Research & Stock Picks

Daily Report

05 July 2023

By

Bullish flattening = Overweight 2Y INDOGB

Kami melihat posisi kurva yield Indonesia semakin menuju posisi inverted setelah lelang SBSN kemarin (4/7). Walaupun permintaan obligasi di lelang SBSN kemarin turun (lihat fixed income news), imbal hasil (yield) INDOGB 10Y terus turun sebesar -3 bps menjadi 6.21%. Sementara itu, yield INDOGB 2Y hanya mencatat kenaikan tipis sebesar 1 bps menjadi 5.91%. Akibat pergerakan ini, yield spread INDOGB 10Y vs. 2Y kembali menipis menjadi 30 bps (prev: 33 bps) yang semakin mendekati titik terendah 25 bps pada Mei lalu. Yield spread antara INDOGB vs. UST 10Y juga turun di tengah libur nasional kemerdekaan Amerika Serikat menjadi 235 bps (Prev: 238 bps). Kami mengulangi kembali komendasi kami kepada investor untuk melakukan perubahan alokasi portofolio dari tenor panjang 10Y dan 15Y menjadi tenor pendek 2Y sebagai strategi menghadapi berlanjutnya bullish flattening yang kami prediksi masih akan berlanjut hingga minggu depan. Kami memprediksi yield INDOGB 10Y masih akan bergerak dalam rentang 6.2-6.3% hari ini, yang diikuti berlanjutnya tekanan depresiasi Rupiah dalam rentang IDR 15,000-15,100 per USD.

Fixed Income News: Jumlah penawaran masuk lelang SBSN 4/7 kembali turun menjadi IDR 34tn (20/6: IDR 41.4tn). Selain itu, kami juga melihat pergeseran alokasi hasil lelang dari tenor 16Y (PBS034) senilai IDR 3tn pada lelang sebelumnya (20/6) menjadi tenor 2Y (PBS036) sebesar IDR2.45tn pada lelang kali ini. Menurut kami, penurunan dan pergeseran alokasi lelang menunjukkan investor semakin khawatir terhadap kemungkinan kenaikan suku bunga terminal the Fed bulan ini. (DJPPR)

Global Economic News: RBA mengambil langkah menunggu dengan mempertahankan suku bunga acuan di 4.1% (Jun: 4.1%; Cons Jul: 4.35%). Tindakan bank sentral Australia  (RBA) tersebut mengejutkan pasar yang memprediksi kenaikan 25 bps menjadi 4.35%. RBA mengambil tindakan ini karena tingkat inflasi CPI Australia yang turun tajam di bulan Mei menjadi 5.6% yoy (Apr: 6.8% yoy). Dari siaran pers yang diterbitkan, RBA mengindikasikan masih akan menaikkan suku bunga acuannya di masa depan untuk menjaga momentum penurunan inflasi. (CNBC)

Domestic Economic News: Indonesia kembali ke peringkat negara dengan penghasilan menengah atas Bank Dunia. Menurut estimasi Bank Dunia, Indonesia mencatat kenaikan PDB per kapita pada 2022 menjadi USD 4,580 (2021: USD 4,170 per kapita). Angka tersebut berada di dekat ambang batas bawah kategori menengah atas Bank Dunia dengan rentang USD 4,466-13,845. Kami menyambut baik berita ini, tetapi tetap menjaga kewaspadaan karena kenaikan PDB per kapita Indonesia 2022 disebabkan oleh naiknya harga komoditas global yang bersifat sementara. (Kontan)

Recommendation: FR0040, FR0081, FR0084, FR0086, FR0089, FR0094, PBS017, PBS036.

Share This:

Highlights

Download PDF

Download PDF

Samuel's Daily Macro and Fixed Income Report 5 Juli 2023 (Ind)
Samuel's Daily Macro and Fixed Income Report 5 Juli 2023 (Eng)

Download PDF

Samuel's Daily Macro and Fixed Income Report 5 Juli 2023 (Ind)
Samuel's Daily Macro and Fixed Income Report 5 Juli 2023 (Eng)

