Research & Stock Picks

Daily Report

10 May 2023

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Animo investor tetap tinggi pada lelang SBSN kemarin

Pasar obligasi global masih melemah menjelang rilis data inflasi Amerika Serikat malam nanti (10/5) dan besok (11/5). Walaupun indeks S&P untuk obligasi negara-negara maju turun -0.1% semalam (9/5), pergerakan imbal hasil (yield) UST dan Bund 10-tahun cenderung sideways, masing-masing meningkat sebesar 1 dan 3 bps menjadi 3.52% dan 2.35%. Sementara itu, pasar obligasi domestik mengalami pelemahan terbatas kemarin sesuai dengan ekspektasi kami. Akan tetapi, animo investor di pasar lelang tetap tinggi yang tercermin dari jumlah penawaran masuk yang meningkat menjadi IDR 40.7tn (lihat fixed income news). Kami memprediksi yield INDOGB 10-tahun masih akan melemah hari ini ke rentang 6.45-6.55% karena selisih yield INDOGB vs. UST 10-tahun yang masih di bawah 300 bps. Rupiah juga diprediksi melanjutkan pelemahan menuju rentang IDR 14,750-14,850 per USD.

Fixed Income News: Kementerian Keuangan memperoleh pendanaan IDR 9tn dari lelang SBSN kemarin (9/5). Jumlah penawaran yang masuk pada lelang kemarin mencapai IDR 40.7tn, jauh lebih tinggi daripada lelang SBSN terakhir sebelum Lebaran (4/4) sebesar IDR 24.8tn. Jumlah penawaran masuk terbesar dibukukan oleh instrumen PBS036 (IDR 14.8tn), PBS037 (IDR 9.8tn), PBS003 (IDR 6.3tn), dan PBSG001 (IDR 5.2tn). Berdasarkan besarnya nilai penawarn ini, Kementerian Keuangan mengalokasikan rilis terbesar untuk PBS003 (IDR 3.1tn), yang diikuti PBS036 (IDR 2.9tn), dan PBS037 (IDR 1.8tn). Tingginya nilai penawaran yang masuk konsisten dengan lonjakan arus masuk dana asing sejak Jumat lalu (5/5) yang mencapai USD 294.7mn hingga hari Senin (8/5). (DJPPR)

Global Economic News: Fed Jefferson optimis perekonomian AS akan alami soft landing pada 2H23. Hal tersebut diungkapkan oleh salah satu anggota Dewan Gubernur The Fed, Philip Jefferson, dalam pertemuan dengan asosiasi pebisnis kulit hitam Atlanta tadi malam (9/5). Jefferson mengatakan proses disinflasi di Amerika Serikat tidak akan mengganggu pertumbuhan ekonomi. Jefferson juga menyatakan optimis terhadap pengetatan pinjaman perbankan yang terjada belakangan ini karena laju pengetatan masih normal sesuai dengan siklus pengetatan moneter the Fed. (Investing)

Domestic Economic News: Indeks kepercayaan konsumen meningkat pada bulan April menjadi 126.1 (Mar: 123.3). Kenaikan tersebut merupakan dampak musiman dari Lebaran. Akan tetapi, kenaikan indeks kepercayaan pada Lebaran tahun ini lebih rendah daripada periode sebelum pandemi yang rata-rata mencapai 128. Menurut kami, indikasi penurunan sentimen konsumen tahun ini perlu dibandingkan dengan tingkat belanja pada periode-periode sebelumnya dengan menggunakan indeks penjualan riil Bank Indonesia. BI akan merilis data bulan Maret dan proyeksi indeks belanja riil April siang ini. (Bank Indonesia)

Recommendation: FR0096, FR0097, FR0050, FR0075, FR0079, PBS007, PBS034, PBS035.

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Samuel's Daily Macro and Fixed Income Report 10 Mei 2023 (Ind)
Samuel's Daily Macro and Fixed Income Report 10 Mei 2023 (Eng)

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Samuel's Daily Macro and Fixed Income Report 10 Mei 2023 (Ind)
Samuel's Daily Macro and Fixed Income Report 10 Mei 2023 (Eng)

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