Research & Stock Picks

Daily Report

06 December 2023

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Bullish rally global berlanjut, waspadai apresiasi USD

Sesuai dengan perkiraan kami, yield INDOGB dan INDON bergerak mendatar (flat) kemarin (5/12) akibat koreksi di pasar obligasi global. Akan tetapi, koreksi tersebut hanya bersifat sementara, yang tercermin dari penurunan yield 10Y UST dan Bund masing-masing -9 dan -10 bps menjadi 4.16% dan 2.25%. Walaupun yield obligasi developed market menurun, terjadi penguatan indeks dolar sebesar 0.2% menjadi 104 yang menekan indeks komoditas global S&P-Goldman Sachs turun -0.5%. Hal tersebut berpotensi menekan Rupiah menuju rentang IDR 15,500-15,600 per USD. Pelemahan Rupiah berpotensi merededam dampak positif dari berlanjutnya bullish rally di pasar global ke pasar SBN maupun IHSG hari ini. Kami memperkirakan yield 10Y INDOGB masih akan tertahan di rentang 6.55-6.65% hari ini yang diikuti oleh pergerakan sideways yield 2Y dan 5Y INDOGB di rentang masing-masing 6.6-6.7% dan 6.5-6.6%. Sedangkan, yield INDON berpeluang melanjutkan penurunan karena korelasi yang lebih kuat dengan pergerakan yield US treasury.

Fixed Income News: Tingkat permintaan lelang SBSN kemarin (5/12) meningkat menjadi IDR 19.8tn (21/11: IDR 18.6tn). Namun, jumlah rilis SBSN baru dikurangi menjadi IDR 9.1tn (21/11: 9.7tn). Alokasi penerbitan terbesar dicatat oleh PBS003 dengan tenor 4 tahun (IDR 4.2tn), yang diikuti oleh SPNS04062024 dengan tenor 6M (IDR 2tn) dan seri baru PBS038 yang berpotensi menjadi tenor acuan 25Y tahun depan (IDR1.3tn). (DJPPR)

Global Economic News: PMI ISM sektor jasa AS naik pada bulan November menjadi 52.7 (Oct: 51.8; Cons: 52). Kenaikan ini disebabkan oleh resiliensi tingkat permintaan terhadap produk jasa di Amerika Serikat yang tercermin dari PMI new orders yang bertahan di 55.5. Akan tetapi, kenaikan permintaan baru tersebut tidak diikuti dengan kenaikan rekrutmen tenaga kerja baru yang signifikan, yang terlihat dari peningkatan PMI employment menjadi 50.7 lebih rendah dari konsensus (Oct: 50.2; Cons: 51.4). Pasar melihat hal ini sebagai hasil yang positif karena memastikan terjadinya skenario soft landing perekonomian AS di 1H24 dan menjaga momentum pelemahan pasar tenaga kerja AS dengan tingkat pengangguran 3.9% per bulan Oktober. (Investing)

Domestic Economic News: Kementerian Kesehatan deteksi kasus pneumonia di Jakarta. Penyebaran Pneumonia terdeteksi pertama kali secara massif di Tiongkok. Menurut WHO, penyebaran kasus tersebut disebabkan oleh perubahan cuaca memasuki musim dingin di belahan bumi utara. Merespon temuan kasus pneumonia di Jakarta, para pakar kesehatan publik meminta pemerintah untuk menggalakkan vaksinasi PCV (Pneumococcal Conjugate Vaccine) dan penggunaan masker. (Kontan)

Recommendation: FR0096, FR0097, FR0098, FR0100, FR0101.

 

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Samuel's Daily Macro and Fixed Income Report 6 Desember 2023 (Eng)
Samuel's Daily Macro and Fixed Income Report 6 Desember 2023 (Ind)

Download PDF

Samuel's Daily Macro and Fixed Income Report 6 Desember 2023 (Eng)
Samuel's Daily Macro and Fixed Income Report 6 Desember 2023 (Ind)

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