More Related

Daily Stock Technical Recommendations

Jun 21, 2024

Daily Stock Technical – Jun 21, 2024

Daily Report

Jun 21, 2024

IHSG Berpotensi Melemah

Daily Report

Jun 20, 2024

IHSG Diperkirakan Bergerak Sideways Hari Ini

Daily Stock Technical Recommendations

Jun 20, 2024

Daily Stock Technical – Jun 20, 2024

Daily Report

Jun 19, 2024

IHSG Diperkirakan Bergerak Sideways Hari Ini

Daily Stock Technical Recommendations

Jun 19, 2024

Daily Stock Technical – Jun 19, 2024

Daily Report

Jun 14, 2024

Samuel Daily Economic Report 14 June 2024

Daily Stock Technical Recommendations

Jun 14, 2024

Daily Stock Technical – Jun 14, 2024

Daily Report

Jun 14, 2024

IHSG Diperkirakan Bergerak Sideways Hari Ini

Daily Stock Technical Recommendations

Jun 13, 2024

Daily Stock Technical – Jun 13, 2024

Daily Report

Jun 13, 2024

IHSG Berpotensi Mengalami Penguatan Hari Ini

Daily Report

Jun 12, 2024

Samuel Daily Economic Report 12 June 2024

Daily Stock Technical Recommendations

Jun 12, 2024

Daily Stock Technical – Jun 12, 2024

Daily Report

Jun 12, 2024

IHSG Berpotensi Naik Hari Ini

Daily Report

Jun 11, 2024

Samuel Daily Economic Report 11 June 2024

Daily Stock Technical Recommendations

Jun 11, 2024

Daily Stock Technical – Jun 11, 2024

Daily Report

Jun 10, 2024

Samuel Weekly Economic 10 June 2024

Daily Stock Technical Recommendations

Jun 10, 2024

Daily Stock Technical – Jun 10, 2024

Daily Report

Jun 10, 2024

IHSG Berpotensi Sideways

inflasi tahunan indonesia

Daily Report

Jun 7, 2024

Samuel Daily Economic 7 June 2024

Daily Stock Technical Recommendations

Jun 7, 2024

Daily Stock Technical – Jun 07, 2024

Daily Report

Jun 7, 2024

IHSG Diperkirakan Bergerak Sideways Hari Ini

Daily Stock Technical Recommendations

Jun 6, 2024

Daily Stock Technical – Jun 06, 2024

Daily Report

Jun 6, 2024

IHSG Diperkirakan Bergerak Sideways Hari Ini

inflasi tahunan indonesia

Daily Report

Jun 5, 2024

Samuel Daily Research 5 June 2024

Daily Stock Technical Recommendations

Jun 5, 2024

Daily Stock Technical – Jun 05, 2024

Daily Report

Jun 5, 2024

IHSG Berpotensi Sideways Hari Ini

Emiten Report

Jun 4, 2024

Banking Sector – Overweight – 4M24 Bank-Only Results

Daily Report

Jun 4, 2024

Samuel Daily Economic 4 June 2024

Daily Stock Technical Recommendations

Jun 4, 2024

Daily Stock Technical – Jun 04, 2024

Daily Report

Jun 3, 2024

Indonesia Manufacturing PMI: 3 June 2024

Daily Report

Jun 3, 2024

Indonesia May Inflation: 3 June 2024

Emiten Report

Jun 3, 2024

PGAS Update, BUY TP: 1,800 (from 1,300)

