Research & Stock Picks

Daily Report

13 December 2023

By

Asa pasar terhadap ekspektasi dovish pivot The Fed masih belum pupus

Rilis data inflasi CPI Amerika Serikat untuk bulan November yang sejalan dengan konsensus membuat pasar mulai ragu terhadap peluang terjadinya dovish pivot di 1Q24. Kenaikan laju inflasi inti bulanan CPI November menjadi 0.285% mom (Oct: 0.227% mom) disebabkan oleh naiknya laju inflasi supercore menjadi 0.441% mom (Oct: 0.215% mom) yang didominasi oleh biaya sewa rumah dan kesehatan. Akan tetapi, rilis data ini tidak membuat pasar kehilangan harapan terhadap peluang terjadinya dovish pivot di 1Q24 (lihat global economic news). Respon para pelaku pasar obligasi global juga lebih tenang, yang terlihat dari penurunan tipis yield 10Y UST dan Bund masing-masing -3 dan -4 bps menjadi 4.2% dan 2.23%. Indeks EMBI untuk obligasi emerging market mencetak kenaikan 0.2%. Berdasarkan kondisi ini, kami memprediksi yield 10Y INDOGB akan bergerak stabil di rentang 6.65-6.75%, diikuti dengan pergerakan serupa untuk instrumen 2Y dan 5Y. Rupiah berpotensi terapresiasi menuju rentang IDR 15,000-16,000 per USD.
Fixed Income News: Pefindo proyeksikan penerbitan obligasi korporasi capai IDR 169.1tn di 2024. Hal ini didasarkan pada besaran obligasi korporasi jatuh tempo 2024 IDR 153.1tn (2023: IDR 126.9tn). Menurut Pefindo, penerbitan obligasi korporasi 2024 akan didominasi oleh sektor jasa keuangan dengan rincian sub-sektor multifinance IDR 26.3tn, perbankan IDR 24.7tn, lembaga keuangan khusus IDR 14tn, serta pembiayaan non-multifinance senilai IDR 12.1tn. Sektor lainnya yang berpeluang menerbitkan obligasi dengan nilai yang besar adalah telekomunikasi (IDR 14.1tn), pulp & paper (IDR 8.3tn), pertambangan (IDR 7.5tn), konstruksi (IDR 5.4tn), properti (IDR 5.1tn), dan perkebunan (IDR 4.4tn). (Antaranews)
Global Economic News: Inflasi CPI AS bulan November turun sesuai konsensus menjadi 3.1% yoy (Oct: 3.2% yoy; Cons: 3.1% yoy). Inflasi inti CPI bertahan di 4% yoy seperti yang diperkirakan konsensus (Oct: & Cons: 4% yoy). Akibat rilis data inflasi CPI bulan November, probabilita pemangkasan suku bunga the Fed di bulan Maret turun tipis menjadi 42% (Prev: 44%) yang menunjukkan pasar masih belum kehilangan harapan atas peluang terjadinya dovish pivot The Fed di 1Q24. (CNBC)
Domestic Economic News: BPS akan muktahirkan perhitungan inflasi 2024 dengan tahun dasar 2022. Langkah pemuktahiran tersebut sudah dilakukan melalui pelaksanaan survei biaya hidup 2022 untuk memperbaharui survei sebelumnya pada tahun 2018. Selain itu, jangkauan survei diperluas menjadi 150 kabupaten dan kota dari sebelumnya hanya 90 kabupaten dan kota. Jumlah paket komoditas konsumsi yang disurvei juga meningkat dari 835 paket menjadi 847 paket. (Kontan)
Recommendation: FR0096, FR0097, FR0098, FR0100, FR0101.

Share This:

Highlights

Samuel's Daily Macro and Fixed Income Report 13 Desember 2023 (Eng)
Samuel's Daily Macro and Fixed Income Report 13 Desember 2023 (Ind)

Download PDF

Samuel's Daily Macro and Fixed Income Report 13 Desember 2023 (Eng)
Samuel's Daily Macro and Fixed Income Report 13 Desember 2023 (Ind)

