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04 August 2023

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Aksi jual akibat downgrade rating AS belum menunjukkan tanda-tanda mereda

Tekanan aksi jual akibat penurunan peringkat utang jangka panjang pemerintah Amerika Serikat ternyata lebih kuat daripada dugaan kami. Walaupun penurunan indeks-indeks saham di Amerika Serikat dan Eropa sudah melambat semalam (3/8) masing-masing di kisaran -0.2% dan 0.7%, aksi jual di pasar obligasi menguat. Hal ini tercermin dari penurunan indeks obligasi EMBI untuk emerging market sebesar -0.6% serta kenaikan imbal hasil (yield) 10Y UST dan Bund masing-masing sebesar 10 dan 7 bps menjadi 4.18% dan 2.61%. Aksi jual di pasar obligasi domestik juga meluas yang mencakup instrumen INDON dan INDOGB 10Y, yang yieldnya naik 11 dan 4 bps menjadi 5.09% dan 6.3%. Yield INDON 5Y juga naik 8 bps menjadi 5.03%. Hal ini menimbulkan ketidakpastian di pasar obligasi global dan domestik. Kami melihat kenaikan yield obligasi 10Y INDON maupun INDOGB akan membuat pasar obligasi domestik lebih baik karena a) Perbaikan kurva yield di pasar INDON dari inverted menjadi flattened dan b) yield INDOGB 10Y naik semakin dekat floor limit JIBOR 1M di 6.4%. Kami memprediksi yield INDOGB 10Y akan naik menuju rentang 6.3-6.4% hari ini. Depresiasi Rupiah berpotensi terhenti dan bergerak stabil dalam rentang IDR 15,100-200 per USD.

 

Fixed Income News: Bank BJB berencana terbitkan perpetual bond dengan nilai IDR 1-1.5tn. Penerbitan obligasi ini direncanakan berlangsung mulai bulan ini hingga September untuk mencukup pemenuhan kebutuhan modal tier-1. PT Bank Pembangunan Daerah Jawa Barat masih belum menentukan bearan kupon bunga yang akan ditawarkan. (Emitennews)

Global Economic News: Bank Sentral Inggris (BOE) menaikkan suku bunga acuan 25 bps menjadi 5.25%. Dalam pengumumannya, Gubernur BOE Andrew Bailey mengatakan suku bunga acuan perbankan sekarang sudah berada di level restriktif. Akan tetapi, keputusan suku bunga di masa mendatang akan bergantung kepada seberapa cepat proses disinflasi berjalan. Oleh sebab itu, masih ada kemungkinan kenaikan suku bunga di pertemuan BOE berikutnya bila penurunan inflasi menuju target FY23 BOE di 4.9% yoy (Jun: 7.9% yoy). (The Associated Press)

Domestic Economic News: Pemerintah perketat penjualan Solar bersubsidi dan Pertalite. Tindakan ini diambil karena kuota Solar bersubsidi (17 juta kiloliter) dan Pertalite (32.56 juta kl) terancam tidak mencukupi hingga akhir tahun. Hal ini disebabkan naiknya konsumsi BBM menjadi 14.8 juta kl pada 1H23 (1H22: 8.3 juta kl). Kami memperkirakan pemerintah akan menaikkan kuota subsidi BBM untuk tahun ini. (Kontan)

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Samuel's Daily Macro and Fixed Income Report 4 Agustus 2023 (Ind)
Samuel's Daily Macro and Fixed Income Report 4 Agustus 2023 (Eng)

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Samuel's Daily Macro and Fixed Income Report 4 Agustus 2023 (Ind)
Samuel's Daily Macro and Fixed Income Report 4 Agustus 2023 (Eng)

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