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Daily Report

03 August 2023

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Aksi jual akibat downgrade rating AS masih berlanjut

Tekanan aksi jual akibat penurunan peringkat utang jangka panjang pemerintah Amerika Serikat masih berlangsung tadi malam (2/8). Indeks komoditas S&P dan Goldman Sachs turun -0.8%. Sementara itu, indeks saham di AS dan Eropa turun rata-rata -1.4%. Akan tetapi, aksi jual di pasar obligasi negara-negara maju mulai mereda, yang tercermin dari pergerakan flat indeks obligasi S&P untuk developed market. Sebaliknya, aksi jual di pasar obligasi negara-negara berkembang masih kuat dengan penurunan indeks EMBI untuk emerging markets sebesar -0.6%. Efek negatif dari peristiwa ini terhadap pasar obligasi domestik lebih terkonsentrasi di instrumen INDON yang berdenominasi mata uang asing. Imbal hasil (yield) INDON 10Y naik 7 bps menjadi 4.98% dan 3Y naik 6 bps menjadi 4.95%. Yield INDON 2Y hanya naik tipis sebesar 1 bps menjadi 5.27%. Kami memperkirakan efek negatif dari penurunan peringkat utang pemerintah AS masih akan berlangsung hari ini, tetapi dengan intensintas yang lebih rendah. Kami memprediksi yield INDOGB 10Y akan bergerak stabil di rentang 6.2-6.3%. Sedangkan, Rupiah dapat melanjutkan depresiasi menuju rentang IDR 15,150-250 per USD.

Fixed Income News: Fitch Ratings afirmasi peringkat PT Pan Brothers di ‘ÇCC-’. Peringkat ini mencerminkan ketidakmampuan perusahaan untuk menghasilkan arus kas yang cukup untuk melunasi pinjaman sindikasi senilai USD 124mn yang akan jatuh tempo akhir tahun ini. Bahkan, arus kas dari kegiatan operasional perusahaan diperkirakan akan tetap negatif pada 2023 (1Q23: USD -37mn). Menghadapi kondisi tersebut, perusahaan tidak memiliki pilihan selain melakukan refinancing. Saat ini negosiasi dengan pihak-pihak terkait tengah berlangsung. (Fitch Ratings)

Global Economic News: Bank Sentral Thailand (BOT) menaikkan suku bunga acuan 25 bps menjadi 2.25%. BOT juga membuka peluang kenaikan suku bunga lagi di bulan September mendatang karena para pejabat BOT khawatir terhadap dampak inflasi dari El Nino serta rencana para partai pemenang pemilu Thailand untuk menaikkan upah minimum. Menurut kami, keputusan suku bunga BOT tidak akan mempengaruhi Bank Indonesia karena situasi makro ekonomi Indonesia yang lebih baik. (Nikkei)

Domestic Economic News: Kementerian Keuangan umumkan insentif untuk pajak bunga deposito DHE SDA. Insentif tersebut berupa pengurangan pajak penghasilan atas bunga deposito dari 20% menjadi 10% (deposito 1 bulan), 7.5% (3 bulan), dan 2.5% (6 bulan). Bagi eksportir yang mengkonversi deposito valas menjadi deposito Rupiah akan memperoleh potongan pajak tambahan menjadi 7.5% (1 bulan), 5% (3 bulan), dan bebas pajak (6 bulan). Menurut kami, kebijakan ini tidak dapat meredam gejolak Rupiah yang sedang berlangsung saat ini, tetapi dapat berdampak positif atas stabilitas Rupiah di 4Q23. (Kontan)

Recommendation: FR0037, FR0040, FR0056, FR0084, FR0086, FR0090, PBS032, PBS036.

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Samuel's Daily Macro and Fixed Income Report 3 Agustus 2023 (Ind)
Samuel's Daily Macro and Fixed Income Report 3 Agustus 2023 (Eng)

Download PDF

Samuel's Daily Macro and Fixed Income Report 3 Agustus 2023 (Ind)
Samuel's Daily Macro and Fixed Income Report 3 Agustus 2023 (Eng)

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