More Related

Daily Stock Technical Recommendations

Apr 24, 2024

Daily Stock Technical – 24 April 2024

Daily Report

Apr 24, 2024

IHSG Berpotensi Menguat Hari Ini

Daily Stock Technical Recommendations

Apr 23, 2024

Daily Stock Technical – 23 April 2024

Daily Report

Apr 22, 2024

IHSG Berpotensi Melemah

Daily Stock Technical Recommendations

Apr 22, 2024

Daily Stock Technical – 22 April 2024

Daily Report

Apr 19, 2024

IHSG Berpotensi Melemah

Daily Report

Apr 18, 2024

IHSG Berpotensi Bergerak Sideways

Daily Stock Technical Recommendations

Apr 17, 2024

Daily Stock Technical – 17 April 2024

Daily Report

Apr 17, 2024

IHSG Berpotensi Menguat

Daily Report

Apr 16, 2024

IHSG Berpotensi Bergerak Melemah

Daily Stock Technical Recommendations

Apr 16, 2024

Daily Stock Technical – 16 April 2024

Daily Stock Technical Recommendations

Apr 5, 2024

Daily Stock Technical – 05 April 2024

Daily Report

Apr 5, 2024

IHSG Berpotensi Melemah

Daily Stock Technical Recommendations

Apr 4, 2024

Daily Stock Technical – 04 April 2024

Daily Report

Apr 4, 2024

IHSG Berpotensi Bergerak Sideways

Daily Stock Technical Recommendations

Apr 3, 2024

Daily Stock Technical – 03 April 2024

Daily Report

Apr 3, 2024

IHSG Berpotensi Melemah Hari Ini

Daily Stock Technical Recommendations

Apr 2, 2024

Daily Stock Technical – 02 April 2024

Daily Report

Apr 1, 2024

IHSG Berpotensi Bergerak Menguat

Daily Stock Technical Recommendations

Apr 1, 2024

Daily Stock Technical – 01 April 2024

Daily Stock Technical Recommendations

Mar 28, 2024

Daily Stock Technical – 28 Mar 2024

Daily Report

Mar 28, 2024

IHSG Berpotensi Bergerak Menguat

Daily Stock Technical Recommendations

Mar 27, 2024

Daily Stock Technical – 27 Mar 2024

Daily Report

Mar 27, 2024

IHSG Berpotensi Sideways

Daily Stock Technical Recommendations

Mar 26, 2024

Daily Stock Technical – 26 Mar 2024

Daily Stock Technical Recommendations

Mar 25, 2024

Daily Stock Technical – 25 Mar 2024

Daily Report

Mar 25, 2024

IHSG Berpotensi Melemah

Daily Stock Technical Recommendations

Mar 22, 2024

Daily Stock Technical – 22 Mar 2024

Daily Report

Mar 22, 2024

IHSG Berpotensi Menguat

Emiten Report

Mar 21, 2024

AKRA: 4Q23 Results

Daily Stock Technical Recommendations

Mar 21, 2024

Daily Stock Technical – 21 Mar 2024

Daily Report

Mar 21, 2024

IHSG Berpotensi Bergerak Menguat

Emiten Report

Mar 20, 2024

GOTO: 4Q23 Results

Daily Stock Technical Recommendations

Mar 20, 2024

Daily Stock Technical – 20 Mar 2024

Daily Report

Mar 20, 2024

IHSG Berpotensi Melanjutkan Penguatan

Daily Stock Technical Recommendations

Mar 19, 2024

Daily Stock Technical – 19 Mar 2024

Daily Stock Technical Recommendations

Mar 18, 2024

Daily Stock Technical – 18 Mar 2024

Daily Report

Mar 18, 2024

IHSG Berpotensi Melemah Hari Ini

Daily Stock Technical Recommendations

Mar 15, 2024

Samuel Daily Stock Technical – 15 Mar 2024

Daily Stock Technical Recommendations

Mar 14, 2024

Samuel Daily Stock Technical – 14 Mar 2024

Daily Report

Mar 14, 2024

IHSG Berpotensi Sideways Hari Ini

Daily Stock Technical Recommendations

Mar 13, 2024

Daily Stock Technical – 13 Mar 2024

Daily Report

Mar 13, 2024

IHSG Berpotensi Melanjutkan Penguatan Hari Ini

Daily Report

Mar 8, 2024

IHSG Berpotensi Menguat

Emiten Report

Mar 7, 2024

PGAS: BUY (Maintained), TP at 1,300 – Moderating Outlook

Daily Report

Mar 7, 2024

IHSG Berpotensi Akan Melanjutkan Penguatan

Daily Stock Technical Recommendations

Mar 7, 2024

Daily Stock Technical – 07 Mar 2024

Daily Report

Mar 6, 2024

IHSG Berpotensi Bergerak Melemah

Daily Stock Technical Recommendations

Mar 6, 2024

Daily Stock Technical – 06 Mar 2024

Daily Report

Mar 5, 2024

IHSG Berpotensi Melemah

Daily Stock Technical Recommendations

Mar 5, 2024

Daily Stock Technical – 05 Mar 2024

Daily Report

Mar 4, 2024

IHSG Berpotensi Menguat

Daily Report

Mar 1, 2024

IHSG Berpotensi Menguat

Emiten Report

Feb 29, 2024

Automotive Sector – IIMS 2024: EV Steals the Show

Daily Report

Feb 29, 2024

IHSG Berpotensi Bergerak Melemah

Daily Report

Feb 28, 2024

JCI is Expected to Go Sideways Today

Emiten Report

Feb 27, 2024

NCKL: BUY (Maintained), TP at 1,200 (from 1,500) – More Clarity on the Upcoming Corporate Action