Daily Report

Jun 3, 2024

IHSG Berpotensi Sideways

Daily Stock Technical Recommendations

Jun 3, 2024

Daily Stock Technical – Jun 03, 2024

Daily Stock Technical Recommendations

May 31, 2024

Daily Stock Technical – May 31, 2024

Daily Report

May 31, 2024

IHSG Berpotensi Rebound Hari Ini

Daily Report

May 30, 2024

Samuel Daily Economic Report: 30 May 2024

Daily Stock Technical Recommendations

May 30, 2024

Daily Stock Technical – May 30, 2024

Daily Stock Technical Recommendations

May 29, 2024

Daily Stock Technical – May 29, 2024

Daily Report

May 29, 2024

IHSG Berpotensi Sideways Hari Ini

Daily Stock Technical Recommendations

May 28, 2024

Daily Stock Technical – May 28, 2024

Daily Report

May 27, 2024

IHSG Berpotensi Sideways

Daily Stock Technical Recommendations

May 27, 2024

Daily Stock Technical – May 27, 2024

Daily Stock Technical Recommendations

May 22, 2024

Daily Stock Technical – May 22, 2024

May 22, 2024

Daily Stock Technical – May 22, 2024

Daily Report

May 22, 2024

IHSG Berpotensi Melemah

Daily Stock Technical Recommendations

May 21, 2024

Daily Stock Technical – May 21, 2024

Daily Report

May 20, 2024

IHSG Berpotensi Menguat

Daily Stock Technical Recommendations

May 20, 2024

Daily Stock Technical – May 20, 2024

Daily Stock Technical Recommendations

May 17, 2024

Daily Stock Technical – May 17, 2024

Daily Report

May 17, 2024

IHSG Berpotensi Melemah

Daily Stock Technical Recommendations

May 16, 2024

Daily Stock Technical – May 16, 2024

Daily Report

May 16, 2024

IHSG Berpotensi Menguat

Emiten Report

May 15, 2024

BRMS – BUY (Maintain) – TP IDR 230 – Improved Earnings Ahead

Daily Report

May 15, 2024

Samuel Daily Economic 15 May 2024

Daily Stock Technical Recommendations

May 15, 2024

Daily Stock Technical – May 15, 2024

Daily Report

May 15, 2024

IHSG Berpotensi Menguat Hari Ini

Daily Report

May 14, 2024

Samuel Daily Macro: 14 May 2024

Daily Stock Technical Recommendations

May 13, 2024

Daily Stock Technical – May 14, 2024

Daily Report

May 13, 2024

Samuel Weekly Macro: 1st Week of May 2024

Daily Stock Technical Recommendations

May 13, 2024

Daily Stock Technical – May 13, 2024

Daily Report

May 13, 2024

IHSG Berpotensi Menguat Hari Ini

Daily Stock Technical Recommendations

May 8, 2024

Daily Stock Technical – May 08, 2024

Daily Report

May 8, 2024

IHSG Berpotensi Sideways Hari Ini

Daily Stock Technical Recommendations

May 7, 2024

Daily Stock Technical – May 07, 2024

Daily Report

May 6, 2024

IHSG Berpotensi Menguat Hari ini

Daily Stock Technical Recommendations

May 6, 2024

Daily Stock Technical – May 06, 2024

Daily Stock Technical Recommendations

May 4, 2024

Daily Stock Technical – 05 Feb 2024

Daily Stock Technical Recommendations

May 3, 2024

Daily Stock Technical – May 03, 2024

Daily Report

May 3, 2024

JCI is Expected to Move Sideways Today

Daily Report

May 2, 2024

JCI Is Expected to Decline Today

Daily Stock Technical Recommendations

May 2, 2024

Daily Stock Technical – May 02, 2024

Daily Stock Technical Recommendations

Apr 30, 2024

Daily Stock Technical – 30 April 2024

Daily Report

Apr 29, 2024

IHSG Berpotensi Menguat Hari Ini

Daily Stock Technical Recommendations

Apr 29, 2024

Daily Stock Technical – 29 April 2024

Daily Stock Technical Recommendations

Apr 26, 2024

Daily Stock Technical – 26 April 2024

Daily Report

Apr 26, 2024

IHSG Berpotensi Menguat

Daily Report

Apr 25, 2024

IHSG Berpotensi Sideways

Daily Stock Technical Recommendations

Apr 25, 2024

Daily Stock Technical – 25 April 2024

Daily Stock Technical Recommendations

Apr 24, 2024

Daily Stock Technical – 24 April 2024

Daily Report

Apr 24, 2024

IHSG Berpotensi Menguat Hari Ini

Daily Stock Technical Recommendations

Apr 23, 2024

Daily Stock Technical – 23 April 2024

Daily Report

Apr 22, 2024

IHSG Berpotensi Melemah

Daily Stock Technical Recommendations

Apr 22, 2024

Daily Stock Technical – 22 April 2024

Daily Report

Apr 19, 2024

IHSG Berpotensi Melemah

Daily Report

Apr 18, 2024

IHSG Berpotensi Bergerak Sideways

Daily Stock Technical Recommendations

Apr 17, 2024

Daily Stock Technical – 17 April 2024

Daily Report

Apr 17, 2024

IHSG Berpotensi Menguat

Daily Report

Apr 16, 2024

IHSG Berpotensi Bergerak Melemah

Daily Stock Technical Recommendations

Apr 16, 2024

Daily Stock Technical – 16 April 2024

Daily Stock Technical Recommendations

Apr 5, 2024

Daily Stock Technical – 05 April 2024

Daily Report

Apr 5, 2024

IHSG Berpotensi Melemah

Daily Stock Technical Recommendations

Apr 4, 2024

Daily Stock Technical – 04 April 2024

Daily Report

Apr 4, 2024

IHSG Berpotensi Bergerak Sideways

Daily Stock Technical Recommendations

Apr 3, 2024

Daily Stock Technical – 03 April 2024

Daily Report

Apr 3, 2024

IHSG Berpotensi Melemah Hari Ini

Daily Stock Technical Recommendations

Apr 2, 2024

Daily Stock Technical – 02 April 2024

Daily Report

Apr 1, 2024

IHSG Berpotensi Bergerak Menguat