartal. (EmitenNews)

Global Economic News: Inflasi CPI AS turun sejalan dengan konsensus pada bulan Juni menjadi 3% yoy (May: 4% yoy; Cons Jun: 3.1% yoy). Di waktu yang bersamaan, inflasi inti CPI juga turun menjadi 4.8% yoy (May: 5.3% yoy; Cons Jun: 5% yoy. Hasil rilis inflasi inti CPI yang lebih baik dari ekspektasi pasar menyebabkan ekspektasi kenaikan suku bunga 1X25 bps kedua pada bulan November atau Desember turun menjadi masing-masing 26% dan 21% (Prev: 34% dan 30%). Menurut kami, hasil ini membuka peluang bagi Bank Indonesia untuk mulai menurunkan suku bunga pada bulan September atau Oktober. (CNBC)

Domestic Economic News: Indeks penjualan riil bulan Mei lebih rendah dari proyeksi BI di tingkat 223.5 (BI Forc: 234.2) dan diperkirakan akan berlanjut menurun di bulan Juni menjadi 223.2. Menurut estimasi kami, data indeks penjualan riil dan indeks kepercayaan konsumen yang melemah menyiratkan pertumbuhan konsumsi rumah tangga yang sedikit melemah pada 2Q23 menjadi 4.3% yoy (1Q23: 4.5% yoy). (Bank Indonesia)

Recommendation: FR0040, FR0081, FR0084, FR0086, FR0089, FR0094, PBS017, PBS036.

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Samuel's Daily Macro and Fixed Income Report 13 Juli 2023 (Ind)
Samuel's Daily Macro and Fixed Income Report 13 Juli 2023 (Eng)

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Samuel's Daily Macro and Fixed Income Report 13 Juli 2023 (Ind)
Samuel's Daily Macro and Fixed Income Report 13 Juli 2023 (Eng)

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