Daily Stock Technical Recommendations

Feb 27, 2024

Daily Stock Technical – 27 Feb 2024

Daily Report

Feb 26, 2024

IHSG Berpotensi Menguat Hari Ini

Daily Stock Technical Recommendations

Feb 26, 2024

Daily Stock Technical – 26 Feb 2024

Daily Stock Technical Recommendations

Feb 23, 2024

Daily Stock Technical – 23 Feb 2024

Daily Report

Feb 23, 2024

IHSG Berpotensi Menguat

Daily Stock Technical Recommendations

Feb 22, 2024

Daily Stock Technical – 22 Feb 2024

Daily Report

Feb 22, 2024

IHSG Berpotensi Bergerak Menguat

Daily Stock Technical Recommendations

Feb 21, 2024

Daily Stock Technical – 21 Feb 2024

Daily Report

Feb 21, 2024

IHSG Berpotensi Melemah Hari Ini

Emiten Report

Feb 20, 2024

Strategy Report: 2024 Elections – What’s Next?

Daily Stock Technical Recommendations

Feb 20, 2024

Daily Stock Technical – 20 Feb 2024

Emiten Report

Feb 19, 2024

BBRI: BUY (Maintain), TP at 6,800 – Higher earning-assets portfolio to support NIM

Daily Report

Feb 19, 2024

IHSG Berpotensi Sideways Hari Ini

Daily Stock Technical Recommendations

Feb 19, 2024

Daily Stock Technical – 19 Feb 2024

Daily Report

Feb 16, 2024

IHSG Berpotensi Menguat

Daily Stock Technical Recommendations

Feb 13, 2024

Daily Stock Technical – 13 Feb 2024

Daily Report

Feb 13, 2024

IHSG Berpotensi Bergerak Menguat

Daily Stock Technical Recommendations

Feb 12, 2024

Daily Stock Technical – 12 Feb 2024

Daily Report

Feb 12, 2024

IHSG Berpotensi Menguat

Daily Stock Technical Recommendations

Feb 7, 2024

Daily Stock Technical – 07 Feb 2024

Daily Report

Feb 7, 2024

IHSG Berpotensi Sideways

Daily Stock Technical Recommendations

Feb 6, 2024

Daily Stock Technical – 06 Feb 2024

Emiten Report

Feb 5, 2024

BBNI: BUY (Maintain), TP at 6,600 – Fundamental improvement in risk profile

Emiten Report

Feb 5, 2024

BBCA: BUY (Maintain), TP at 10,800 – Conservative During Election Year

Daily Report

Feb 5, 2024

IHSG Berpotensi Sideways

Daily Report

Feb 2, 2024

IHSG Berpotensi Menguat

Daily Stock Technical Recommendations

Feb 2, 2024

Daily Stock Technical – 02 Feb 2024

Daily Stock Technical Recommendations

Feb 1, 2024

Daily Stock Technical – 01 Feb 2024

Daily Report

Feb 1, 2024

IHSG Berpotensi Bergerak Melemah

Daily Stock Technical Recommendations

Jan 31, 2024

Daily Stock Technical – 31 Jan 2024

Daily Report

Jan 31, 2024

IHSG Berpotensi Melemah

Daily Stock Technical Recommendations

Jan 30, 2024

Daily Stock Technical – 30 Jan 2024

Emiten Report

Jan 29, 2024

RAJA: BUY (Maintain), TP at 2,200 – Long Live the King!

Daily Stock Technical Recommendations

Jan 29, 2024

Daily Stock Technical – 29 Jan 2024

Daily Report

Jan 29, 2024

IHSG Berpotensi Menguat

Daily Stock Technical Recommendations

Jan 26, 2024

Daily Stock Technical – 26 Jan 2024

Daily Report

Jan 26, 2024

IHSG Berpotensi Melemah

Daily Stock Technical Recommendations

Jan 25, 2024

Daily Stock Technical – 25 Jan 2024

Daily Report

Jan 25, 2024

IHSG Berpotensi Bergerak Sideways

Daily Stock Technical Recommendations

Jan 24, 2024

Daily Stock Technical – 24 Jan 2024

Daily Report

Jan 24, 2024

IHSG Berpotensi Melemah

Daily Stock Technical Recommendations

Jan 23, 2024

Daily Stock Technical – 23 Jan 2024